HUMANITYVECTOR
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The state of humanity

THE STATE
OF HUMANITY

Are we becoming more capable?

Humanity Vector tracks the physical, scientific, economic and technological systems that determine what civilization can accomplish: energy, materials, health, food and industry through to computation, resilience and expansion beyond Earth. Every number shows its source, period, unit, history, methodology and freshness.

Explore the VectorBrowse the metrics
Metrics listed
200
Observations stored
420,644
Sources
19
Last successful ingestion

Insights

What Matters Right Now

top 5 of the published feed, ranked by relevanceAll insights

Newly important data, ranked by a transparent score over stored observations. Each card states what changed in one sentence, shows every component of its score, and links to the evidence. The score and the sentence are derived; the numbers they rest on are observed and cited by id on the insight page.

  1. #1US consumer price index, all items· United States

    US consumer price index, all items (United States) rose 0.65% in 2026-09-01, an unusually large monthly move

    DerivedCandidate

    US consumer price index, all items for United States was 336.3 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01, up 2.17 index 1982-1984=100 (+0.65%) from 334.13 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 99th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1947-01-01.

    Why it ranks here

    Statistical surprise1.00 × 0.18 = 0.179
    Acceleration0.88 × 0.12 = 0.105
    Breadth0.70 × 0.16 = 0.111
    Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
    Historical rarity0.32 × 0.08 = 0.025
    Relevance0.422
    40 points, 2023-05-01 to 2026-09-01

    336.3 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01+0.65%

    Confidence
    69%
    As of
    2026-09-01
    Updated

  2. #2US total public debt outstanding· United States

    US total public debt outstanding (United States) rose 0.15% in 2026-10-15, an unusually large daily move

    DerivedCandidate

    US total public debt outstanding for United States was 40,388,317,675,072 US dollars in 2026-10-15, up 59,087,847,531 US dollars (+0.15%) from 40,329,229,827,541 in 2026-10-14; that change ranks in the 97th percentile of daily changes recorded since 1993-04-01.

    Why it ranks here

    Statistical surprise0.99 × 0.18 = 0.178
    Acceleration0.83 × 0.12 = 0.099
    Breadth0.67 × 0.16 = 0.107
    Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
    Historical rarity0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024
    Relevance0.408
    40 points, 2026-08-19 to 2026-10-15

    40.39T US dollars in 2026-10-15+0.15%

    Confidence
    68%
    As of
    2026-10-15
    Updated

  3. #3US generation capacity additions, battery storage· United States

    US generation capacity additions, battery storage (United States) fell 32.89% in 2026-08-01, an unusually large monthly move

    DerivedCandidate

    US generation capacity additions, battery storage for United States was 743.4 MW in 2026-08-01, down 364.3 MW (-32.89%) from 1,107.7 in 2026-07-01; that change ranks in the 98th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1891-01-01.

    Why it ranks here

    Statistical surprise0.99 × 0.18 = 0.179
    Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120
    Breadth0.56 × 0.16 = 0.089
    Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
    Historical rarity0.00 × 0.08 = 0.000
    Relevance0.388
    40 points, 2023-05-01 to 2026-08-01

    743.4 MW in 2026-08-01-32.89%

    Confidence
    64%
    As of
    2026-08-01
    Updated

  4. #4US consumer price index, energy· United States

    US consumer price index, energy (United States) rose 5.20% in 2026-09-01, an unusually large monthly move

    DerivedCandidate

    US consumer price index, energy for United States was 337.83 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01, up 16.69 index 1982-1984=100 (+5.20%) from 321.15 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 99th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1957-01-01.

    Why it ranks here

    Statistical surprise1.00 × 0.18 = 0.179
    Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120
    Breadth0.44 × 0.16 = 0.071
    Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
    Historical rarity0.01 × 0.08 = 0.001
    Relevance0.371
    40 points, 2023-05-01 to 2026-09-01

    337.83 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01+5.20%

    Confidence
    61%
    As of
    2026-09-01
    Updated

  5. #5US Department of Defense contract obligations· United States

    US Department of Defense contract obligations (United States) fell 24.02% in 2025-10-01, the largest annual change in the recorded series

    DerivedCandidate

    US Department of Defense contract obligations for United States was 373,650,385,491 US dollars in 2025-10-01, down 118,128,688,748 US dollars (-24.02%) from 491,779,074,239 in 2024-10-01; that change ranks in the 100th percentile of annual changes recorded since 2007-10-01.

