Forecast lab
Forecasts
Modeled values, never measurements. Every forecast is an immutable record with its data cutoff, model, baseline comparison, drivers (statistical associations, not causes), assumptions and falsifiers, and is scored against the observation that later arrives. A model becomes champion only by beating the last-value baseline out of sample; where none does, the baseline is the champion and this page says so.
Modeled
models_v1, targets_v1. Families: last value, seasonal naive, drift, linear trend, Holt, ridge on lags and drivers. Intervals: empirical residual quantiles at 80 percent. Promotion: at least 5 percent lower MAE than last value over at least 24 monthly or 8 annual cutoffs. Full scorecard.
Annual targets
horizons 1, 2 and 5 years beyond the last observed year
WLD · annual
World population
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 95.7 percent over 16 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 95.7% over 16 cutoffs, MAE 3,458,249 | 2026: 8,291,408,074 80% 8,285,853,010 to 8,294,904,994 people · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 2 years | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 94.5 percent over 15 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 94.5% over 15 cutoffs, MAE 8,984,994 | 2027: 8,367,893,531 80% 8,345,970,059 to 8,375,440,699 people · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 5 years | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 91.2 percent over 12 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 91.2% over 12 cutoffs, MAE 35,742,300 | 2030: 8,601,609,314 80% 8,536,707,706 to 8,601,609,314 people · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
WLD · annual
Life expectancy at birth
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 35.2 percent over 16 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 35.2% over 16 cutoffs, MAE 0.2749 | 2025: 73.69 80% 72.84 to 73.83 years · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 2 years | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 41.1 percent over 15 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 41.1% over 15 cutoffs, MAE 0.4183 | 2026: 73.89 80% 73.02 to 74.26 years · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 5 years | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 47.0 percent over 12 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 47.0% over 12 cutoffs, MAE 0.5216 | 2029: 75.05 80% 74.24 to 75.05 years · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
WLD · annual
Cereal yield
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 13.1 percent over 16 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 13.1% over 16 cutoffs, MAE 62.36 | 2025: 4,054 80% 3,939 to 4,093 kg per hectare · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 2 years | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 29.3 percent over 15 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 29.3% over 15 cutoffs, MAE 72.74 | 2026: 4,026 80% 3,927 to 4,113 kg per hectare · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 5 years | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 44.4 percent over 12 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 44.4% over 12 cutoffs, MAE 142.2 | 2029: 4,170 80% 4,012 to 4,364 kg per hectare · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
WLD · annual
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 year | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 87.2 percent over 16 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 87.2% over 16 cutoffs, MAE 0.3139 | 2026: 428.3 80% 428.1 to 429.3 ppm · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 2 years | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 88.5 percent over 15 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 88.5% over 15 cutoffs, MAE 0.5632 | 2027: 431 80% 430.8 to 432.5 ppm · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 5 years | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 88.4 percent over 12 cutoffs (minimum 8, margin 5 percent). | 88.4% over 12 cutoffs, MAE 1.41 | 2030: 439.2 80% 438.8 to 441.9 ppm · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
WLD · annual
Copper mine production
Modeled
No backtest has run for this target yet. Until one does, any forecast would use the last-value baseline; none is shown.
Monthly targets
horizons 1, 3, 6 and 12 months beyond the last observed month
USA · monthly
US industrial production index
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (ridge) beats last_value by 0.0 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 47 cutoffs, MAE 0.4353 | 2026-09: 103.1 80% 102.6 to 103.9 index 2017=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 realised 104: outside the interval |
| 3 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (ridge) beats last_value by 0.1 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 45 cutoffs, MAE 0.6553 | 2026-11: 103.1 80% 102.4 to 104.1 index 2017=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 6 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (ridge) beats last_value by -14.4 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 42 cutoffs, MAE 0.6828 | 2027-02: 103.1 80% 102.3 to 104.7 index 2017=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 12 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (seasonal_naive) beats last_value by 0.0 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 36 cutoffs, MAE 0.9564 | 2027-08: 103.1 80% 102 to 104.8 index 2017=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
USA · monthly
US electricity net generation
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | Seasonal naive champion seasonal_naive beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 65.0 percent over 47 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 65.0% over 47 cutoffs, MAE 10,851 | 2026-06: 393,285 80% 389,395 to 415,611 million kilowatthours · cutoff 2026-10-01 realised 399,671: inside the interval |
| 3 months | Seasonal naive champion seasonal_naive beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 79.2 percent over 45 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 79.2% over 45 cutoffs, MAE 10,931 | 2026-08: 420,242 80% 416,085 to 444,099 million kilowatthours · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 6 months | Seasonal naive champion seasonal_naive beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 70.6 percent over 42 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 70.6% over 42 cutoffs, MAE 11,292 | 2026-11: 334,986 80% 331,672 to 354,003 million kilowatthours · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 12 months | Drift champion drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 13.6 percent over 36 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 13.6% over 36 cutoffs, MAE 9,312 | 2027-05: 360,015 80% 350,484 to 374,292 million kilowatthours · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
USA · monthly
US housing starts
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) champion holt beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 16.2 percent over 47 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 16.2% over 47 cutoffs, MAE 78.47 | 2026-09: 1,286 80% 1,185 to 1,423 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 3 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (holt) beats last_value by 4.1 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 45 cutoffs, MAE 95.91 | 2026-11: 1,275 80% 1,127 to 1,402 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 6 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (holt) beats last_value by 1.4 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 42 cutoffs, MAE 91.12 | 2027-02: 1,275 80% 1,143 to 1,390 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 12 months | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (drift) beats last_value by 0.1 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 36 cutoffs, MAE 87 | 2027-08: 1,275 80% 1,158 to 1,387 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
WLD · monthly
Copper price
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | Last value baseline is champion Baseline is champion: the best challenger (drift) beats last_value by 0.4 percent, below the 5 percent margin. | 0.0% over 47 cutoffs, MAE 317.9 | 2026-08: 13,543 80% 12,977 to 14,529 US dollars per metric ton · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 3 months | Drift champion drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 7.0 percent over 45 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 7.0% over 45 cutoffs, MAE 566.1 | 2026-10: 13,725 80% 13,040 to 15,680 US dollars per metric ton · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 6 months | Drift champion drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 7.9 percent over 42 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 7.9% over 42 cutoffs, MAE 895.6 | 2027-01: 13,909 80% 12,702 to 16,899 US dollars per metric ton · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
| 12 months | Drift champion drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 16.5 percent over 36 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 16.5% over 36 cutoffs, MAE 1,137 | 2027-07: 14,285 80% 13,324 to 18,946 US dollars per metric ton · cutoff 2026-09-07 |
USA · monthly
US consumer price index, all items
Modeled
| Horizon | Champion | Skill vs last value | Latest forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 month | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 48.3 percent over 46 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 48.3% over 46 cutoffs, MAE 0.4638 | 2026-09: 334.8 80% 334.3 to 335.5 index 1982-1984=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 realised 336.3: outside the interval |
| 3 months | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 61.6 percent over 44 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 61.6% over 44 cutoffs, MAE 0.9221 | 2026-11: 336.3 80% 334.8 to 337.8 index 1982-1984=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 6 months | Drift champion drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 78.5 percent over 41 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 78.5% over 41 cutoffs, MAE 1.03 | 2027-02: 339.9 80% 337.6 to 340.7 index 1982-1984=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |
| 12 months | Ridge regression on lags and drivers champion ridge beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 81.8 percent over 36 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent). | 81.8% over 36 cutoffs, MAE 1.7 | 2027-08: 342.3 80% 341.5 to 345.9 index 1982-1984=100 · cutoff 2026-10-01 |