Objective, 2x by 2040, United States
Double US electricity generation by 2040
What would have to happen for the United States to generate twice as much electricity in 2040 as it does today?
Current level
4.47Mmillion kilowatthoursDerived
12 months to 2026-06
Sum of the twelve latest monthly observations.
Target level in 2040
8.95Mmillion kilowatthoursDerived
2040
Current level times 2.
Required annual addition
319,520.95million kilowatthours per yearDerived
12 months to 2026-06 to 2040
(target minus current) divided by 14 years. A straight line, not a plan.
Recent pace, trailing 5-year average change
79,982.35million kilowatthours per yearDerived
12 months to 2021-06 to 12 months to 2026-06
(12 months to 2026-06 level minus 12 months to 2021-06 level) divided by 5.
Forecast pace, Forecast Lab 5-year horizon
unavailableModeled
The Forecast Lab forecasts this series monthly at 1 to 12 month horizons; no annual trajectory is stored.
Required pace minus recent pace
239,538.6million kilowatthours per yearDerived
Positive means the objective needs a faster pace than the trailing five years delivered.
Required pace minus forecast pace
unavailableModeled
The Forecast Lab forecasts this series monthly at 1 to 12 month horizons; no annual trajectory is stored.
Target metric US electricity net generation, entity Electricity system, base year 2026, 14 years to go, forecast us-electricity-net-generation 5-year.
Same engine, same stored rows, no AI
Explore a different target
Backward walk over requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges, depth 4, 5 constraints
Dependency tree
Objective on the left, what it needs to the right
- Candidate
- Hypothesized
- Mechanism supported
- Causally supported
- Established relation
depth 1 Transmission and distribution gridinfrastructure system84 to 180 months
Established relationrequires inputstrength 1confidence 0.99relationshipwhy Transmission and distribution grid
Electricity is generated in one place and used in another. Delivering it to homes and industry physically requires transmission lines, substations and distribution networks; access statistics count connections to that network.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- 84 to 180 months (Interstate transmission projects from initiation through permitting and construction.) U.S. Department of Energy, Grid Deployment Office Recommended
New transmission takes on average around 10 years to complete, with some projects requiring 15 years or more; permits alone average more than four years.
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- US generation pipeline, stage-weighted, expected online within 24 months: 112,974.47 MW (2026-08-01) Modeled
288,544 MW of planned generators in the EIA-860M 2026-08 inventory before stage weights; 116,711 MW came online in the trailing 24 months (observed).
- Also needed by
- Data center
depth 2 Power transformerproduct24 to 60 months
Established relationrequires inputstrength 1confidence 0.99relationshipwhy Power transformer
Power is transmitted at high voltage to limit losses and stepped down for distribution. Every generator connection, substation and distribution feeder passes through transformers, so grid expansion and interconnection queues move with transformer supply and lead times.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- 24 to 60 months (Delivery of a large power transformer from order, at current order books; a new transformer plant takes longer.) U.S. Department of Energy Recommended
Lead times for large power transformers can reach as much as 60 months; the NIAC report of June 2024 puts current lead times at roughly two to four years.
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- Grid Investment Pulse: 0.3002 fraction (2026-06-30) Derived
8 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 3 Refined coppercommodity120 to 240 monthsbottleneck row
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.8confidence 0.95relationshipwhy Refined copper
Transformer windings are conductors carrying the full load current. Copper is the standard winding material for its conductivity and mechanical strength; aluminum windings are used in many distribution transformers at a larger cross-section.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- Copper: insufficient data, severity 85.48 (2026-07-01) Recommended
- Lead time
- 120 to 240 months (expansion lead time, bottlenecks table) Humanity Vector Recommended
- Substitutes
- Primary aluminum: Aluminum windings, larger cross-section for the same current; common in distribution transformers.
- Response under way
- Heavy Industry Pulse: -0.165 fraction (2026-08-02) Derived
4 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
- Also needed by
- Residential construction
depth 3 Primary aluminumcommodity
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.4confidence 0.9relationshipwhy Primary aluminum
Aluminum is the alternative winding conductor and is used in tank and structural parts; it is lighter and cheaper per unit of conductance but needs more volume.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- Refined copper: Copper windings where space and strength matter.
