US electricity net generation · United States · 1 month ahead

2026-06: the model assigns an 80 percent probability to 389,395 to 415,611 million kilowatthours

Point estimate 393,285 million kilowatthours from Seasonal naive, against 354,691 million kilowatthours observed in 2026-05. seasonal_naive beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 65.0 percent over 47 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent).

ModeledMetric page

Distribution over the history

Fan chart

Solid: observed (million kilowatthours). Dashed and shaded: model point estimates and 80 percent intervals from empirical residual quantiles. Filled dot: the record on this page. Green or red dot: the realised value, inside or outside its interval.

Quantiles: p5 383,842 · p10 389,395 · p25 394,581 · p50 403,684 · p75 408,740 · p90 415,611 · p95 421,054
Source: empirical quantiles of 36 in-window 1-step residuals, in log space; no normality assumed

The record

Immutable fields

Key: us-electricity-net-generation:USA:1
Id: dd4c6eed-73dd-48a3-9229-4cc68989d347
Created: 2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
Data cutoff: 2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
Origin: 2026-05 = 354,691 (obs 245396)
Target period: 2026-06 (31 days)
Point: 393,285 million kilowatthours
Interval: 389,395 to 415,611 at 80 percent
Model: seasonal_naive models_v1.targets_v1
Baseline: last_value
Snapshot: 23bee4a8160719eb7a22de816e9bd64b9e867a19d27315a6e3b1c5db98c8bc49
Data mode: ingested_at
Status: active

Drivers

Statistical association, not causal

Seasonal naive uses only the target's own history; there are no driver contributions.

Outcome

Not yet realised

The observation for 2026-06 has not been ingested. The weekly forecast.evaluate job attaches it when it arrives; the record above does not change.

Scenario assumptions

What the forecast takes for granted

No structural break in us-electricity-net-generation between the data cutoff and the target period.
The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
The seasonal pattern of the last year repeats.

Falsifiers

What would show this forecast wrong

If the first published value of us-electricity-net-generation (USA) for 2026-06 is below 389,395 million kilowatthours or above 415,611 million kilowatthours, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 389,395 million kilowatthours and a 10 percent probability to a value above 415,611 million kilowatthours; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
The point forecast is above the last observed value (354,691 million kilowatthours); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.

Competing models

Scorecard for this target and horizon

Model	Status	Cutoffs	MAE	RMSE	Direction	80% coverage	Skill vs last value
Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1	champion	47	10,851	13,498	96%	87%	65.0%
Drift models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	31,090	36,296	47%	72%	-0.3%
Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	32,186	37,624	26%	74%	-3.8%
Last value models_v1.targets_v1	baseline	47	31,005	36,231	0%	72%	0.0%
Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	34,929	42,093	57%	77%	-12.7%
Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1	challenger	47	28,299	33,982	64%	72%	8.7%

Model card

Seasonal naive

Purpose. Point and 80 percent interval forecasts of us-electricity-net-generation (USA) 1, 3, 6, 12 months ahead. Owner: Forecast Lab (HV 3.0).

Method

The forecast is the value observed in the same month one season (12 periods) earlier. The series is modelled in natural logarithms and transformed back, so intervals are asymmetric in level terms.

Uncertainty

Intervals are empirical: the model is refitted at earlier origins inside the training window, the realised errors at the same horizon are collected, and the interval is the 10th to 90th percentile of those errors around the point forecast. No normality is assumed.

Training and evaluation

Training window: 641 periods, 1973-01-01 to 2026-05-01. Evaluation: rolling-origin backtest over 47 cutoffs using pseudo real-time data (the earliest ingested value per period; no vintage archive exists for this series, so revisions between the cutoff and today are not reproduced).

Known limitations

Structural breaks after the cutoff are not modelled.
Driver contributions are statistical associations, not causal effects.
Promotion to champion requires beating the last-value baseline on out-of-sample MAE by at least 5 percent over the minimum number of cutoffs; otherwise the baseline stays champion.
Retraining: every scheduled forecast.run refits on the data then available; backtests re-run from /admin/forecasts.

Version chain

Supersedes

This is the first record for its key.