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Corn futures: managed-money net position · United States · as of 2026-10-13

Corn futures: managed-money net position (United States) fell 25.29% in 2026-10-13, an unusually large annual move

Corn futures: managed-money net position for United States was 246,425 contracts in 2026-10-13, down 83,414 contracts (-25.29%) from 329,839 in 2026-10-06; that change ranks in the 97th percentile of annual changes recorded since 2006-06-13.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

Corn futures: managed-money net position

246,425contracts-25.29%
Latest
246,425 in 2026-10-13 obs 415613
Previous
329,839 in 2026-10-06 obs 411272
Change
-83,414 contracts
History
1062 observations, 2006-06-13 to 2026-10-13
40 points, 2026-01-13 to 2026-10-13
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
-2.95
Change percentile
97th of 1060 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
83rd of earlier values
Median change
-406 (scale 28,173.85, mad)
Second difference
-32,033 (z -0.98)
Slope divergence
-2.92
Rarity
last larger move 6 periods ago (2026-09-01)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.318
Confidence
65%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-10-19 00:21 UTC
Expires
2026-11-18 00:21 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.81 × 0.18 = 0.145
Acceleration0.54 × 0.12 = 0.064
Breadth0.57 × 0.16 = 0.091
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.21 × 0.08 = 0.017
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.318
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of -83,414 contracts is -2.9 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (1060 earlier changes), at the 97th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.81, weight 0.18, contribution 0.145.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -1.0; short-versus-long slope divergence -2.92. Component 0.54, weight 0.12, contribution 0.064.
  • Breadth: 4 of 7 related metrics (same category, Food & Water) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 3 moved the other way. Component 0.57, weight 0.16, contribution 0.091.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 6 periods ago, in 2026-09-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.21, weight 0.08, contribution 0.017.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.318, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for Corn futures: managed-money net position, United States, is 246,425 contracts for 2026-10-13 (obs 415613). The previous period, 2026-10-06, recorded 329,839 contracts (obs 411272). The change is -83,414 contracts, or -25.29%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1060 earlier annual changes since 2006-06-13, the median change is -406 contracts and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 28,173.85, giving a robust z-score of -2.9. The absolute change sits at the 97th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 83rd percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +83,555 contracts in 2026-09-01 (obs 268008, obs 268007), 6 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -32,033 contracts, a robust z of -1.0 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -67,397.5 contracts per period against +14,849.22 over the last 10, a divergence of -2.92 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 85a2f584-0c23-486e-a346-f506836e1688. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:415613] records the position at 246425 contracts on 2026-10-13. Observation [observation:411272] records 329839 contracts on 2026-10-06. Earlier observations include 401003 contracts on 2026-09-01 [observation:268008] and 414460 contracts on 2026-09-15 [observation:410471]. The data are consistent with an unusually large move relative to recent periods.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The move may reflect position adjustments without a shift in underlying supply or demand conditions.

Why now

The position update for 2026-10-13 became available and the change from the prior week exceeds moves seen in the preceding six periods.

What to watch

Subsequent weekly readings of corn futures managed-money net position [observation:415613] and wheat futures managed-money net position [observation:415617].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Cereal productioncategory454.99M tonnes (2024)-7.64M (-1.65%)obs 295621, obs 295620
Food production indexcategory104.12 index 2014-2016=100 (2024)-0.46 (-0.44%)obs 321401, obs 321400
Renewable freshwater resources per personcategory8,437.22 cubic metres per person per year (2022)-48.17 (-0.57%)obs 117807, obs 117808
Wheat futures (SRW): managed-money net positioncategory-32,555 contracts (2026-10-13)-3,725 (-12.92%)obs 415617, obs 411276

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

3 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Cereal yield: +83.5 kg per hectare (+1.00%) to 8,413.5 kg per hectare in 2024 (obs 12783, obs 12784)
  • Dietary energy supply per person: +10 kcal per person per day (+0.25%) to 3,947 kcal per person per day in 2023 (obs 299688, obs 299687)
  • Land equipped for irrigation: +0.0008 thousand hectares (0.00%) to 24,692.58 thousand hectares in 2024 (obs 331861, obs 331860)

