HUMANITYVECTOR
Menu

Copper futures: managed-money net position · United States · as of 2026-09-22

Copper futures: managed-money net position (United States) rose 26.75% in 2026-09-22, the largest annual change in 20 years

Copper futures: managed-money net position for United States was 82,522 contracts in 2026-09-22, up 17,416 contracts (+26.75%) from 65,106 in 2026-09-15; that change ranks in the 94th percentile of annual changes recorded since 2006-06-13.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

Copper futures: managed-money net position

82,522contracts+26.75%
Latest
82,522 in 2026-09-22 obs 410564
Previous
65,106 in 2026-09-15 obs 410470
Change
+17,416 contracts
History
1059 observations, 2006-06-13 to 2026-09-22
40 points, 2025-12-23 to 2026-09-22
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
2.99
Change percentile
94th of 1057 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
97th of earlier values
Median change
68 (scale 5,792.52, mad)
Second difference
34,464 (z 4.52)
Slope divergence
-0.08
Rarity
last larger move 59 periods ago (2025-08-05)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.366
Confidence
65%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-09-28 00:11 UTC
Expires
2026-10-28 00:11 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.81 × 0.18 = 0.145
Acceleration0.61 × 0.12 = 0.073
Breadth0.57 × 0.16 = 0.091
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.70 × 0.08 = 0.056
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.366
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of +17,416 contracts is 3.0 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (1057 earlier changes), at the 94th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.81, weight 0.18, contribution 0.145.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z 4.5; short-versus-long slope divergence -0.08. Component 0.61, weight 0.12, contribution 0.073.
  • Breadth: 4 of 7 related metrics (same category, Materials) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 3 moved the other way. Component 0.57, weight 0.16, contribution 0.091.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 59 periods ago, in 2025-08-05 (window 20 years). Component 0.70, weight 0.08, contribution 0.056.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.366, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for Copper futures: managed-money net position, United States, is 82,522 contracts for 2026-09-22 (obs 410564). The previous period, 2026-09-15, recorded 65,106 contracts (obs 410470). The change is +17,416 contracts, or +26.75%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1057 earlier annual changes since 2006-06-13, the median change is +68 contracts and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 5,792.52, giving a robust z-score of 3.0. The absolute change sits at the 94th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 97th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was -18,411 contracts in 2025-08-05 (obs 266896, obs 266895), 59 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +34,464 contracts, a robust z of 4.5 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +184 contracts per period against +672.22 over the last 10, a divergence of -0.08 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI enrichment was attempted and rejected (numbers without stored evidence: 18249, 36660); no AI prose is shown.

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Cobalt mine productioncategory300 metric tons (2025)+100 (+50.00%)obs 263586, obs 263573
Nickel mine productioncategory10,000 metric tons (2025)+2,510 (+33.51%)obs 263821, obs 263811
Rare earth mine productioncategory51,000 metric tons (2025)+5,500 (+12.09%)obs 263979, obs 263966
US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employmentcategory569.9 thousands of persons (2026-08-01)+3 (+0.53%)obs 176223, obs 176222

