Objective, 1.3x by 2040, World
Raise global cereal yield 30 percent by 2040
What would have to happen for world cereal yield per hectare to rise 30 percent by 2040?
Current level
3,954.95kg per hectareObserved
2024
Target level in 2040
5,141.43kg per hectareDerived
2040
Current level times 1.3.
Required annual addition
74.16kg per hectare per yearDerived
2024 to 2040
(target minus current) divided by 16 years. A straight line, not a plan.
Recent pace, trailing 5-year average change
-33.72kg per hectare per yearDerived
2019 to 2024
(2024 level minus 2019 level) divided by 5.
Forecast pace, Forecast Lab 5-year horizon
11.45 to 81.83kg per hectare per yearModeled
mid 43.1
2030
ridge champion, data cutoff 2026-09-07; range is the forecast interval divided by 5 years.
Required pace minus recent pace
107.88kg per hectare per yearDerived
Positive means the objective needs a faster pace than the trailing five years delivered.
Required pace minus forecast pace
-7.68 to 62.71kg per hectare per yearModeled
mid 31.06
2030
Range follows the forecast interval.
Target metric Cereal yield, entity Crop production, base year 2024, 16 years to go, forecast cereal-yield 5-year.
Same engine, same stored rows, no AI
Explore a different target
Backward walk over requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges, depth 4, 6 constraints
Dependency tree
Objective on the left, what it needs to the right
- Candidate
- Hypothesized
- Mechanism supported
- Causally supported
- Established relation
depth 1 Synthetic fertilizerproduct
Mechanism supportedrequires inputstrength 0.7confidence 0.9relationshipwhy Synthetic fertilizer
Yields depend on nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium supply, and synthetic fertilizer provides most of it on intensively farmed land. Manure, legume rotation and residue return substitute in part, and the response varies by soil and crop, so this is an agronomic mechanism rather than a fixed coefficient.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- no pipeline or pulse maps to this entity
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 2 Ammoniaproduct
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.9confidence 0.98relationshipwhy Ammonia
Nitrogen fertilizers (urea, ammonium nitrate, UAN) are made from ammonia.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- no pipeline or pulse maps to this entity
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 3 Natural gasenergy source24 months
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.8confidence 0.95relationshipwhy Natural gas
Haber-Bosch synthesis takes hydrogen from steam reforming of natural gas in most plants; gas is both feedstock and fuel. Coal gasification and electrolytic hydrogen are the alternative routes and supply a minority of output.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- 24 months (Construction only. Turbine order backlogs and interconnection queues add time the assumption table does not count.) Lazard Recommended
Gas combined cycle: construction time 24 months.
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- no pipeline or pulse maps to this entity
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 2 Phosphate rockcommodity
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.8confidence 0.97relationshipwhy Phosphate rock
Phosphate fertilizers are made from mined phosphate rock; there is no synthetic route to phosphorus.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- no pipeline or pulse maps to this entity
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 2 Potashcommodity
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.8confidence 0.97relationshipwhy Potash
Potassium fertilizer is mined potash; production is concentrated in a few countries.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- no pipeline or pulse maps to this entity
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 2 Freight transportinfrastructure system
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.7confidence 0.9relationshipwhy Freight transport
Fertilizer is bulky and largely imported into consuming regions; rail, barge and ocean freight deliver it inside the planting window.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- Global Logistics Pulse: no value stored Derived
No pulse stored yet (corporate.recompute_pulses has not run, or no facts are stored).
- Also needed by
- Food system
Arithmetic on stored values; ranges follow the inputs
Required additions
| Quantity | Value | Class | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required annual addition (target minus current) divided by 16 years. A straight line, not a plan. | 74.16 kg per hectare per year | Derived | obs:2945 |
| Synthetic fertilizer needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:a4c53f46-bc89-4950-82ae-c70dd9fa6b5f |
| Ammonia needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:afe6438f-87d6-4816-a4f6-5d451614b0c7 |
| Phosphate rock needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:96006332-d4b0-491c-98d6-ca552bc8cb0d |
| Potash needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:9b0416d3-af69-4a27-8824-f112a041c7aa |
| Freight transport needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:2c8d1f57-188d-4870-85af-d7bb7833703c |
| Natural gas needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:c38a768c-91df-4bb1-988f-32428321d745 |
Capacity pipeline and corporate pulses that map to the walk
Current pipeline and responses
Global Logistics Pulseno valueDerived
No pulse stored yet (corporate.recompute_pulses has not run, or no facts are stored).
Only where a coefficient and a sourced unit cost both exist
Capital
Not estimated: no coefficient plus unit cost pair is stored for this objective.
Downstream systems that compete for the same inputs; the engine does not rank them
Tradeoffs
Crop production depth 0
Also needed by Food system (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
Freight transport depth 2
Also needed by Food system (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
What is unavailable, hypothesized or modeled
Uncertainty
- Forecast pace is a model output with an empirical interval; the champion model can change at the next monthly backtest.
- Synthetic fertilizer: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Ammonia: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Phosphate rock: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Potash: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Freight transport: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Natural gas: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Capital not estimated for Synthetic fertilizer, Ammonia, Phosphate rock, Potash, Freight transport, Natural gas: no coefficient plus unit cost pair is stored for them.
Stated, versioned, and shown before the numbers are trusted
Assumptions
- Base year 2024: the required pace divides the whole gap evenly over 16 years.
- The constraint walk follows requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges to depth 4; an entity reached twice is listed once at its shortest depth. Anything the curated graph does not store is not listed.
- Lead times are order-to-delivery or discovery-to-production ranges from the cited documents; they do not include financing or permitting unless the source says so.
AI-written from the numbers above, grok-4.3, prompt 1.0.0, validated against the packet
Narrative
The objective asks for global cereal yield per hectare to reach [q:target] by 2040 from [q:current] in 2024. The required annual addition is [q:required]. Recent pace was [q:recent]. Forecast pace is [q:forecast]. Gap to recent pace is [q:gap_recent]. Gap to forecast pace is [q:gap_forecast]. The data are consistent with the objective being behind pace.
Deepest lead time first: natural gas requires input with lead time 24 to 24 months [rel:c38a768c-91df-4bb1-988f-32428321d745]. Depth 2 inputs required: ammonia [rel:afe6438f-87d6-4816-a4f6-5d451614b0c7], phosphate rock [rel:96006332-d4b0-491c-98d6-ca552bc8cb0d], potash [rel:9b0416d3-af69-4a27-8824-f112a041c7aa], freight transport [rel:2c8d1f57-188d-4870-85af-d7bb7833703c]. Depth 1: synthetic fertilizer requires input [rel:a4c53f46-bc89-4950-82ae-c70dd9fa6b5f]. Crop production also needed by Food system. Freight transport also needed by Food system.
[q:response:0] is unavailable. [q:forecast] and [q:gap_forecast] are modeled with the given range. [q:required] is a straight-line derivation over 16 years. [q:recent] is a trailing 5-year average.
ai run 9fe13973-9171-416c-aae1-10b62ebeff76, 2026-09-07 22:37 UTC. The model restates computed values and cites packet ids; it adds no figure and makes no recommendation.