4 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next Corn futures: managed-money net position observation (2027-10-13): a change no larger than the median annual change of -406 contracts, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Cereal production, currently 454,987,916 tonnes in 2024 (obs 295621): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Food production index, currently 104.12 index 2014-2016=100 in 2024 (obs 321401): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Renewable freshwater resources per person, currently 8,437.22 cubic metres per person per year in 2022 (obs 117807): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-10-13 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 415613) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
415613Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-13246,425 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0026022026-10-19 00:15 UTC
411272Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-06329,839 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0026022026-10-12 00:04 UTC
268008Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-01401,003 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0026022026-09-07 20:00 UTC
268007Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-08-25317,448 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0026022026-09-07 20:00 UTC
410471Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-15414,460 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0026022026-09-21 00:05 UTC
267896Corn futures: managed-money net positionUSA2024-07-09-356,415 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0026022026-09-07 20:00 UTC
284876Agricultural land areaUSA2024421,540.37 thousand hectarescontextRL:6610:51102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
284875Agricultural land areaUSA2023421,540.37 thousand hectarescontextRL:6610:51102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
295621Cereal productionUSA2024454.99M tonnessupportingQCL:1717:55102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
295620Cereal productionUSA2023462.63M tonnessupportingQCL:1717:55102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
12783Cereal yieldUSA20248,413.5 kg per hectarecounterAG.YLD.CREL.KG2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
12784Cereal yieldUSA20238,330 kg per hectarecounterAG.YLD.CREL.KG2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
299688Dietary energy supply per personUSA20233,947 kcal per person per daycounterFS:220001:61282026-09-07 20:00 UTC
299687Dietary energy supply per personUSA20223,937 kcal per person per daycounterFS:220001:61282026-09-07 20:00 UTC
321401Food production indexUSA2024104.12 index 2014-2016=100supportingQI:2054:4322026-09-07 20:00 UTC
321400Food production indexUSA2023104.58 index 2014-2016=100supportingQI:2054:4322026-09-07 20:00 UTC
331861Land equipped for irrigationUSA202424,692.58 thousand hectarescounterRL:6690:51102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
331860Land equipped for irrigationUSA202324,692.58 thousand hectarescounterRL:6690:51102026-09-07 20:00 UTC
309860Nitrogen fertilizer use in agricultureUSA202411.43M tonnes of nitrogencontextRFN:3102:51572026-09-07 20:00 UTC
309859Nitrogen fertilizer use in agricultureUSA202311.43M tonnes of nitrogencontextRFN:3102:51572026-09-07 20:00 UTC
117807Renewable freshwater resources per personUSA20228,437.22 cubic metres per person per yearsupportingER.H2O.INTR.PC2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
117808Renewable freshwater resources per personUSA20218,485.39 cubic metres per person per yearsupportingER.H2O.INTR.PC2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
415617Wheat futures (SRW): managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-13-32,555 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0016022026-10-19 00:15 UTC
411276Wheat futures (SRW): managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-06-28,830 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0016022026-10-12 00:05 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-10-13",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.252893,
    "value": -83414,
    "observation_ids": [
      415613,
      411272
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 415613,
    "value": 246425,
    "period": "2026-10-13"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "35aa640d-d229-4e42-918e-1e84b90ea66b",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "Corn futures: managed-money net position",
    "slug": "cot-corn-managed-money-net",
    "unit": "contracts",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "category_id": "3f4c04a6-ead7-4240-af58-85acd53c030f",
    "category_name": "Food & Water",
    "category_slug": "food-water",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 410471,
      "value": 414460,
      "period": "2026-09-15"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 267896,
      "value": -356415,
      "period": "2024-07-09"
    },
    "abs_change": 83414,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 83555,
      "period": "2026-09-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        268008,
        268007
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 6
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.21,
    "breadth": 0.5714,
    "surprise": 0.8057,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.5368,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.5714,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Agricultural land area",
        "slug": "agricultural-land-area",
        "unit": "thousand hectares",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 284876,
          "value": 421540.37,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 284875,
          "value": 421540.37,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "bea05e5b-8f91-4b65-b875-3700398735f3",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cereal production",
        "slug": "cereal-production",
        "unit": "tonnes",
        "change": -7643241.49,
        "latest": {
          "id": 295621,
          "value": 454987916.06,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 295620,
          "value": 462631157.55,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "1ee0ae22-ed34-4c30-b851-814b955d9262",
        "change_pct": -0.016521,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cereal yield",
        "slug": "cereal-yield",
        "unit": "kg per hectare",
        "change": 83.5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 12783,
          "value": 8413.5,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 12784,
          "value": 8330,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "7e539f59-dcfb-4a96-970b-97cc4464dfd2",
        "change_pct": 0.010024,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Dietary energy supply per person",
        "slug": "dietary-energy-supply",
        "unit": "kcal per person per day",
        "change": 10,
        "latest": {
          "id": 299688,
          "value": 3947,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 299687,
          "value": 3937,
          "period": "2022-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "3b159776-69f6-4d65-9b96-c4ddce505caa",
        "change_pct": 0.00254,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Food production index",
        "slug": "food-production-index",
        "unit": "index 2014-2016=100",
        "change": -0.46,
        "latest": {
          "id": 321401,
          "value": 104.12,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 321400,
          "value": 104.58,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "c31f6e73-edab-4512-b2fc-03d855f68cf2",
        "change_pct": -0.004399,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Land equipped for irrigation",
        "slug": "irrigated-land-area",