- Response under way
- Heavy Industry Pulse: -0.165 fraction (2026-08-02) Derived
4 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
depth 3 Grain-oriented electrical steelmaterial
Established relationrequires inputstrength 0.9confidence 0.95relationshipwhy Grain-oriented electrical steel
Transformer cores are stacked laminations of grain-oriented electrical steel chosen for low core loss. Amorphous alloy cores are a partial alternative in distribution units; there is no drop-in core material for large power transformers.
- Input coefficient
- hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient
- Bottleneck status
- no bottleneck row stored
- Lead time
- no cited lead time
- Substitutes
- none stored on this edge
- Response under way
- Heavy Industry Pulse: -0.165 fraction (2026-08-02) Derived
4 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
- Also needed by
- no other stored dependent
Arithmetic on stored values; ranges follow the inputs
Required additions
| Quantity | Value | Class | Basis |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required annual addition (target minus current) divided by 14 years. A straight line, not a plan. | 319,520.95 million kilowatthours per year | Derived | obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 obs:245390 obs:245391 +6 |
| Capacity added per year if all utility solar Required annual generation divided by 8760 hours and a capacity factor of 0.2 to 0.3 (cited). | 121.58 to 182.37 GW per year | Modeled | coef:cf_solar_utility obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 obs:245390 +8 |
| Copper needed per year if all utility solar Capacity times 2800 to 2900 kg of copper per MW (hypothesized, read from a chart). | 340.43 to 528.89 thousand metric tons per year | Modeled | coef:cf_solar_utility coef:copper_per_mw_solar obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 +10 |
| Capacity added per year if all onshore wind Required annual generation divided by 8760 hours and a capacity factor of 0.3 to 0.55 (cited). | 66.32 to 121.58 GW per year | Modeled | coef:cf_wind_onshore obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 obs:245390 +8 |
| Copper needed per year if all onshore wind Capacity times 2900 to 3000 kg of copper per MW (hypothesized, read from a chart). | 192.32 to 364.75 thousand metric tons per year | Modeled | coef:cf_wind_onshore coef:copper_per_mw_wind_onshore obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 +10 |
| Capacity added per year if all gas combined cycle Required annual generation divided by 8760 hours and a capacity factor of 0.3 to 0.9 (cited). | 40.53 to 121.58 GW per year | Modeled | coef:cf_gas_combined_cycle obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 obs:245390 +8 |
| Copper needed per year if all gas combined cycle Capacity times 1100 to 1200 kg of copper per MW (hypothesized, read from a chart). | 44.58 to 145.9 thousand metric tons per year | Modeled | coef:cf_gas_combined_cycle coef:copper_per_mw_gas obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 +10 |
| Capacity added per year if all nuclear Required annual generation divided by 8760 hours and a capacity factor of 0.89 to 0.92 (cited). | 39.65 to 40.98 GW per year | Modeled | coef:cf_nuclear obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 obs:245390 +8 |
| Copper needed per year if all nuclear Capacity times 1400 to 1500 kg of copper per MW (hypothesized, read from a chart). | 55.51 to 61.47 thousand metric tons per year | Modeled | coef:cf_nuclear coef:copper_per_mw_nuclear obs:245386 obs:245387 obs:245388 obs:245389 +10 |
| Transmission and distribution grid needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:5148efdc-e97b-4641-a51f-cf6e681c89d5 |
| Power transformer needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:0f9233ff-917a-41b9-bf03-ffb05c829ced |
| Refined copper needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:57478abe-2355-4de1-8b4d-be19c58b7045 |
| Primary aluminum needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:aa5d07e3-221c-4748-b5bc-d3b871fcb961 |
| Grain-oriented electrical steel needed per year | not estimated | hypothesized dependence | rel:361814d4-9451-4107-b575-92a3073b6956 |
Capacity pipeline and corporate pulses that map to the walk
Current pipeline and responses
US generation pipeline, stage-weighted, expected online within 24 months112,974.47MWModeled2026-08-01
288,544 MW of planned generators in the EIA-860M 2026-08 inventory before stage weights; 116,711 MW came online in the trailing 24 months (observed).
Grid Investment Pulse0.3002fractionDerived2026-06-30
8 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
Heavy Industry Pulse-0.165fractionDerived2026-08-02
4 companies contributed to the stored pulse.
Only where a coefficient and a sourced unit cost both exist
Capital
Capital per year if all utility solar
139.82 to 291.8billion USD (2025 dollars) per yearModeled
Capacity times 1,150 to 1,600 USD per kW. Generation plant only: no transmission, storage, land or financing cost. Unit cost 1,150 to 1,600 USD per kW, Lazard.