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

3 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Cement production: -1,000 thousand metric tons (-1.18%) to 84,000 thousand metric tons in 2025 (obs 263553, obs 263538)
  • Copper mine production: -50 thousand metric tons (-4.76%) to 1,000 thousand metric tons in 2025 (obs 263632, obs 263617)
  • Gold futures: managed-money net position: -5,727 contracts (-4.30%) to 127,389 contracts in 2026-09-22 (obs 410567, obs 410473)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next Copper futures: managed-money net position observation (2027-09-22): a change no larger than the median annual change of +68 contracts, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Cobalt mine production, currently 300 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263586): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Nickel mine production, currently 10,000 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263821): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Rare earth mine production, currently 51,000 metric tons in 2025 (obs 263979): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-09-22 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 410564) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
410564Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-2282,522 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-28 00:05 UTC
410470Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-1565,106 contractsprimary72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-21 00:05 UTC
266896Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2025-08-0518,249 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266895Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2025-07-2936,660 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266483Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2017-09-05125,372 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
266583Copper futures: managed-money net positionUSA2019-08-06-75,114 contractscontext72hh-3qpy:0856922026-09-07 20:00 UTC
263553Cement productionUSA202584,000 thousand metric tonscounterCEMENT/Cement production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263538Cement productionUSA202485,000 thousand metric tonscounterCEMENT/Cement production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263586Cobalt mine productionUSA2025300 metric tonssupportingCOBALT/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263573Cobalt mine productionUSA2024200 metric tonssupportingCOBALT/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263632Copper mine productionUSA20251,000 thousand metric tonscounterCOPPER/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263617Copper mine productionUSA20241,050 thousand metric tonscounterCOPPER/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
410567Gold futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-22127,389 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0886912026-09-28 00:05 UTC
410473Gold futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-15133,116 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0886912026-09-21 00:05 UTC
263821Nickel mine productionUSA202510,000 metric tonssupportingNICKEL/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263811Nickel mine productionUSA20247,490 metric tonssupportingNICKEL/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263979Rare earth mine productionUSA202551,000 metric tonssupportingRARE EARTHS/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
263966Rare earth mine productionUSA202445,500 metric tonssupportingRARE EARTHS/Mine production2026-09-07 19:57 UTC
176223US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employmentUSA2026-08-01569.9 thousands of personssupportingCES10210000012026-09-07 09:53 UTC
176222US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employmentUSA2026-07-01566.9 thousands of personssupportingCES10210000012026-09-07 09:53 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-09-22",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.267502,
    "value": 17416,
    "observation_ids": [
      410564,
      410470
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 410564,
    "value": 82522,
    "period": "2026-09-22"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "20f2114e-181a-401e-9c09-5c281855686e",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "Copper futures: managed-money net position",
    "slug": "cot-copper-managed-money-net",
    "unit": "contracts",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "category_id": "b741b213-2827-42e8-8ff9-2175fac3aaf2",
    "category_name": "Materials",
    "category_slug": "materials",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 266483,
      "value": 125372,
      "period": "2017-09-05"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 266583,
      "value": -75114,
      "period": "2019-08-06"
    },
    "abs_change": 17416,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": -18411,
      "period": "2025-08-05",
      "observation_ids": [
        266896,
        266895
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": true,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 59
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.7,
    "breadth": 0.5714,
    "surprise": 0.8057,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.6112,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.5714,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cement production",
        "slug": "cement-production",
        "unit": "thousand metric tons",
        "change": -1000,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263553,
          "value": 84000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263538,
          "value": 85000,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "2d0e6d71-2d44-4067-9625-e1143f404daf",
        "change_pct": -0.011765,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Cobalt mine production",
        "slug": "cobalt-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 100,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263586,
          "value": 300,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263573,
          "value": 200,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "63873711-90b6-44eb-8f3e-f21339ce8577",
        "change_pct": 0.5,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Copper mine production",
        "slug": "copper-mine-production",
        "unit": "thousand metric tons",
        "change": -50,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263632,
          "value": 1000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263617,
          "value": 1050,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "b551c248-63fe-4944-9289-b20e66fdedc4",
        "change_pct": -0.047619,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Copper price",
        "slug": "copper-price",
        "unit": "US dollars per metric ton",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "44700b15-74fc-47f2-81de-648c0793211c",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Gold futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-gold-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -5727,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410567,
          "value": 127389,
          "period": "2026-09-22"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410473,
          "value": 133116,
