HUMANITYVECTOR

Forecast lab

Scorecard

How every model family performs out of sample, by horizon and by target, and every production forecast that missed its interval. Misses stay visible; a model that fails should show it.

Modeled

Families by horizon

mean skill versus last value across targets (1 - MAE / MAE of last value), mean 80 percent coverage, and how many (target, horizon) cells the family is champion of
Familyh = 1h = 2h = 3h = 5h = 6h = 12
Last value0.0%
cov 81% · champion 2/9
0.0%
cov 80% · champion 0/4
0.0%
cov 84% · champion 2/5
0.0%
cov 71% · champion 0/4
0.0%
cov 79% · champion 2/5
0.0%
cov 89% · champion 2/5
Seasonal naive-314.0%
cov 83% · champion 1/5
n/a-85.7%
cov 83% · champion 1/5
n/a-24.5%
cov 85% · champion 1/5
0.0%
cov 89% · champion 0/5
Drift19.6%
cov 74% · champion 0/9
37.2%
cov 58% · champion 0/4
9.4%
cov 79% · champion 2/5
34.5%
cov 38% · champion 0/4
-2.5%
cov 77% · champion 2/5
-14.4%
cov 83% · champion 2/5
Linear trend-56.9%
cov 69% · champion 0/9
54.6%
cov 55% · champion 0/4
-54.7%
cov 75% · champion 0/5
60.5%
cov 50% · champion 0/4
-54.3%
cov 75% · champion 0/5
-102.5%
cov 72% · champion 0/5
Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)25.9%
cov 74% · champion 4/9
54.0%
cov 58% · champion 2/4
-8.0%
cov 81% · champion 0/5
66.6%
cov 35% · champion 3/4
-31.3%
cov 84% · champion 0/5
-75.2%
cov 85% · champion 0/5
Ridge regression on lags and drivers24.1%
cov 73% · champion 2/8
53.9%
cov 56% · champion 2/3
14.8%
cov 79% · champion 0/5
59.8%
cov 31% · champion 1/3
11.7%
cov 77% · champion 0/5
15.6%
cov 85% · champion 1/5

