Forecast lab

Scorecard

How every model family performs out of sample, by horizon and by target, and every production forecast that missed its interval. Misses stay visible; a model that fails should show it.

Modeled

Families by horizon

mean skill versus last value across targets (1 - MAE / MAE of last value), mean 80 percent coverage, and how many (target, horizon) cells the family is champion of

Family	h = 1	h = 2	h = 3	h = 5	h = 6	h = 12
Last value	0.0% cov 82% · champion 2/9	0.0% cov 80% · champion 0/4	0.0% cov 84% · champion 2/5	0.0% cov 71% · champion 0/4	0.0% cov 79% · champion 2/5	0.0% cov 89% · champion 2/5
Seasonal naive	-300.1% cov 83% · champion 1/5	n/a	-85.9% cov 84% · champion 1/5	n/a	-22.6% cov 85% · champion 1/5	0.0% cov 89% · champion 0/5
Drift	19.9% cov 74% · champion 0/9	37.2% cov 58% · champion 0/4	9.8% cov 79% · champion 1/5	34.5% cov 38% · champion 0/4	-0.1% cov 77% · champion 2/5	-10.8% cov 83% · champion 2/5
Linear trend	-54.3% cov 69% · champion 0/9	54.6% cov 55% · champion 0/4	-53.6% cov 75% · champion 0/5	60.5% cov 50% · champion 0/4	-51.4% cov 74% · champion 0/5	-99.7% cov 73% · champion 0/5
Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend)	26.5% cov 74% · champion 4/9	54.0% cov 58% · champion 2/4	-7.9% cov 81% · champion 0/5	66.6% cov 35% · champion 3/4	-30.1% cov 85% · champion 0/5	-72.3% cov 85% · champion 0/5
Ridge regression on lags and drivers	24.7% cov 73% · champion 2/8	53.9% cov 56% · champion 2/3	14.5% cov 79% · champion 1/5	59.8% cov 31% · champion 1/3	13.3% cov 77% · champion 0/5	16.4% cov 84% · champion 1/5

Every registered model

177 rows; a champion is promoted only by beating last value by at least 5 percent over the minimum cutoffs