Capital per year if all onshore wind
126 to 279.64billion USD (2025 dollars) per yearModeled
Capacity times 1,900 to 2,300 USD per kW. Generation plant only: no transmission, storage, land or financing cost. Unit cost 1,900 to 2,300 USD per kW, Lazard.
Capital per year if all gas combined cycle
48.63 to 194.53billion USD (2025 dollars) per yearModeled
Capacity times 1,200 to 1,600 USD per kW. Generation plant only: no transmission, storage, land or financing cost. Unit cost 1,200 to 1,600 USD per kW, Lazard.
Capital per year if all nuclear
357.61 to 607.37billion USD (2025 dollars) per yearModeled
Capacity times 9,020 to 14,820 USD per kW. Generation plant only: no transmission, storage, land or financing cost. Unit cost 9,020 to 14,820 USD per kW, Lazard.
Downstream systems that compete for the same inputs; the engine does not rank them
Tradeoffs
Electricity system depth 0
Also needed by Semiconductor fabrication plant (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
Transmission and distribution grid depth 1
Also needed by Data center (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
Refined copper depth 3
Also needed by Residential construction (requires input). Pursuing this objective draws on an input those systems also need; which should have it is a choice this site does not make.
What is unavailable, hypothesized or modeled
Uncertainty
- Forecast pace: The Forecast Lab forecasts this series monthly at 1 to 12 month horizons; no annual trajectory is stored.
- Transmission and distribution grid: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Power transformer: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Refined copper: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Primary aluminum: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Grain-oriented electrical steel: hypothesized dependence, no stored coefficient, so no quantity of it is computed.
- Capital not estimated for Transmission and distribution grid, Power transformer, Refined copper, Primary aluminum, Grain-oriented electrical steel: no coefficient plus unit cost pair is stored for them.
Stated, versioned, and shown before the numbers are trusted
Assumptions
- Base year 2026: the required pace divides the whole gap evenly over 14 years.
- The constraint walk follows requires_input, depends_on and constrains edges to depth 4; an entity reached twice is listed once at its shortest depth. Anything the curated graph does not store is not listed.
- Lead times are order-to-delivery or discovery-to-production ranges from the cited documents; they do not include financing or permitting unless the source says so.
- Each capacity scenario assumes every added kilowatt-hour comes from one technology; real additions mix technologies, so the four rows bound the range rather than predict it.
- Capacity factors and capital costs are the Lazard LCOE+ v18 (June 2025) assumption ranges for new US builds, not observed fleet averages.
AI-written from the numbers above, grok-4.3, prompt 1.0.0, validated against the packet
Narrative
The objective asks for US electricity generation to reach [q:target] in 2040 from [q:current] today. The required annual addition is [q:required]. Recent pace is [q:recent]. Forecast pace is unavailable. The data are consistent with the required pace exceeding the recent pace by [q:gap_recent].
Deepest lead times first: [rel:57478abe-2355-4de1-8b4d-be19c58b7045] lead time 120 to 240 months, bottleneck: Copper (insufficient data), substitutes: Primary aluminum; [rel:aa5d07e3-221c-4748-b5bc-d3b871fcb961] substitutes: Refined copper; [rel:361814d4-9451-4107-b575-92a3073b6956]; [rel:0f9233ff-917a-41b9-bf03-ffb05c829ced] lead time 24 to 60 months; [rel:5148efdc-e97b-4641-a51f-cf6e681c89d5] lead time 84 to 180 months. Electricity system also needed by Semiconductor fabrication plant. Transmission and distribution grid also needed by Data center. Refined copper also needed by Residential construction.
Forecast pace unavailable because the Forecast Lab forecasts this series monthly at 1 to 12 month horizons; no annual trajectory is stored. Capacity added quantities are modeled with ranges because of capacity factors 0.2 to 0.3 for utility solar, 0.3 to 0.55 for onshore wind, 0.3 to 0.9 for gas combined cycle and 0.89 to 0.92 for nuclear. Copper needed quantities are modeled with ranges because usage rates are hypothesized, read from a chart. Capital quantities are modeled with ranges because of the cited USD per kW ranges. US generation pipeline is stage-weighted.
ai run 686cb4fa-ff33-4b01-bd50-c4cb9df55ef8, 2026-10-19 00:24 UTC. The model restates computed values and cites packet ids; it adds no figure and makes no recommendation.