Every registered model

177 rows; a champion is promoted only by beating last value by at least 5 percent over the minimum cutoffs
TargetHModelStatusCutoffsMAERMSEDirection80% coverageSkill vs last valueLive evaluations
cereal-yield:WLD1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion1662.36100.175%81%13.1%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1674.25110.975%81%-3.5%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline1671.77102.20%81%0.0%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1675.01106.163%75%-4.5%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1665.110375%81%9.3%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD2Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion1572.74111.393%87%29.3%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD2Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1599.2213193%80%3.6%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD2Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1581.85112.993%80%20.5%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD2Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline15102.91270%87%0.0%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD2Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1590.98121.987%67%11.6%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD5Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion12142.218292%42%44.4%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD5Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger12170.1225.292%42%33.5%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD5Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger12154.3197.192%42%39.6%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD5Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline12255.7274.30%83%0.0%none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD5Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger12158.3217.492%50%38.1%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion160.31390.4881100%75%87.2%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger160.66520.7877100%81%72.8%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline162.452.490%81%0.0%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger160.55950.7006100%50%77.1%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD2Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion150.56320.7726100%67%88.5%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD2Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger151.341.46100%67%72.6%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD2Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline154.884.920%60%0.0%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD2Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger150.79330.9657100%53%83.7%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD5Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion121.411.62100%42%88.4%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD5Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger123.43.46100%50%72.0%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD5Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline1212.1412.160%17%0.0%none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD5Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger121.661.96100%83%86.4%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion47317.9411.50%83%0.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger47316.6401.953%81%0.4%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger47373.7440.345%79%-17.5%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger471,0391,31047%81%-226.8%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger47318.3411.753%81%-0.1%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD1Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger471,3391,74951%74%-321.3%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion45566.1779.771%84%7.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger45785.3999.149%87%-29.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline45608.7825.80%84%0.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger451,2601,51142%87%-107.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger45620.5838.929%84%-1.9%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD3Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger451,3151,74151%76%-116.1%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion42895.61,18174%83%7.9%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421,3821,74750%86%-42.1%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline42972.31,2880%83%0.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421,6661,89043%79%-71.4%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421,0041,32826%83%-3.2%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD6Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421,3231,77055%76%-36.1%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion361,1371,61586%75%16.5%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger362,2022,82442%83%-61.6%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline361,3631,8580%75%0.0%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger362,2732,65753%61%-66.8%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger361,4281,92814%75%-4.8%none realised yet
copper-price:WLD12Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger361,3631,8580%75%0.0%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion160.27490.559388%56%35.2%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger160.33760.566188%63%20.4%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger160.31590.716588%50%25.5%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline160.42410.58160%69%0.0%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger160.34750.57775%31%18.1%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD2Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion150.41830.788287%40%41.1%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD2Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger150.53130.820987%47%25.2%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD2Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger150.62151.2373%60%12.5%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD2Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline150.71050.85640%73%0.0%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD2Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger150.42070.698180%33%40.8%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD5Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion120.52160.716492%8%47.0%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD5Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger121.111.2792%25%-12.3%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD5Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline120.98491.050%83%0.0%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD5Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger120.64840.902192%8%34.2%none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD5Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger120.55060.815892%8%44.1%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion460.45940.653296%85%47.4%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger460.47070.65296%83%46.1%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger460.5160.762696%91%40.9%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline460.87321.030%89%0.0%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger463.323.9780%67%-280.5%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA1Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4611.1811.914%96%-1180.9%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion440.89191.2100%68%63.9%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger441.281.62100%77%48.2%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline442.472.730%93%0.0%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger444.265.0291%57%-72.7%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger440.9061.25100%66%63.3%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA3Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4410.6911.210%98%-333.3%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion411.021.32100%68%78.7%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger411.632.13100%90%65.8%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline414.774.90%90%0.0%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger415.746.75100%54%-20.5%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger411.091.39100%76%77.0%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA6Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger419.9210.20%100%-108.1%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
champion361.752.26100%81%81.2%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger361.832.13100%61%80.3%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger363.234.23100%75%65.2%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline369.299.390%100%0.0%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger369.3511.05100%44%-0.6%none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA12Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger369.299.390%100%0.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4710,85113,49896%87%65.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4731,09036,29647%72%-0.3%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4732,18637,62426%74%-3.8%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline4731,00536,2310%72%0.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4734,92942,09357%77%-12.7%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4728,29933,98264%72%8.7%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4510,93113,54984%89%79.2%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4552,65065,26053%82%-0.3%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4556,06969,66920%80%-6.9%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline4552,47264,8530%82%0.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4535,31042,59287%78%32.7%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA3Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4545,02058,58960%89%14.2%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4211,29213,93195%86%70.6%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4239,21349,20343%79%-2.1%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4245,61657,76526%79%-18.7%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline4238,42548,5780%79%0.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4232,66138,80067%79%15.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA6Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4237,82447,85055%79%1.6%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
champion369,31211,45278%89%13.6%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3624,56528,64642%89%-128.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline3610,77613,4340%89%0.0%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3630,89136,40967%83%-186.7%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger369,73812,46272%92%9.6%none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA12Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3610,77613,4340%89%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4779.79103.974%74%16.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4794.99118.953%74%-0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline4794.96118.90%74%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger47102.7134.166%74%-8.2%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4793.44117.853%74%1.6%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA1Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger47128.6170.162%79%-35.5%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4598.11121.50%76%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4598.34121.647%76%-0.2%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4594.6611656%71%3.5%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger45110.5147.462%73%-12.6%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4597.84119.747%73%0.3%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA3Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger45129.117260%80%-31.6%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion4293.791130%81%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4293.89113.257%81%-0.1%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4291.89111.860%83%2.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger42115.2154.774%74%-22.8%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger4292.19111.857%81%1.7%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA6Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger42114152.267%88%-21.5%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion3693.69118.30%94%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3693.67118.258%92%0.0%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3699.93122.656%92%-6.7%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger36154.4193.761%72%-64.8%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3691.6113.958%92%2.2%none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA12Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger3693.69118.30%94%0.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion470.43160.55010%83%0.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger470.46520.585351%83%-7.8%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger470.53670.685443%87%-24.4%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger471.091.3349%94%-152.1%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger470.43480.55251%83%-0.7%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA1Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger470.85171.0260%77%-97.3%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion450.640.76220%84%0.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger450.78950.98351%84%-23.4%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger450.99871.349%89%-56.1%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger451.371.6544%82%-114.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger450.65240.782551%82%-1.9%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA3Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger450.81170.9660%73%-26.8%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion420.65940.87980%62%0.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421.31.564%74%-96.9%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421.742.2148%83%-163.6%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger421.792.0945%93%-171.6%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger420.78310.942864%67%-18.8%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA6Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger420.84080.984645%74%-27.5%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
champion360.91581.050%86%0.0%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger362.592.7858%97%-182.4%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger363.164.0247%86%-245.1%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger362.693.2431%100%-193.6%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger361.011.2558%86%-10.2%none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA12Seasonal naive
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger360.91581.050%86%0.0%none realised yet
world-population:WLD1Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion163,458,2494,396,719100%50%95.7%none realised yet
world-population:WLD1Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1642,147,91243,232,101100%50%48.1%none realised yet
world-population:WLD1Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline1681,203,54481,519,3440%100%0.0%none realised yet
world-population:WLD1Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1618,330,38122,564,954100%69%77.4%none realised yet
world-population:WLD1Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger167,231,8649,955,672100%50%91.1%none realised yet
world-population:WLD2Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion158,984,99410,834,692100%27%94.5%none realised yet
world-population:WLD2Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1585,607,97787,696,122100%40%47.4%none realised yet
world-population:WLD2Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline15162,619,610163,220,5960%100%0.0%none realised yet
world-population:WLD2Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1528,681,36234,741,889100%67%82.4%none realised yet
world-population:WLD2Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1514,464,12219,964,410100%40%91.1%none realised yet
world-population:WLD5Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)
models_v1.targets_v1
champion1235,742,30041,925,467100%50%91.2%none realised yet
world-population:WLD5Drift
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger12225,271,426229,591,978100%33%44.6%none realised yet
world-population:WLD5Last value
models_v1.targets_v1
baseline12406,812,060408,023,9010%100%0.0%none realised yet
world-population:WLD5Linear trend
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1267,857,26578,527,034100%58%83.3%none realised yet
world-population:WLD5Ridge regression on lags and drivers
models_v1.targets_v1
challenger1237,327,11045,684,477100%42%90.8%none realised yet

