Bottleneck and Response monitor
What is preventing us from making more?
Six constraint records, each with two separate signals: pressure (how constrained the system is, a weighted percentile of its components against their own histories) and response (how much capacity is being added, from the EIA-860M pipeline or the capex of the tagged companies). The status label is a pure function of documented thresholds; a record without enough data says so.
Records
Pressure, response, status
| Record | Status | Pressure | Coverage | Response | Lead time | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper WLD · copper | insufficient data | 85 | 25% 1 of 6 | none registered | 10 to 20 yr | 2026-07-01 |
| Electricity transmission and interconnection USA · power-grid | watch | 69 | 55% 3 of 6 | 0.97 (pipeline / additions) | 7 to 15 yr | 2026-06-01 |
| Power transformers USA · power-transformer | constrained, response underway | 86 | 50% 2 of 5 | +30% capex yoy | 2 to 5 yr | 2026-07-01 |
| Advanced semiconductors WLD · semiconductor-fab | insufficient data | -- | 0% 0 of 4 | +18.2% capex yoy | 3 to 5 yr | 2026-09-03 |
| Battery materials WLD · no graph entity | insufficient data | -- | 0% 0 of 8 | none registered | 60 to 200 mo | 2026-10-19 |
| Skilled electrical workforce USA · construction-labor | insufficient data | -- | 0% 0 of 5 | none registered | 4 to 5 yr | 2026-10-19 |
Pressure is 0 to 100: the weighted mean of each present component's percentile rank within its own history. Coverage is the share of declared weight with data; below 50 percent no label is given. Response is a ratio (24-month pipeline over trailing additions) or capital expenditure growth, shown in its own unit and never folded into pressure. Lead time is recommended-class metadata with a citation on each record page.
bottleneck_thresholds_v1
Status thresholds
- constrained
- Pressure is at or above the 75th percentile and the response signal, where one exists, does not clear its threshold.
- constrained, response underway
- Pressure is at or above the 75th percentile and the response signal clears its threshold: a 24-month pipeline at least equal to trailing additions, or capex growth above 10 percent.
- watch
- Pressure is at or above the 60th percentile and below the 75th.
- below watch
- Pressure is below the 60th percentile of the components' own histories.
- insufficient data
- Fewer than half of the pressure components (by weight) have data. No pressure label is given.
minCoverage 0.5, watch 60, constrained 75, pipeline response 1, capex pulse 0.1
Bottleneck and Response monitor, model bottleneck_assessment_v1, thresholds bottleneck_thresholds_v1
A record shows two signals and never combines them.
Pressure (modeled): each available component is transformed (12-month percent change, year-over-year growth with the sign reversed for supply, level for shares and lead times), then replaced by its percentile rank (0 to 100) within its own stored history up to that period, ties counted half, after a minimum history. The score is the weighted mean of those ranks over the components present, renormalised. Coverage is the share of declared weight that has data; components without a registered source are declared with their weight, their role and candidate sources, and count against coverage. Weights are a modelling choice and are listed on every record.
Response: the capacity response ratio where a capacity pipeline exists (US electricity: the stage-weighted 24-month EIA-860M pipeline over the trailing 24 months of additions, modeled), otherwise the capital expenditure pulse of the tagged company group (matched-sample trailing-four-quarter capex growth from stored 10-K and 10-Q facts, derived), otherwise null with the reason.
Status comes only from these thresholds:
- insufficient data: coverage below 0.5, or no pressure score. No label is guessed.
- below watch: pressure below 60.
- watch: pressure at or above 60 and below 75.
- constrained: pressure at or above 75.
- constrained, response underway: constrained and the response signal clears its threshold (capacity response at or above 1.0, or capex pulse above 10 percent).
Lead time is recommended-class metadata from a small sourced table (src/data/lead-times.ts) and is stored with its citation. Substitutes and downstream systems come from the curated knowledge graph (edges where the record's entity is the dependency; entities within three hops that depend on it, with centrality_v1). Every number on a record traces to stored observation ids, pulse row ids or edge ids in the row's JSON.
Related
Where the inputs come from
Capacity
The EIA-860M pipeline, additions and the modeled capacity response that the electricity record reads.
Derived methods
The bottleneck-pressure candidate measure and the corporate pulses, with their formulas and versions.
Graph
The curated dependency graph that supplies substitutes, downstream systems and centrality.