    Why it ranks here

    Statistical surprise0.98 × 0.18 = 0.176
    Acceleration0.80 × 0.12 = 0.096
    Breadth0.30 × 0.16 = 0.049
    Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
    Historical rarity0.59 × 0.08 = 0.048
    Relevance0.368
    19 points, 2007-10-01 to 2025-10-01

    373.65B US dollars in 2025-10-01-24.02%

    Confidence
    45%
    As of
    2025-10-01
    Updated

What are we measuring?

Money is not the underlying resource.

Traditional economic statistics describe important parts of civilization, but money is a claim on real resources, not the resource itself.

Humanity ultimately depends on energy, materials, knowledge, machines, infrastructure, ecosystems, logistics, health, computation and time.

Humanity Vector measures those systems directly, and labels every number as observed, derived, modeled or recommended so the reader can tell a measurement from an estimate and an estimate from an opinion.

  • Observed
  • Derived
  • Modeled
  • Recommended

Civilization vector

Ten dimensions, no single score

7 of 10 dimensions have a headline metric ingested

Each card shows the designated headline metric for the dimension in its default geography (named on the card; world unless the series is national), with its one-year change and ten-year compound annual growth rate as computed from stored observations. Dimensions without an ingested headline say so. No aggregate vector or arrows are published until formulas are implemented and versioned; see the Vector page for component coverage.

05 vector dimension

Compute

No headline metric ingested yet.

No headline metric has been designated for this dimension. None of its 5 candidate components are ingested. No direction is shown until real observations exist.

06 vector dimension

Abundance

No headline metric ingested yet.

No headline metric has been designated for this dimension. 3 of 7 candidate components are live. No direction is shown until real observations exist.

09 vector dimension

Resilience

No headline metric ingested yet.

No headline metric has been designated for this dimension. 1 of 7 candidate components are live. No direction is shown until real observations exist.

One-year movement, default geography

Fastest improving and worsening

Observed and derived metrics only; contextual metrics are excluded because they have no better or worse reading

Fastest improving

  1. 1
    Orbital launch attempts

    Space Expansion · 2024 to 2025

    improving+24.62%Observed
  2. 2
    Successful orbital launches

    Space Expansion · 2024 to 2025

    improving+24.51%Observed
  3. 3
    US electricity net generation

    Energy · 2026-05-01 to 2026-06-01

    improving+12.68%Observed
  4. 4
    Global surface temperature anomaly (NOAA NCEI)

    Environment & Regeneration · 2024 to 2025

    improving-10.40%Observed
  5. 5
    Global surface temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP)

    Environment & Regeneration · 2024 to 2025

    improving-7.81%Observed

Fastest worsening

  1. 1
    Labor hours per 100 gallons of gasoline

    Economy & Capital · 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-01

    worsening+7.16%Derived
  2. 2
    Cereal yield

    Food & Water · 2023 to 2024

    worsening-6.49%Observed
  3. 3
    US housing starts

    Infrastructure & Logistics · 2026-07-01 to 2026-08-01

    worsening-2.60%Observed
  4. 4
    US unemployment rate

    Economy & Capital · 2026-08-01 to 2026-09-01

    worsening+2.44%Observed
  5. 5
    Renewable freshwater resources per person

    Food & Water · 2021 to 2022

    worsening-0.69%Observed

Ranked by the signed one-year relative change read through each metric’s direction (higher-better or lower-better). One-year change compares the latest observation with the one exactly one period earlier. Method on the Methods page.

