HUMANITYVECTOR
Menu

Copper futures: managed-money net position · United States · as of 2026-09-15

Copper futures: managed-money net position (United States) fell 20.75% in 2026-09-15, the largest annual change in 20 years

Copper futures: managed-money net position for United States was 65,106 contracts in 2026-09-15, down 17,048 contracts (-20.75%) from 82,154 in 2026-09-08; that change ranks in the 94th percentile of annual changes recorded since 2006-06-13.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

Copper futures: managed-money net position

65,106contracts-20.75%
Latest
65,106 in 2026-09-15 obs 410470
Previous
82,154 in 2026-09-08 obs 409186
Change
-17,048 contracts
History
1058 observations, 2006-06-13 to 2026-09-15
40 points, 2025-12-16 to 2026-09-15
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
-2.96
Change percentile
94th of 1056 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
91st of earlier values
Median change
75 (scale 5,788.81, mad)
Second difference
-26,320 (z -3.45)
Slope divergence
-0.84
Rarity
last larger move 58 periods ago (2025-08-05)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.344
Confidence
60%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-09-21 00:11 UTC
Expires
2026-10-21 00:11 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.80 × 0.18 = 0.144
Acceleration0.63 × 0.12 = 0.076
Breadth0.43 × 0.16 = 0.069
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.70 × 0.08 = 0.056
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.344
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of -17,048 contracts is -3.0 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (1056 earlier changes), at the 94th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.80, weight 0.18, contribution 0.144.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -3.4; short-versus-long slope divergence -0.84. Component 0.63, weight 0.12, contribution 0.076.
  • Breadth: 3 of 7 related metrics (same category, Materials) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 4 moved the other way. Component 0.43, weight 0.16, contribution 0.069.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 58 periods ago, in 2025-08-05 (window 20 years). Component 0.70, weight 0.08, contribution 0.056.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.344, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for Copper futures: managed-money net position, United States, is 65,106 contracts for 2026-09-15 (obs 410470). The previous period, 2026-09-08, recorded 82,154 contracts (obs 409186). The change is -17,048 contracts, or -20.75%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1056 earlier annual changes since 2006-06-13, the median change is +75 contracts and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 5,788.81, giving a robust z-score of -3.0. The absolute change sits at the 94th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 91st percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was -18,411 contracts in 2025-08-05 (obs 266896, obs 266895), 58 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -26,320 contracts, a robust z of -3.4 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -3,888 contracts per period against +965.41 over the last 10, a divergence of -0.84 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 9d09a22d-29fd-4138-bef3-fad06c56c361. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:410470] records 65106 contracts on 2026-09-15. Observation [observation:409186] records 82154 contracts on 2026-09-08. The data are consistent with a change of -17048 contracts.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal position adjustments by market participants.

Why now

The move registers after 58 periods without a larger change and shows a surprise_robust_z of -2.9579.

What to watch

Weekly updates to copper futures managed-money net position as in [observation:410470] and [observation:409186].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Cement productioncategory84,000 thousand metric tons (2025)-1,000 (-1.18%)obs 263553, obs 263538
Copper mine productioncategory1,000 thousand metric tons (2025)-50 (-4.76%)obs 263632, obs 263617
Gold futures: managed-money net positioncategory133,116 contracts (2026-09-15)-1,856 (-1.38%)obs 410473, obs 409189