Interval misses

none recorded

No production forecast has missed its interval yet. About one in five should, over time; a rate far below that means the intervals are too wide, far above means they are too narrow.

Backtest history

one row per model per backtest window, newest first
Model keyWindowCutoffsMAESkillComputed
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)151.3472.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)123.472.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)160.559577.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)150.793383.7%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)121.6686.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)160.313987.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)150.563288.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)121.4188.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1212.140.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)162.450.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)160.665272.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)154.880.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1674.25-3.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)12255.70.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1671.770.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)15102.90.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)12142.244.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1572.7429.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1665.19.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)12154.339.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1581.8520.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1662.3613.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)12158.338.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1590.9811.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1675.01-4.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)12170.133.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)1599.223.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)160.274935.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)120.550644.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)150.418341.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)120.521647.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)150.621512.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)160.315925.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)120.648434.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)150.420740.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)160.347518.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)121.11-12.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)150.531325.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)160.337620.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)120.98490.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)150.71050.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)160.42410.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1528,681,36282.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1618,330,38177.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)12225,271,42644.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1585,607,97747.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1642,147,91248.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)12406,812,0600.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)15162,619,6100.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1681,203,5440.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1514,464,12291.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)167,231,86491.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1235,742,30091.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1237,327,11090.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)158,984,99494.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)163,458,24995.7%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)1267,857,26583.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)361.8380.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)411.0278.7%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)419.92-108.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)4410.69-333.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)4611.18-1180.9%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)369.290.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)414.770.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)442.470.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)440.891963.9%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)460.87320.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)369.290.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)361.7581.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)411.0977.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)440.90663.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)460.459447.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)363.2365.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)411.6365.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)441.2848.2%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)460.51640.9%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)369.35-0.6%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)415.74-20.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)460.470746.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)444.26-72.7%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-07-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)463.32-280.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)47373.7-17.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)47316.60.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)47317.90.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)45608.70.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)42972.30.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:last_value:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)361,3630.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)471,339-321.3%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)451,315-116.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)421,323-36.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)361,3630.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)45566.17.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)42895.67.9%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:drift:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)361,13716.5%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)471,039-226.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)451,260-107.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)421,666-71.4%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)362,273-66.8%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)45785.3-29.0%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:holt:models_v1.targets_v12022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)421,382-42.1%2026-09-07 22:16 UTC