Bottleneck record, bottleneck_assessment_v1
Advanced semiconductors
Leading-edge logic and high-bandwidth memory. No pressure component has a registered source yet, so the record is insufficient data by rule. Response is the semiconductor capacity capex pulse, with the AI infrastructure pulse shown as the demand side.
Reading
In plain words
No pressure score: 0 of 4 components have enough data (0 percent of the weight). That is below the 50 percent coverage the thresholds require, so no pressure label is given. Missing: Fab utilisation, Chip lead time, HBM supplier concentration, Equipment orders. The response signal is capital expenditure growth of +5.5 percent year over year across the tagged companies, not above the 10 percent threshold. Adding capacity takes 3 to 5 years by the cited source, so today's response is read against that horizon.
rules fired: coverage 0 < 0.5 (no pressure score)
Is the problem being solved?
Pressure and response
- pressure0 to 100, left
- capex growth (fraction)fraction yoy, right
--
0 to 100, coverage 0%, 0 of 4 components
5.5%
capex growth yoy, threshold 10%, as of 2026-07-03
Pressure components
Percentiles, weights and what is missing
| Component | Weight | Series and transform | Percentile | Raw | Period | History | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Fab utilisation Leading-edge foundry and memory fab utilisation. | 0.3 | no registered series | -- | -- | -- | -- | missing no utilisation series is registered candidates: SIA/WSTS; foundry quarterly reports |
Chip lead time Order-to-delivery lead time for advanced logic and HBM. | 0.25 | no registered series | -- | -- | -- | -- | missing no lead-time series is registered candidates: Susquehanna lead-time survey; ECIA |
HBM supplier concentration Share of HBM output from the largest supplier. | 0.2 | no registered series | -- | -- | -- | -- | missing no HBM market share series is registered candidates: TrendForce; company filings |
Equipment orders Wafer fab equipment bookings. | 0.25 | no registered series | -- | -- | -- | -- | missing no equipment order series is registered candidates: SEMI WWSEMS; Japan SEAJ |
Response detail
What the response signal rests on
Pulse semiconductor_capacity, row 1, pulses.v1, 10 of 10 members contribute.
| Company | Latest capex | Prior | Period end |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVIDIA CORP | 6.042B | 3.236B | 2026-01-25 |
| ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC | 0.974B | 0.636B | 2025-12-27 |
| INTEL CORP | 14.646B | 23.944B | 2025-12-27 |
| TEXAS INSTRUMENTS INCORPORATED | 4.55B | 4.82B | 2025-12-31 |
| Broadcom Inc. | 0.623B | 0.548B | 2025-11-02 |
| APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE | 2.26B | 1.19B | 2025-10-26 |
| LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION | 0.9664B | 0.7592B | 2026-06-28 |
| KLA CORP | 0.3759B | 0.3353B | 2026-06-30 |
| Micron Technology, Inc. | 15.857B | 8.386B | 2025-08-28 |
| WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION | 0.418B | 0.412B | 2026-07-03 |
No extracted company signals stored for the tagged companies.
Alongside, not in the score: AI Infrastructure Pulse capex growth 70.1% as of 2026-07-03 (8 of 14 members, row 3).
Downstream
Systems that depend on it
| Entity | Type | Hops | Centrality |
|---|---|---|---|
| High bandwidth memory | product | 1 | 2.475 |
| AI accelerator | product | 1 | 1.75 |
| AI compute | technology | 2 | 0.75 |
| Economic output | entity | 3 | 0.5 |
Substitutes
Named on the dependency edges
No substitute is named on any stored edge.
Expansion lead time
36 to 60 months
Leading-edge semiconductor fab, groundbreaking to volume production
A new 300 mm fab from groundbreaking through tool installation and qualification to volume output.
“A modern fab typically requires three to five years from groundbreaking to volume production.”
checked 2026-09-07
Evidence
Every number, by id
- pulsecorporate_pulses row 1 (semiconductor_capacity)10 contributing companies, pulses.v1
- pulsesupporting: corporate_pulses row 3 (ai_infrastructure)recorded alongside the score, not part of it
- entitygraph entity Semiconductor fabrication plant
- edgeAI accelerator depends on Semiconductor fabrication plant (requires_input, established_identity_or_engineering_relation, weight 1)
- edgeHigh bandwidth memory depends on Semiconductor fabrication plant (requires_input, established_identity_or_engineering_relation, weight 1)
- documentCongressional Research Service, Semiconductor Fabrication Facilities Funded by the CHIPS Act: Project Status and Considerations for Congress (R49031) (2026)lead time 36 to 60 months: A modern fab typically requires three to five years from groundbreaking to volume production.
Bottleneck and Response monitor, model bottleneck_assessment_v1, thresholds bottleneck_thresholds_v1
A record shows two signals and never combines them.
Pressure (modeled): each available component is transformed (12-month percent change, year-over-year growth with the sign reversed for supply, level for shares and lead times), then replaced by its percentile rank (0 to 100) within its own stored history up to that period, ties counted half, after a minimum history. The score is the weighted mean of those ranks over the components present, renormalised. Coverage is the share of declared weight that has data; components without a registered source are declared with their weight, their role and candidate sources, and count against coverage. Weights are a modelling choice and are listed on every record.
Response: the capacity response ratio where a capacity pipeline exists (US electricity: the stage-weighted 24-month EIA-860M pipeline over the trailing 24 months of additions, modeled), otherwise the capital expenditure pulse of the tagged company group (matched-sample trailing-four-quarter capex growth from stored 10-K and 10-Q facts, derived), otherwise null with the reason.
Status comes only from these thresholds:
- insufficient data: coverage below 0.5, or no pressure score. No label is guessed.
- below watch: pressure below 60.
- watch: pressure at or above 60 and below 75.
- constrained: pressure at or above 75.
- constrained, response underway: constrained and the response signal clears its threshold (capacity response at or above 1.0, or capex pulse above 10 percent).
Lead time is recommended-class metadata from a small sourced table (src/data/lead-times.ts) and is stored with its citation. Substitutes and downstream systems come from the curated knowledge graph (edges where the record's entity is the dependency; entities within three hops that depend on it, with centrality_v1). Every number on a record traces to stored observation ids, pulse row ids or edge ids in the row's JSON.
History
Assessments stored
| As of | Pressure | Coverage | Response | Status | Computed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | -- | 0% | 0.06 | insufficient data | 2026-09-07 |