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

4 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Cobalt mine production: +100 metric tons (+50.00%) to 300 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263586, obs 263573)
  • Nickel mine production: +2,510 metric tons (+33.51%) to 10,000 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263821, obs 263811)
  • Rare earth mine production: +5,500 metric tons (+12.09%) to 51,000 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263979, obs 263966)
  • US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employment: +3 thousands of persons (+0.53%) to 569.9 thousands of persons in 2026-08-01 (obs 176223, obs 176222)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next Copper futures: managed-money net position observation (2027-09-15): a change no larger than the median annual change of +75 contracts, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Cement production, currently 84,000 thousand metric tons in 2025 (obs 263553): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Copper mine production, currently 1,000 thousand metric tons in 2025 (obs 263632): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Gold futures: managed-money net position, currently 133,116 contracts in 2026-09-15 (obs 410473): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-09-15 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 410470) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
410470Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-1565,106 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-21 00:05 UTC
409186Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-0882,154 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-14 00:06 UTC
266896Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2025-08-0518,249 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266895Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2025-07-2936,660 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266483Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2017-09-05125,372 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266583Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2019-08-06-75,114 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
263553Cement productionUSA202584,000 thousand metric tonssupportingCEMENT/Cement production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263538Cement productionUSA202485,000 thousand metric tonssupportingCEMENT/Cement production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263586Cobalt mine productionUSA2025300 metric tonscounterCOBALT/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263573Cobalt mine productionUSA2024200 metric tonscounterCOBALT/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263632Copper mine productionUSA20251,000 thousand metric tonssupportingCOPPER/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263617Copper mine productionUSA20241,050 thousand metric tonssupportingCOPPER/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
410473Gold futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-15133,116 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0886912026-09-21 00:05 UTC
409189Gold futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-08134,972 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0886912026-09-14 00:06 UTC
263821Nickel mine productionUSA202510,000 metric tonscounterNICKEL/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263811Nickel mine productionUSA20247,490 metric tonscounterNICKEL/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263979Rare earth mine productionUSA202551,000 metric tonscounterRARE EARTHS/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263966Rare earth mine productionUSA202445,500 metric tonscounterRARE EARTHS/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
176223US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employmentUSA2026-08-01569.9 thousands of personscounterCES10210000012026-09-07 09:53 UTC
176222US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employmentUSA2026-07-01566.9 thousands of personscounterCES10210000012026-09-07 09:53 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-09-15",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.207513,
    "value": -17048,
    "observation_ids": [
      410470,
      409186
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 410470,
    "value": 65106,
    "period": "2026-09-15"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "20f2114e-181a-401e-9c09-5c281855686e",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "Copper futures: managed-money net position",
    "slug": "cot-copper-managed-money-net",
    "unit": "contracts",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "category_id": "b741b213-2827-42e8-8ff9-2175fac3aaf2",
    "category_name": "Materials",
    "category_slug": "materials",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 266483,
      "value": 125372,
      "period": "2017-09-05"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 266583,
      "value": -75114,
      "period": "2019-08-06"
    },
    "abs_change": 17048,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": -18411,
      "period": "2025-08-05",
      "observation_ids": [
        266896,
        266895
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": true,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 58
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.7,
    "breadth": 0.4286,
    "surprise": 0.7989,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.6293,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.4286,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cement production",
        "slug": "cement-production",
        "unit": "thousand metric tons",
        "change": -1000,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263553,
          "value": 84000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263538,
          "value": 85000,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "2d0e6d71-2d44-4067-9625-e1143f404daf",
        "change_pct": -0.011765,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cobalt mine production",
        "slug": "cobalt-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 100,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263586,
          "value": 300,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263573,
          "value": 200,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "63873711-90b6-44eb-8f3e-f21339ce8577",
        "change_pct": 0.5,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Copper mine production",
        "slug": "copper-mine-production",
        "unit": "thousand metric tons",
        "change": -50,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263632,
          "value": 1000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263617,
          "value": 1050,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "b551c248-63fe-4944-9289-b20e66fdedc4",
        "change_pct": -0.047619,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Copper price",
        "slug": "copper-price",
        "unit": "US dollars per metric ton",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "44700b15-74fc-47f2-81de-648c0793211c",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Gold futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-gold-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -1856,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410473,
          "value": 133116,