Target	H	Model	Status	Cutoffs	MAE	RMSE	Direction	80% coverage	Skill vs last value	Live evaluations
cereal-yield:WLD	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	16	62.36	100.1	75%	81%	13.1%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	74.25	110.9	75%	81%	-3.5%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	16	71.77	102.2	0%	81%	0.0%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	75.01	106.1	63%	75%	-4.5%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	65.1	103	75%	81%	9.3%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	2	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	15	72.74	111.3	93%	87%	29.3%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	2	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	99.22	131	93%	80%	3.6%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	2	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	81.85	112.9	93%	80%	20.5%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	2	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	15	102.9	127	0%	87%	0.0%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	2	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	90.98	121.9	87%	67%	11.6%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	5	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	12	142.2	182	92%	42%	44.4%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	5	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	170.1	225.2	92%	42%	33.5%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	5	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	154.3	197.1	92%	42%	39.6%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	5	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	12	255.7	274.3	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
cereal-yield:WLD	5	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	158.3	217.4	92%	50%	38.1%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	16	0.3139	0.4881	100%	75%	87.2%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	0.6652	0.7877	100%	81%	72.8%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	16	2.45	2.49	0%	81%	0.0%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	0.5595	0.7006	100%	50%	77.1%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	2	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	15	0.5632	0.7726	100%	67%	88.5%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	2	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	1.34	1.46	100%	67%	72.6%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	2	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	15	4.88	4.92	0%	60%	0.0%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	2	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	0.7933	0.9657	100%	53%	83.7%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	5	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	12	1.41	1.62	100%	42%	88.4%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	5	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	3.4	3.46	100%	50%	72.0%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	5	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	12	12.14	12.16	0%	17%	0.0%	none realised yet
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD	5	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	1.66	1.96	100%	83%	86.4%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	47	317.9	411.5	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	316.6	401.9	53%	81%	0.4%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	373.7	440.3	45%	79%	-17.5%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	1,039	1,310	47%	81%	-226.8%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	318.3	411.7	53%	81%	-0.1%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	1	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	1,339	1,749	51%	74%	-321.3%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	champion	45	566.1	779.7	71%	84%	7.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	785.3	999.1	49%	87%	-29.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	45	608.7	825.8	0%	84%	0.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	1,260	1,511	42%	87%	-107.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	620.5	838.9	29%	84%	-1.9%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	3	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	1,315	1,741	51%	76%	-116.1%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	champion	42	895.6	1,181	74%	83%	7.9%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1,382	1,747	50%	86%	-42.1%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	42	972.3	1,288	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1,666	1,890	43%	79%	-71.4%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1,004	1,328	26%	83%	-3.2%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	6	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1,323	1,770	55%	76%	-36.1%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	champion	36	1,137	1,615	86%	75%	16.5%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	2,202	2,824	42%	83%	-61.6%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	36	1,363	1,858	0%	75%	0.0%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	2,273	2,657	53%	61%	-66.8%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	1,428	1,928	14%	75%	-4.8%	none realised yet
copper-price:WLD	12	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	1,363	1,858	0%	75%	0.0%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	16	0.2749	0.5593	88%	56%	35.2%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	0.3376	0.5661	88%	63%	20.4%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	0.3159	0.7165	88%	50%	25.5%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	16	0.4241	0.5816	0%	69%	0.0%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	0.3475	0.577	75%	31%	18.1%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	2	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	15	0.4183	0.7882	87%	40%	41.1%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	2	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	0.5313	0.8209	87%	47%	25.2%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	2	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	0.6215	1.23	73%	60%	12.5%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	2	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	15	0.7105	0.8564	0%	73%	0.0%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	2	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	0.4207	0.6981	80%	33%	40.8%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	5	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	12	0.5216	0.7164	92%	8%	47.0%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	5	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	1.11	1.27	92%	25%	-12.3%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	5	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	12	0.9849	1.05	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	5	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	0.6484	0.9021	92%	8%	34.2%	none realised yet
life-expectancy:WLD	5	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	0.5506	0.8158	92%	8%	44.1%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	46	0.4638	0.6565	96%	85%	48.3%	2 scored, MAE 1.03, coverage 50% (1 miss)
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	46	0.464	0.6467	96%	83%	48.3%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	46	0.4919	0.7212	96%	91%	45.2%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	46	0.8978	1.05	0%	89%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	46	3.21	3.88	83%	65%	-258.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	1	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	46	10.93	11.55	4%	96%	-1117.7%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	44	0.9221	1.27	100%	64%	61.6%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	44	0.9424	1.27	100%	66%	60.7%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	44	1.32	1.72	100%	77%	44.9%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	44	2.4	2.69	0%	93%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	44	4.14	4.92	91%	55%	-72.4%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	3	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	44	10.45	10.86	0%	98%	-335.4%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	champion	41	1.03	1.33	100%	66%	78.5%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	41	1.53	1.94	100%	90%	68.1%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	41	4.79	4.93	0%	88%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	41	5.66	6.71	100%	51%	-18.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	41	1.09	1.39	100%	73%	77.2%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	6	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	41	9.75	9.96	0%	100%	-103.3%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	champion	36	1.7	2.19	100%	81%	81.8%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	1.82	2.13	100%	61%	80.5%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	2.88	3.55	100%	78%	69.1%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	36	9.32	9.43	0%	100%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	9.31	11.04	100%	44%	0.1%	none realised yet