          "period": "2026-09-15"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "b0c77db6-f3c4-42d3-b06f-1760211878e9",
        "change_pct": -0.043023,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Lithium mine production",
        "slug": "lithium-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "05ede675-4f6c-4ce1-85c3-b68f3ead729d",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural graphite mine production",
        "slug": "graphite-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": null,
        "latest": null,
        "previous": null,
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "634b9991-c4e4-4985-9658-99dc958058d6",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Nickel mine production",
        "slug": "nickel-mine-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 2510,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263821,
          "value": 10000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263811,
          "value": 7490,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "6345b16a-5918-4944-bfb9-ba1f7a242d60",
        "change_pct": 0.335113,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Rare earth mine production",
        "slug": "rare-earth-production",
        "unit": "metric tons",
        "change": 5500,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263979,
          "value": 51000,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263966,
          "value": 45500,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "56bf3fb6-2bbe-4370-bc1b-7e01a58790cf",
        "change_pct": 0.120879,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employment",
        "slug": "us-mining-employment",
        "unit": "thousands of persons",
        "change": 3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 176223,
          "value": 569.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 176222,
          "value": 566.9,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "9102b052-197d-4c31-bcf0-7d01d7715ec0",
        "change_pct": 0.005292,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 3,
    "comparable": 7,
    "consistent": 4
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 1059,
    "last_period": "2026-09-22",
    "change_count": 1058,
    "first_period": "2006-06-13"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 410470,
    "value": 65106,
    "period": "2026-09-15"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 5792.5182,
    "robust_z": 2.9949,
    "mad_change": 3907,
    "change_count": 1057,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 68,
    "value_percentile": 0.9669,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.9385
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 672.224242,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": 184,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -0.0843,
    "second_difference": 34464,
    "second_difference_z": 4.521,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      266946,
      266947,
      266948,
      266949,
      266950,
      266951,
      266952,
      409186,
      410470,
      410564
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      409186,
      410470,
      410564
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 266916,
      "value": 75619,
      "period": "2025-12-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 266917,
      "value": 71019,
      "period": "2025-12-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 266918,
      "value": 68242,
      "period": "2026-01-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 266919,
      "value": 63391,
      "period": "2026-01-13"
    },
    {
      "id": 266920,
      "value": 62806,
      "period": "2026-01-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 266921,
      "value": 58018,
      "period": "2026-01-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 266922,
      "value": 55923,
      "period": "2026-02-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 266923,
      "value": 55564,
      "period": "2026-02-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 266924,
      "value": 53774,
      "period": "2026-02-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 266925,
      "value": 51027,
      "period": "2026-02-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 266926,
      "value": 48494,
      "period": "2026-03-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 266927,
      "value": 47676,
      "period": "2026-03-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 266928,
      "value": 46558,
      "period": "2026-03-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 266929,
      "value": 35284,
      "period": "2026-03-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 266930,
      "value": 39172,
      "period": "2026-03-31"
    },
    {
      "id": 266931,
      "value": 38393,
      "period": "2026-04-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 266932,
      "value": 52333,
      "period": "2026-04-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 266933,
      "value": 59585,
      "period": "2026-04-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 266934,
      "value": 60937,
      "period": "2026-04-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 266935,
      "value": 63473,
      "period": "2026-05-05"
    },
    {
      "id": 266936,
      "value": 74488,
      "period": "2026-05-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 266937,
      "value": 74188,
      "period": "2026-05-19"
    },
    {
      "id": 266938,
      "value": 70500,
      "period": "2026-05-26"
    },
    {
      "id": 266939,
      "value": 75747,
      "period": "2026-06-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 266940,
      "value": 69204,
      "period": "2026-06-09"
    },
    {
      "id": 266941,
      "value": 69008,
      "period": "2026-06-16"
    },
    {
      "id": 266942,
      "value": 66547,
      "period": "2026-06-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 266943,
      "value": 59703,
      "period": "2026-06-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 266944,
      "value": 58784,
      "period": "2026-07-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 266945,
      "value": 60185,
      "period": "2026-07-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 266946,
      "value": 71515,
      "period": "2026-07-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 266947,
      "value": 65008,
      "period": "2026-07-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 266948,
      "value": 75758,
      "period": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "id": 266949,
      "value": 79027,
      "period": "2026-08-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 266950,
      "value": 78648,
      "period": "2026-08-18"
    },
    {
      "id": 266951,
      "value": 76271,
      "period": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 266952,
      "value": 72882,
      "period": "2026-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 409186,
      "value": 82154,
      "period": "2026-09-08"
    },
    {
      "id": 410470,
      "value": 65106,
      "period": "2026-09-15"
    },
    {
      "id": 410564,
      "value": 82522,
      "period": "2026-09-22"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

20 observations, 11 metrics, relevance score row 323 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).