US residential construction spending · United States · as of 2026-09-01

US residential construction spending (United States) fell 5.38% in 2026-09-01, the largest monthly change in the recorded series

US residential construction spending for United States was 861,192 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01, down 48,996 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (-5.38%) from 910,188 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 100th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 2002-01-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page

What changed

US residential construction spending

861,192millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate-5.38%

Latest: 861,192 in 2026-09-01 obs 421092
Previous: 910,188 in 2026-08-01 obs 421091
Change: -48,996 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate
History: 297 observations, 2002-01-01 to 2026-09-01

How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z: -6.43
Change percentile: 100th of 295 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile: 81st of earlier values
Median change: 2,717 (scale 8,037.17, mad)
Second difference: -80,640 (z -13.37)
Slope divergence: -0.21
Rarity: largest move in the recorded series

Confidence and status

Record

Relevance: 0.391
Confidence: 63%
Status: published
Discovered: 2026-11-09 00:22 UTC
Expires: 2026-12-09 00:22 UTC
Model: relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation: passed
Causal level: candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived

Statistical surprise1.00 × 0.18 = 0.180

Acceleration0.63 × 0.12 = 0.075

Breadth0.50 × 0.16 = 0.080

Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000

Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14

Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10

Historical rarity0.70 × 0.08 = 0.056

Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04

Relevance0.391

Statistical surprise: the latest change of -48,996 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate is -6.4 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (295 earlier changes), at the 100th percentile of absolute changes. Component 1.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.180.
Acceleration: second-difference z -13.4; short-versus-long slope divergence -0.21. Component 0.63, weight 0.12, contribution 0.075.
Breadth: 2 of 4 related metrics (same category, Infrastructure & Logistics) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 2 moved the other way. Component 0.50, weight 0.16, contribution 0.080.
Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
Historical rarity: no larger move exists in the recorded series (window 20 years). Component 0.70, weight 0.08, contribution 0.056.
Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.391, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US residential construction spending, United States, is 861,192 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate for 2026-09-01 (obs 421092). The previous period, 2026-08-01, recorded 910,188 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (obs 421091). The change is -48,996 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate, or -5.38%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 295 earlier monthly changes since 2002-01-01, the median change is +2,717 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 8,037.17, giving a robust z-score of -6.4. The absolute change sits at the 100th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 81st percentile of earlier values. No earlier move in the recorded series was larger.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -80,640 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate, a robust z of -13.4 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -8,676 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate per period against -6,984.68 over the last 10, a divergence of -0.21 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled

Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run d04a1cf8-3a3a-4a57-ba32-75089124fdfd. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

The series records 861192 [observation:421092] following 910188 [observation:421091]. Related observations include building permits at 1398 [observation:420898] and housing starts at 1221 [observation:420656]. Nonresidential construction spending appears at 1324954 [observation:421086].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with variation around the longer series levels seen in prior observations such as 986455 [observation:182494].

Why now

The period marks the largest move in the recorded series after 295 intervals without a comparable shift.

What to watch

Subsequent values for residential construction spending [observation:421092], building permits [observation:420898] and housing starts [observation:420656].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

Metric	Latest	Change	Evidence
US building permitscategory	1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate (2026-09-01)	-5 (-0.36%)	obs 420898, obs 410506
US housing startscategory	1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate (2026-09-01)	-67 (-5.20%)	obs 420656, obs 420655

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

2 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

Population using the Internet: +1.17 percent of population (+1.25%) to 94.69 percent of population in 2024-01-01 (obs 67194, obs 67195)
US nonresidential construction spending: +7,768 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (+0.59%) to 1,324,954 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01 (obs 421086, obs 421085)

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

Population using the Internet moved against this insight.
US nonresidential construction spending moved against this insight.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

The next US residential construction spending observation (2026-10-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of +2,717 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
US building permits, currently 1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01 (obs 420898): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
US housing starts, currently 1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01 (obs 420656): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
Revisions: a revised 2026-09-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 421092) and trigger a rescore.
Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.

Evidence

Every number links here

Observed

Observation	Metric	Period	Value	Role	Series	Ingested
421092	US residential construction spendingUSA	2026-09-01	861,192 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	primary	TLRESCONS	2026-11-09 00:06 UTC
421091	US residential construction spendingUSA	2026-08-01	910,188 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	primary	TLRESCONS	2026-11-09 00:06 UTC
182494	US residential construction spendingUSA	2022-05-01	986,455 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	context	TLRESCONS	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
182338	US residential construction spendingUSA	2009-05-01	244,399 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	context	TLRESCONS	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
67194	Population using the InternetUSA	2024	94.69 percent of population	counter	IT.NET.USER.ZS	2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
67195	Population using the InternetUSA	2023	93.53 percent of population	counter	IT.NET.USER.ZS	2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
420898	US building permitsUSA	2026-09-01	1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate	supporting	PERMIT	2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
410506	US building permitsUSA	2026-08-01	1,403 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate	supporting	PERMIT	2026-09-28 00:04 UTC
420656	US housing startsUSA	2026-09-01	1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate	supporting	HOUST	2026-10-26 00:03 UTC
420655	US housing startsUSA	2026-08-01	1,288 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate	supporting	HOUST	2026-10-26 00:03 UTC
421086	US nonresidential construction spendingUSA	2026-09-01	1.32M millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	counter	TLNRESCONS	2026-11-09 00:06 UTC
421085	US nonresidential construction spendingUSA	2026-08-01	1.32M millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate	counter	TLNRESCONS	2026-11-09 00:06 UTC