Ingestion log

Latest source updates

All sources
SourceStartedStatusRows seenRows writtenParserNote
OECDfailed00oecd-sdmx-csv/1.0.0oecd-industrial-production: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_INDSERV,/.M.PRVM.IX.BTE.Y._Z._Z.N?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-labour-productivity: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,/.A.GDPHRS._T.USD_PPP_H.V.N._Z.PPP?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-rd-expenditure: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.STP,DSD_MSTI@DF_MSTI,/.A.G.PT_B1GQ._Z._Z?format=csvfilewithlabels
Humanity Vectorsuccess56920humanity-vector-derived-verify/1.0.0
Humanity Vectorsuccess558410humanity-vector-derived/2.0.0
OECDfailed00oecd-sdmx-csv/1.0.0oecd-industrial-production: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_INDSERV,/.M.PRVM.IX.BTE.Y._Z._Z.N?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-labour-productivity: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,/.A.GDPHRS._T.USD_PPP_H.V.N._Z.PPP?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-rd-expenditure: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.STP,DSD_MSTI@DF_MSTI,/.A.G.PT_B1GQ._Z._Z?format=csvfilewithlabels
World Banksuccess26334064world-bank-v2/1.0.0
U.S. Governmentsuccess9519usaspending-v2/1.0.0
The Space Devssuccess400thespacedevs-ll2/1.0.0
OECDfailed00oecd-sdmx-csv/1.0.0oecd-industrial-production: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_INDSERV,/.M.PRVM.IX.BTE.Y._Z._Z.N?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-labour-productivity: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB,/.A.GDPHRS._T.USD_PPP_H.V.N._Z.PPP?format=csvfilewithlabels | oecd-rd-expenditure: HTTP 500 from https://sdmx.oecd.org/public/rest/data/OECD.STI.STP,DSD_MSTI@DF_MSTI,/.A.G.PT_B1GQ._Z._Z?format=csvfilewithlabels
NOAAsuccess16840noaa-gml-ncei/1.0.0
NASAsuccess1470nasa-gistemp/1.0.0

Find the constraint

Progress is often limited by a bottleneck.

When demand for something useful outruns supply, the important question is not only how to reduce demand. It is also:

What is preventing us from making more?

Humanity Vector connects energy, materials, manufacturing, labor, infrastructure, logistics and technology to identify the constraints that limit expansion. Six bottleneck records now exist (copper, transmission and interconnection, transformers, advanced semiconductors, battery materials, the skilled electrical workforce), each with a separate pressure and response signal and a status from documented, versioned thresholds. A record without enough data says so instead of guessing.

View Bottlenecks

From observation to action

Three layers, in order

  1. 1live

    Observe

    What is happening?

    Collect authoritative time series. Show current state, history, rate of change, source, coverage and freshness.

  2. 2schema only

    Diagnose

    What is limiting progress?

    Map dependencies between energy, materials, infrastructure, labor, manufacturing, compute, food and logistics. Detect bottlenecks and concentration.

  3. 3not started

    Optimize

    What could remove the constraint?

    Compare interventions on capacity, lead time, cost and uncertainty. Always separate observed data from modeled estimates and recommendations.

Beyond Earth

A civilization with one survivable world has one planetary point of failure.

Humanity Vector tracks the long transition from exploration to permanent off-Earth capability, and eventually to independently survivable human settlements beyond Earth.

Track Space Expansion

Independently survivable human worlds

Derived

1

worlds · assessed 2026 · methodology v1.0

A count against published criteria (energy, food, water, air, manufacturing, medicine with no resupply from Earth), not a measurement from an instrument. Criteria and the update rule are on the metric page; how derived values work is on the Methods page.

Ingestedfresh

Auditable by design

Every major metric exposes

Full methods

  • Source

    organization, dataset and series ID, with a link

  • Period

    the observation date the value applies to

  • Units

    as published, never silently converted

  • History

    the full stored series, charted

  • Methodology

    definition, formula and version

  • Freshness

    last ingestion time and a stale flag

  • Revisions

    every earlier value the source has replaced

  • Confidence

    quality notes and the observed / derived / modeled / recommended kind

Visitors should be able to disagree with an interpretation without needing to distrust the data.