Objective, 2x by 2040, World
Double global copper mine production by 2040
What would have to happen for world copper mine production to double by 2040?
Current level
23,000thousand metric tonsObserved
2025
Target level in 2040
46,000thousand metric tonsDerived
2040
Current level times 2.
Required annual addition
1,533.33thousand metric tons per yearDerived
2025 to 2040
(target minus current) divided by 15 years. A straight line, not a plan.
Recent pace, trailing 1-year average change
0thousand metric tons per yearDerived
2024 to 2025
(2025 level minus 2024 level) divided by 1. Only 1 year of history is stored, not the 5 the method asks for.
Forecast pace, Forecast Lab 5-year horizon
unavailableModeled
No active forecast stored for copper-mine-production:WLD:5: the Forecast Lab has not written one (too little history for a backtest, or the monthly run has not reached it).
Required pace minus recent pace
1,533.33thousand metric tons per yearDerived
Positive means the objective needs a faster pace than the trailing five years delivered.
Required pace minus forecast pace
unavailableModeled
No active forecast stored for copper-mine-production:WLD:5: the Forecast Lab has not written one (too little history for a backtest, or the monthly run has not reached it).
Target metric Copper mine production, entity Refined copper, base year 2025, 15 years to go, forecast copper-mine-production 5-year.
Same engine, same stored rows, no AI
Explore a different target
Backward walk over requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges, depth 4, 0 constraints
Dependency tree
The graph stores no upstream dependency edge from Refined copper. Nothing is invented to fill the gap.
Arithmetic on stored values; ranges follow the inputs
Required additions
| Quantity | Value | Class | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required annual addition (target minus current) divided by 15 years. A straight line, not a plan. | 1,533.33 thousand metric tons per year | Derived | obs:263646 |
Capacity pipeline and corporate pulses that map to the walk
Current pipeline and responses
Heavy Industry Pulse-0.165fractionDerived2026-08-02
4 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
Only where a coefficient and a sourced unit cost both exist
Capital
Development capital per year of new capacity
34.28billion USD (2024 dollars) per yearModeled
Required annual addition (thousand metric tons) times 22,359 USD per tonne of annual capacity. S&P publishes a weighted average, not a range; the project spread is wide and the average has risen with ore grades falling. Unit cost 22,359 USD per tonne of annual capacity, S&P Global Market Intelligence.
Downstream systems that compete for the same inputs; the engine does not rank them
Tradeoffs
Refined copper depth 0
Also needed by Power transformer (requires input), Residential construction (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
What is unavailable, hypothesized or modeled
Uncertainty
- Forecast pace: No active forecast stored for copper-mine-production:WLD:5: the Forecast Lab has not written one (too little history for a backtest, or the monthly run has not reached it).
- The graph stores no upstream dependency edge from Refined copper, so the constraint walk is empty; only the tradeoffs (who else needs it) are listed.
Stated, versioned, and shown before the numbers are trusted
Assumptions
- Base year 2025: the required pace divides the whole gap evenly over 15 years.
- The constraint walk follows requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges to depth 4; an entity reached twice is listed once at its shortest depth. Anything the curated graph does not store is not listed.
- Lead times are order-to-delivery or discovery-to-production ranges from the cited documents; they do not include financing or permitting unless the source says so.
- Capital for copper uses one published capital intensity (S&P Global Market Intelligence); it covers mine development only, not smelting, refining or transport.
AI-written from the numbers above, grok-4.3, prompt 1.0.0, validated against the packet
Narrative
The objective asks for global copper mine production to reach 46000 thousand metric tons in 2040 from the observed level of 23000 thousand metric tons in 2025 [q:current] [q:target]. The required annual addition is 1533.3333333333333 thousand metric tons per year [q:required]. Recent pace is 0 thousand metric tons per year [q:recent]. Forecast pace is unavailable [q:forecast]. Required pace minus recent pace is 1533.3333333333333 thousand metric tons per year [q:gap_recent]. Required pace minus forecast pace is unavailable [q:gap_forecast].
No constraints stored. Refined copper is also needed by Power transformer, Residential construction.
Forecast pace is unavailable as no active forecast stored for copper-mine-production:WLD:5. Only 1 year of history is stored. Capital per year of new capacity is modeled at 34.2838 (range 34.2838 to 34.2838) billion USD (2024 dollars) per year [q:capital:0]. Heavy Industry Pulse is modeled at -0.16498253619224745 fraction from 4 companies [q:response:0].
ai run f98eb655-fdc6-4248-a1e8-9dea59eeab5d, 2026-10-19 00:24 UTC. The model restates computed values and cites packet ids; it adds no figure and makes no recommendation.