Feature packet (full inputs to the score)

{
  "as_of": "2026-09-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.053831,
    "value": -48996,
    "observation_ids": [
      421092,
      421091
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 421092,
    "value": 861192,
    "period": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "df6371a1-ce58-42bf-a6d0-f597b6eb5736",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US residential construction spending",
    "slug": "us-residential-construction-spending",
    "unit": "millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "ba0f03f5-f2d0-46e2-bf23-ee478b7269d1",
    "category_name": "Infrastructure & Logistics",
    "category_slug": "infrastructure",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 182494,
      "value": 986455,
      "period": "2022-05-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 182338,
      "value": 244399,
      "period": "2009-05-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 48996,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": true,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": null,
    "largest_in_window": true,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 295
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.7,
    "breadth": 0.5,
    "surprise": 1,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.6281,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.5,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population using the Internet",
        "slug": "internet-use",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 1.168205,
        "latest": {
          "id": 67194,
          "value": 94.69380188,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 67195,
          "value": 93.52559662,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "12ca0a44-2438-4df3-b7ac-b2e7d00ce659",
        "change_pct": 0.012491,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US building permits",
        "slug": "us-building-permits",
        "unit": "thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
        "change": -5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420898,
          "value": 1398,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410506,
          "value": 1403,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "4fe3f7cc-f6ec-47fd-a36e-bb4860bbea97",
        "change_pct": -0.003564,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US housing starts",
        "slug": "us-housing-starts",
        "unit": "thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
        "change": -67,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420656,
          "value": 1221,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 420655,
          "value": 1288,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "43b9e9ea-1335-4e47-aca4-c437f9ea160f",
        "change_pct": -0.052019,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US nonresidential construction spending",
        "slug": "us-nonresidential-construction-spending",
        "unit": "millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate",
        "change": 7768,
        "latest": {
          "id": 421086,
          "value": 1324954,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 421085,
          "value": 1317186,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "54ca6fa6-8276-4aea-8a6d-9ecf75d4477d",
        "change_pct": 0.005897,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 2,
    "comparable": 4,
    "consistent": 2
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 297,
    "last_period": "2026-09-01",
    "change_count": 296,
    "first_period": "2002-01-01"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 421091,
    "value": 910188,
    "period": "2026-08-01"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 8037.1746,
    "robust_z": -6.4342,
    "mad_change": 5421,
    "change_count": 295,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 2717,
    "value_percentile": 0.8108,
    "abs_change_percentile": 1
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": -6984.684848,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": -8676,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -0.2104,
    "second_difference": -80640,
    "second_difference_z": -13.369,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      182537,
      182538,
      182539,
      182540,
      182541,
      182542,
      410932,
      421090,
      421091,
      421092
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      421090,
      421091,
      421092
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 182507,
      "value": 878256,
      "period": "2023-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182508,
      "value": 889817,
      "period": "2023-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182509,
      "value": 892106,
      "period": "2023-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182510,
      "value": 889101,
      "period": "2023-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182511,
      "value": 894030,
      "period": "2023-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182512,
      "value": 905341,
      "period": "2023-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182513,
      "value": 903437,
      "period": "2023-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182514,
      "value": 926473,
      "period": "2024-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182515,
      "value": 943046,
      "period": "2024-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182516,
      "value": 937578,
      "period": "2024-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182517,
      "value": 944236,
      "period": "2024-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182518,
      "value": 952483,
      "period": "2024-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182519,
      "value": 952343,
      "period": "2024-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182520,
      "value": 945064,
      "period": "2024-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182521,
      "value": 938507,
      "period": "2024-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182522,
      "value": 953937,
      "period": "2024-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182523,
      "value": 947851,
      "period": "2024-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182524,
      "value": 936369,
      "period": "2024-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182525,
      "value": 940389,
      "period": "2024-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182526,
      "value": 939308,
      "period": "2025-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182527,
      "value": 940371,
      "period": "2025-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182528,
      "value": 932974,
      "period": "2025-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182529,
      "value": 926001,
      "period": "2025-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182530,
      "value": 926417,
      "period": "2025-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182531,
      "value": 933267,
      "period": "2025-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182532,
      "value": 939959,
      "period": "2025-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182533,
      "value": 940035,
      "period": "2025-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182534,
      "value": 944242,
      "period": "2025-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182535,
      "value": 934809,
      "period": "2025-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182536,
      "value": 928964,
      "period": "2025-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182537,
      "value": 942431,
      "period": "2025-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182538,
      "value": 924558,
      "period": "2026-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182539,
      "value": 919746,
      "period": "2026-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182540,
      "value": 930247,
      "period": "2026-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182541,
      "value": 894242,
      "period": "2026-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 182542,
      "value": 887277,
      "period": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 410932,
      "value": 894328,
      "period": "2026-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 421090,
      "value": 878544,
      "period": "2026-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 421091,
      "value": 910188,
      "period": "2026-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 421092,
      "value": 861192,
      "period": "2026-09-01"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.