          "period": "2026-09-15"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 409189,
          "value": 134972,
          "period": "2026-09-08"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "b0c77db6-f3c4-42d3-b06f-1760211878e9",
        "change_pct": -0.013751,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Lithium mine production",
        "slug": "lithium-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "05ede675-4f6c-4ce1-85c3-b68f3ead729d",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural graphite mine production",
        "slug": "graphite-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "634b9991-c4e4-4985-9658-99dc958058d6",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Nickel mine production",
        "slug": "nickel-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 2510,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263821,
          "value": 10000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263811,
          "value": 7490,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "6345b16a-5918-4944-bfb9-ba1f7a242d60",
        "change_pct": 0.335113,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Rare earth mine production",
        "slug": "rare-earth-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 5500,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263979,
          "value": 51000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263966,
          "value": 45500,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "56bf3fb6-2bbe-4370-bc1b-7e01a58790cf",
        "change_pct": 0.120879,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employment",
        "slug": "us-mining-employment",
        "unit": "thousands of persons",
        "change": 3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 176223,
          "value": 569.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 176222,
          "value": 566.9,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "9102b052-197d-4c31-bcf0-7d01d7715ec0",
        "change_pct": 0.005292,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 4,
    "comparable": 7,
    "consistent": 3
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 1058,
    "last_period": "2026-09-15",
    "change_count": 1057,
    "first_period": "2006-06-13"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 409186,
    "value": 82154,
    "period": "2026-09-08"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 5788.8117,
    "robust_z": -2.9579,
    "mad_change": 3904.5,
    "change_count": 1056,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 75,
    "value_percentile": 0.913,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.9375
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 965.406061,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": -3888,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -0.8384,
    "second_difference": -26320,
    "second_difference_z": -3.4498,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      266945,
      266946,
      266947,
      266948,
      266949,
      266950,
      266951,
      266952,
      409186,
      410470
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      266952,
      409186,
      410470
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 266915,
      "value": 75134,
      "period": "2025-12-16"
    },
    {
      "id": 266916,
      "value": 75619,
      "period": "2025-12-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 266917,
      "value": 71019,
      "period": "2025-12-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 266918,
      "value": 68242,
      "period": "2026-01-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 266919,
      "value": 63391,
      "period": "2026-01-13"
    },
    {
      "id": 266920,
      "value": 62806,
      "period": "2026-01-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 266921,
      "value": 58018,
      "period": "2026-01-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 266922,
      "value": 55923,
      "period": "2026-02-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 266923,
      "value": 55564,
      "period": "2026-02-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 266924,
      "value": 53774,
      "period": "2026-02-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 266925,
      "value": 51027,
      "period": "2026-02-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 266926,
      "value": 48494,
      "period": "2026-03-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 266927,
      "value": 47676,
      "period": "2026-03-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 266928,
      "value": 46558,
      "period": "2026-03-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 266929,
      "value": 35284,
      "period": "2026-03-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 266930,
      "value": 39172,
      "period": "2026-03-31"
    },
    {
      "id": 266931,
      "value": 38393,
      "period": "2026-04-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 266932,
      "value": 52333,
      "period": "2026-04-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 266933,
      "value": 59585,
      "period": "2026-04-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 266934,
      "value": 60937,
      "period": "2026-04-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 266935,
      "value": 63473,
      "period": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "id": 266936,
      "value": 74488,
      "period": "2026-05-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 266937,
      "value": 74188,
      "period": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": 266938,
      "value": 70500,
      "period": "2026-05-26"
    },
    {
      "id": 266939,
      "value": 75747,
      "period": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 266940,
      "value": 69204,
      "period": "2026-06-09"
    },
    {
      "id": 266941,
      "value": 69008,
      "period": "2026-06-16"
    },
    {
      "id": 266942,
      "value": 66547,
      "period": "2026-06-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 266943,
      "value": 59703,
      "period": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 266944,
      "value": 58784,
      "period": "2026-07-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 266945,
      "value": 60185,
      "period": "2026-07-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 266946,
      "value": 71515,
      "period": "2026-07-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 266947,
      "value": 65008,
      "period": "2026-07-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 266948,
      "value": 75758,
      "period": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "id": 266949,
      "value": 79027,
      "period": "2026-08-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 266950,
      "value": 78648,
      "period": "2026-08-18"
    },
    {
      "id": 266951,
      "value": 76271,
      "period": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 266952,
      "value": 72882,
      "period": "2026-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 409186,
      "value": 82154,
      "period": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "id": 410470,
      "value": 65106,
      "period": "2026-09-15"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

20 observations, 11 metrics, relevance score row 203 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).