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Global bottleneck monitor

What is preventing us from making more?

When demand for something useful outruns supply, the important question is not only how to reduce demand. This page will track the constraints that limit expansion: the inputs, machines, skills and infrastructure where capacity is tight, concentrated or slow to build.

No bottleneck is rated yet. Severity labels must come from documented thresholds on the factors listed below, not from editorial instinct. Those thresholds are not written and the dependency graph is not populated; the bottleneck, dependency and intervention tables exist and their row counts are shown below. Nothing on this page is a finding. The rules that will govern ratings are described on the Methods page.

Status

Rated bottlenecks

Bottlenecks rated

0

no thresholds documented

Dependency edges recorded

0

graph schema only

Candidate interventions

0

would be labelled Recommended

Schema

What a bottleneck record will contain

docs/02_PRODUCT_SPEC.md
Resource or capability
the thing in short supply, e.g. transformers, copper refining, skilled electricians
Affected systems
what depends on it, from the dependency graph
Severity
a label from documented thresholds, with the evidence that triggered it
Current utilization
share of capacity in use
Spare capacity
if known
Inventory or reserve margin
stock relative to consumption
Geographic concentration
share held by the top producers or regions
Substitution options
alternatives and how mature they are
Recycling and recovery options
secondary supply available
Expansion lead time
time to add meaningful capacity
Recent price behavior
observed, with source
Demand growth
observed, with source
Supply growth
observed, with source
Evidence links
every claim tied to a metric or a source record
Candidate interventions
labelled recommended, with cost, lead time and uncertainty
Uncertainty
what is unknown and how much it matters

Observed fields (utilization, prices, growth) will link to metric pages and carry the observed badge. Severity is derived from thresholds and will carry the derived badge together with the evidence that fired it. Interventions are recommendations and will be labelled as such. The kinds are never mixed inside a record.

Evidence

Factors a rating must be driven by

  1. 01capacity utilization
  2. 02inventory or reserve margin
  3. 03demand and supply growth gap
  4. 04price shock
  5. 05expansion lead time
  6. 06geographic concentration
  7. 07inability to substitute
  8. 08downstream dependency centrality

A rating stores both the label and the evidence. Until thresholds for these factors are published with a version, no label can be produced.

Dependency graph

Example chain, not data

The monitor will represent real dependencies as a graph so the system can ask what actually constrains an objective. This example from the product specification shows the shape of a chain; none of these edges are recorded yet.

  1. AI compute
  2. accelerators
  3. advanced semiconductor fabs
  4. lithography tools
  5. specialty chemicals
  6. ultrapure water
  7. electricity
  8. transformers
  9. copper and aluminium
  10. mining and refining
  11. energy, equipment and logistics

Meanwhile

What you can read today

  • Metric catalog

    Every ingested series with its source, unit, period, history and kind.

  • Civilization Vector

    Which component metrics of each dimension are live and which are not.

  • Methods

    How values are classified, ingested, revised and summarised, and what is deliberately not done yet.