        "unit": "thousand hectares",
        "change": 0.0008,
        "latest": {
          "id": 331861,
          "value": 24692.58,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 331860,
          "value": 24692.5792,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "86af4fd9-5c2c-4dc4-a1cc-b87673aeceaa",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Nitrogen fertilizer use in agriculture",
        "slug": "fertilizer-nitrogen-use",
        "unit": "tonnes of nitrogen",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 309860,
          "value": 11426152,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 309859,
          "value": 11426152,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "8d613970-62d2-4136-82f1-362e554d6cde",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Prevalence of undernourishment",
        "slug": "undernourishment-prevalence",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "lower_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "f5311948-6852-4230-9531-7f6102dbb2f3",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Prevalence of undernourishment, three-year average",
        "slug": "undernourishment-prevalence-3yr",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "lower_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "8096cf1f-3338-49e8-a29d-67be6b1b1842",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Renewable freshwater resources per person",
        "slug": "renewable-freshwater-per-person",
        "unit": "cubic metres per person per year",
        "change": -48.17261,
        "latest": {
          "id": 117807,
          "value": 8437.21911365822,
          "period": "2022-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 117808,
          "value": 8485.39172365244,
          "period": "2021-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "09fd6f48-b9cd-42be-bec1-5b6f7be06fb4",
        "change_pct": -0.005677,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Wheat futures (SRW): managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-wheat-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -3725,
        "latest": {
          "id": 415617,
          "value": -32555,
          "period": "2026-10-13"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 411276,
          "value": -28830,
          "period": "2026-10-06"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "b7c2ff55-99d7-41fb-b148-4119477e33b8",
        "change_pct": -0.129206,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 3,
    "comparable": 7,
    "consistent": 4
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 1062,
    "last_period": "2026-10-13",
    "change_count": 1061,
    "first_period": "2006-06-13"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 411272,
    "value": 329839,
    "period": "2026-10-06"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 28173.8478,
    "robust_z": -2.9463,
    "mad_change": 19003,
    "change_count": 1060,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": -406,
    "value_percentile": 0.8294,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.967
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 14849.224242,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": -67397.5,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -2.9193,
    "second_difference": -32033,
    "second_difference_z": -0.9836,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      268005,
      268006,
      268007,
      268008,
      409187,
      410471,
      410565,
      411179,
      411272,
      415613
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      411179,
      411272,
      415613
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 267975,
      "value": -90658,
      "period": "2026-01-13"
    },
    {
      "id": 267976,
      "value": -95867,
      "period": "2026-01-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 267977,
      "value": -81596,
      "period": "2026-01-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 267978,
      "value": -80613,
      "period": "2026-02-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 267979,
      "value": -57493,
      "period": "2026-02-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 267980,
      "value": -42313,
      "period": "2026-02-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 267981,
      "value": -13234,
      "period": "2026-02-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 267982,
      "value": 52243,
      "period": "2026-03-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 267983,
      "value": 198804,
      "period": "2026-03-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 267984,
      "value": 230888,
      "period": "2026-03-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 267985,
      "value": 279630,
      "period": "2026-03-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 267986,
      "value": 257952,
      "period": "2026-03-31"
    },
    {
      "id": 267987,
      "value": 210976,
      "period": "2026-04-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 267988,
      "value": 152618,
      "period": "2026-04-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 267989,
      "value": 182213,
      "period": "2026-04-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 267990,
      "value": 265572,
      "period": "2026-04-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 267991,
      "value": 344641,
      "period": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "id": 267992,
      "value": 295620,
      "period": "2026-05-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 267993,
      "value": 293342,
      "period": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": 267994,
      "value": 211337,
      "period": "2026-05-26"
    },
    {
      "id": 267995,
      "value": 120136,
      "period": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 267996,
      "value": -1306,
      "period": "2026-06-09"
    },
    {
      "id": 267997,
      "value": -49487,
      "period": "2026-06-16"
    },
    {
      "id": 267998,
      "value": -74819,
      "period": "2026-06-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 267999,
      "value": -66996,
      "period": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 268000,
      "value": -14999,
      "period": "2026-07-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 268001,
      "value": 11361,
      "period": "2026-07-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 268002,
      "value": 56713,
      "period": "2026-07-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 268003,
      "value": 126776,
      "period": "2026-07-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 268004,
      "value": 144821,
      "period": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "id": 268005,
      "value": 125875,
      "period": "2026-08-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 268006,
      "value": 181692,
      "period": "2026-08-18"
    },
    {
      "id": 268007,
      "value": 317448,
      "period": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 268008,
      "value": 401003,
      "period": "2026-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 409187,
      "value": 414459,
      "period": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "id": 410471,
      "value": 414460,
      "period": "2026-09-15"
    },
    {
      "id": 410565,
      "value": 404097,
      "period": "2026-09-22"
    },
    {
      "id": 411179,
      "value": 381220,
      "period": "2026-09-29"
    },
    {
      "id": 411272,
      "value": 329839,
      "period": "2026-10-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 415613,
      "value": 246425,
      "period": "2026-10-13"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

24 observations, 12 metrics, relevance score row 695 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).