us-cpi-all-items:USA	12	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	9.32	9.43	0%	100%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	champion	47	10,851	13,498	96%	87%	65.0%	2 scored, MAE 6,386, coverage 100%
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	31,090	36,296	47%	72%	-0.3%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	32,186	37,624	26%	74%	-3.8%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	47	31,005	36,231	0%	72%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	34,929	42,093	57%	77%	-12.7%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	27,259	32,615	68%	72%	12.1%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	champion	45	10,931	13,549	84%	89%	79.2%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	52,650	65,260	53%	82%	-0.3%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	56,069	69,669	20%	80%	-6.9%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	45	52,472	64,853	0%	82%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	35,310	42,592	87%	78%	32.7%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	3	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	45,607	57,403	56%	87%	13.1%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	champion	42	11,292	13,931	95%	86%	70.6%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	39,213	49,203	43%	79%	-2.1%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	45,616	57,765	26%	79%	-18.7%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	42	38,425	48,578	0%	79%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	32,661	38,800	67%	79%	15.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	6	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	36,312	46,835	62%	79%	5.5%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	champion	36	9,312	11,452	78%	89%	13.6%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	24,565	28,646	42%	89%	-128.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	36	10,776	13,434	0%	89%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	30,891	36,409	67%	83%	-186.7%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	9,817	12,323	78%	89%	8.9%	none realised yet
us-electricity-net-generation:USA	12	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	10,776	13,434	0%	89%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	47	78.47	103.5	74%	77%	16.2%	1 scored, MAE 5.61, coverage 100%
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	93.71	118.1	51%	77%	-0.1%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	47	93.66	118.1	0%	77%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	98.12	129.7	68%	79%	-4.8%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	92.36	117.1	51%	77%	1.4%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	1	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	126	168.3	64%	81%	-34.5%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	45	95.91	119.2	0%	78%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	96.18	119.4	44%	78%	-0.3%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	91.94	113.2	56%	73%	4.1%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	104	140.3	64%	78%	-8.5%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	96.2	117.9	44%	76%	-0.3%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	3	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	122.4	165.8	62%	84%	-27.6%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	42	91.12	110.1	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	91.19	110.4	57%	83%	-0.1%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	89.87	109.9	57%	86%	1.4%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	106.2	143.4	76%	76%	-16.5%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	90.04	110.1	57%	83%	1.2%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	6	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	105.3	141.5	69%	90%	-15.5%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	36	87	110.6	0%	97%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	86.89	110.6	58%	94%	0.1%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	93.62	116.7	56%	89%	-7.6%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	140.2	172.5	61%	75%	-61.1%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	87.02	110.1	58%	94%	-0.0%	none realised yet
us-housing-starts:USA	12	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	87	110.6	0%	97%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	47	0.4353	0.5527	0%	83%	0.0%	2 scored, MAE 0.4783, coverage 50% (1 miss)
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	0.4674	0.5865	53%	83%	-7.4%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	0.5348	0.6849	47%	87%	-22.9%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	1.11	1.35	47%	94%	-154.2%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	0.4352	0.554	53%	81%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	1	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	0.8364	0.9841	57%	74%	-92.1%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	45	0.6553	0.7738	0%	84%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	0.773	0.9758	53%	84%	-18.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	1	1.3	49%	89%	-52.6%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	1.4	1.66	44%	78%	-113.1%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	0.6544	0.7853	53%	82%	0.1%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	3	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	45	0.8479	0.993	58%	73%	-29.4%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	42	0.6828	0.9071	0%	62%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1.26	1.47	67%	74%	-84.7%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1.77	2.22	48%	83%	-159.3%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	1.82	2.11	45%	86%	-165.9%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	0.781	0.9425	67%	67%	-14.4%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	6	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	42	0.8777	1.02	43%	74%	-28.6%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	champion	36	0.9564	1.08	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	2.53	2.73	61%	97%	-164.5%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	3.19	4.03	47%	86%	-233.3%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	2.72	3.26	31%	100%	-184.0%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	0.9953	1.24	61%	83%	-4.1%	none realised yet
us-industrial-production:USA	12	Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	36	0.9564	1.08	0%	83%	0.0%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	1	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	16	3,458,249	4,396,719	100%	50%	95.7%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	1	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	42,147,912	43,232,101	100%	50%	48.1%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	1	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	16	81,203,544	81,519,344	0%	100%	0.0%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	1	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	18,330,381	22,564,954	100%	69%	77.4%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	1	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	16	7,231,864	9,955,672	100%	50%	91.1%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	2	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	15	8,984,994	10,834,692	100%	27%	94.5%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	2	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	85,607,977	87,696,122	100%	40%	47.4%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	2	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	15	162,619,610	163,220,596	0%	100%	0.0%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	2	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	28,681,362	34,741,889	100%	67%	82.4%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	2	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	15	14,464,122	19,964,410	100%	40%	91.1%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	5	Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	champion	12	35,742,300	41,925,467	100%	50%	91.2%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	5	Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	225,271,426	229,591,978	100%	33%	44.6%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	5	Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	12	406,812,060	408,023,901	0%	100%	0.0%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	5	Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	67,857,265	78,527,034	100%	58%	83.3%	none realised yet
world-population:WLD	5	Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	12	37,327,110	45,684,477	100%	42%	90.8%	none realised yet

