Copper price · World · 12 months ahead
2027-07: the model assigns an 80 percent probability to 13,324 to 18,946 US dollars per metric ton
Point estimate 14,285 US dollars per metric ton from Drift, against 13,543 US dollars per metric ton observed in 2026-07. drift beats last_value on out-of-sample MAE by 16.5 percent over 36 cutoffs (minimum 24, margin 5 percent).
Fan chart
- Quantiles
- p5 12,791 · p10 13,324 · p25 14,223 · p50 14,943 · p75 16,542 · p90 18,946 · p95 19,255
- Source
- empirical quantiles of 36 in-window 12-step residuals, in log space; no normality assumed
Immutable fields
- Key
- copper-price:WLD:12
- Id
- c720d2c3-1d0b-483f-b034-5ffb43e146b6
- Created
- 2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
- Data cutoff
- 2026-09-07 22:16 UTC
- Origin
- 2026-07 = 13,543 (obs 156369)
- Target period
- 2027-07 (365 days)
- Point
- 14,285 US dollars per metric ton
- Interval
- 13,324 to 18,946 at 80 percent
- Model
- drift models_v1.targets_v1
- Baseline
- last_value
- Snapshot
- 3add11d4fa9c827061bdba684e81b50c8084bc3e373d26509b037eb44e215bf9
- Data mode
- ingested_at
- Status
- active
Statistical association, not causal
Drift uses only the target's own history; there are no driver contributions.
Not yet realised
The observation for 2027-07 has not been ingested. The weekly forecast.evaluate job attaches it when it arrives; the record above does not change.
What the forecast takes for granted
- No structural break in copper-price between the data cutoff and the target period.
- The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- The average historical change per period continues.
What would show this forecast wrong
- If the first published value of copper-price (WLD) for 2027-07 is below 13,324 US dollars per metric ton or above 18,946 US dollars per metric ton, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 13,324 US dollars per metric ton and a 10 percent probability to a value above 18,946 US dollars per metric ton; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (13,543 US dollars per metric ton); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
Scorecard for this target and horizon
| Model | Status | Cutoffs | MAE | RMSE | Direction | 80% coverage | Skill vs last value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drift models_v1.targets_v1 | champion | 36 | 1,137 | 1,615 | 86% | 75% | 16.5% |
| Holt (exponential smoothing with additive trend) models_v1.targets_v1 | challenger | 36 | 2,202 | 2,824 | 42% | 83% | -61.6% |
| Last value models_v1.targets_v1 | baseline | 36 | 1,363 | 1,858 | 0% | 75% | 0.0% |
| Linear trend models_v1.targets_v1 | challenger | 36 | 2,273 | 2,657 | 53% | 61% | -66.8% |
| Ridge regression on lags and drivers models_v1.targets_v1 | challenger | 36 | 1,428 | 1,928 | 14% | 75% | -4.8% |
| Seasonal naive models_v1.targets_v1 | challenger | 36 | 1,363 | 1,858 | 0% | 75% | 0.0% |
Drift
Drift
Purpose. Point and 80 percent interval forecasts of copper-price (WLD) 1, 3, 6, 12 months ahead. Owner: Forecast Lab (HV 3.0).
Method
The forecast extends the mean first difference of the whole training window from the last value: last value plus horizon times the average change. The series is modelled in natural logarithms and transformed back, so intervals are asymmetric in level terms.
Uncertainty
Intervals are empirical: the model is refitted at earlier origins inside the training window, the realised errors at the same horizon are collected, and the interval is the 10th to 90th percentile of those errors around the point forecast. No normality is assumed.
Training and evaluation
Training window: 415 periods, 1992-01-01 to 2026-07-01. Evaluation: rolling-origin backtest over 36 cutoffs using pseudo real-time data (the earliest ingested value per period; no vintage archive exists for this series, so revisions between the cutoff and today are not reproduced).
Known limitations
- Structural breaks after the cutoff are not modelled.
- Driver contributions are statistical associations, not causal effects.
- Promotion to champion requires beating the last-value baseline on out-of-sample MAE by at least 5 percent over the minimum number of cutoffs; otherwise the baseline stays champion.
- Retraining: every scheduled forecast.run refits on the data then available; backtests re-run from /admin/forecasts.
Supersedes
This is the first record for its key.