Interval misses

2 production forecasts whose realised value fell outside the 80 percent interval

us-cpi-all-items:USA:1 · 2026-09Ridge regression on lags and drivers · evaluated 2026-10-19 00:22 UTC

forecast 334.8 [334.3, 335.5], realised 336.3, absolute error 1.45

Interval miss: realised 336.3 index 1982-1984=100 is above the upper bound 335.5 index 1982-1984=100 by 0.7627 index 1982-1984=100. Model ridge; error 1.45 index 1982-1984=100 (0.43 percent of the origin value). The surprise came from the target itself moving outside the range of its recent lagged-driver errors; a structural break after the cutoff is possible and is not ruled out by the record. Assumption "no structural break between cutoff and target" is the first suspect.

us-industrial-production:USA:1 · 2026-09Last value · evaluated 2026-10-19 00:22 UTC

forecast 103.1 [102.6, 103.9], realised 104, absolute error 0.8824

Interval miss: realised 104 index 2017=100 is above the upper bound 103.9 index 2017=100 by 0.0126 index 2017=100. Model last_value; error 0.8824 index 2017=100 (0.86 percent of the origin value). The surprise came from the target itself moving outside the range of its recent own-history errors; a structural break after the cutoff is possible and is not ruled out by the record. Assumption "no structural break between cutoff and target" is the first suspect.

Backtest history

one row per model per backtest window, newest first

Model key	Window	Cutoffs	MAE	Skill	Computed
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.3139	87.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	1.66	86.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.7933	83.7%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.5595	77.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	3.4	72.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	1.34	72.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.6652	72.8%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	12.14	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	4.88	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	2.45	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	1.41	88.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.5632	88.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	74.25	-3.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	255.7	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	71.77	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	102.9	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	142.2	44.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	72.74	29.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	65.1	9.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	154.3	39.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	81.85	20.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	62.36	13.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	158.3	38.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	90.98	11.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	75.01	-4.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	170.1	33.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
cereal-yield:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	99.22	3.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.4207	40.8%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	0.5506	44.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.4183	41.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.2749	35.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	0.5216	47.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.6215	12.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.3159	25.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	0.6484	34.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.3475	18.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	1.11	-12.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.5313	25.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.3376	20.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	0.9849	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	0.7105	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
life-expectancy:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2008-01-01..2023-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	0.4241	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	162,619,610	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	37,327,110	90.8%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	14,464,122	91.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	7,231,864	91.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	35,742,300	91.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	8,984,994	94.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	3,458,249	95.7%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	67,857,265	83.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	81,203,544	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	28,681,362	82.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	18,330,381	77.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	225,271,426	44.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:2:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	15	85,607,977	47.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	16	42,147,912	48.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
world-population:WLD:5:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2009-01-01..2024-01-01 (first_ingested)	12	406,812,060	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	10.45	-335.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	1.7	81.8%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	1.09	77.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	0.9221	61.6%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	0.4638	48.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	2.88	69.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	1.53	68.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	1.32	44.9%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	0.4919	45.2%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	9.31	0.1%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	5.66	-18.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	4.14	-72.4%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	3.21	-258.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	1.82	80.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	1.03	78.5%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	0.9424	60.7%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	0.464	48.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	9.32	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	9.75	-103.3%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	10.93	-1117.7%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:12:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	36	9.32	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:6:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	41	4.79	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:3:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	44	2.4	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
us-cpi-all-items:USA:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-07-01 (first_ingested)	46	0.8978	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:03 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:last_value:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	47	317.9	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	36	1,428	-4.8%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	42	1,004	-3.2%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	45	620.5	-1.9%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:ridge:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	47	318.3	-0.1%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	36	2,202	-61.6%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	42	1,382	-42.1%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	45	785.3	-29.0%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:holt:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	47	373.7	-17.5%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	36	2,273	-66.8%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	42	1,666	-71.4%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	45	1,260	-107.0%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:linear_trend:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	47	1,039	-226.8%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	36	1,137	16.5%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	42	895.6	7.9%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:3:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	45	566.1	7.0%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:1:drift:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	47	316.6	0.4%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:12:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	36	1,363	0.0%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC
copper-price:WLD:6:seasonal_naive:models_v1.targets_v1	2022-08-01..2026-06-01 (first_ingested)	42	1,323	-36.1%	2026-10-01 00:02 UTC