Relationship, depends on

Construction and mortgage financing depends on Policy interest rate

The stored status is what a reviewer approved. The level below it is what the overlapping data support; the two are shown side by side and only a human moves the status.

Stored statusMechanism supportedEvidence level (latest analysis)not analysed yet

Mechanism, evidence, reviewer judgements

The edge as stored

Construction and mortgage financing depends on Policy interest rate2 evidenceMechanism supported

Construction and mortgage financing depends on Policy interest rate.

Mechanism

The policy rate anchors short-term funding costs, and mortgage and construction loan rates move with expectations of it. Higher rates raise monthly payments and lower project returns, which reduces affordability and starts with a lag.

Evidence

documentFederal Reserve, Monetary Policyfederalreserve.govThe policy rate and its transmission to borrowing costs.checked 2026-09-07
documentHUD, U.S. Housing Market Conditionshuduser.govHousing supply, finance and affordability data.checked 2026-09-07

Status: mechanism_supported
Reviewer confidence: 0.85
Stated strength: 0.70
Lag: 30 to 540 days
Version: curated_seed_v1
Reviewed: 2026-09-07

Confidence and strength are curated judgements recorded with the edge, not measured quantities.

Entity pages: Construction and mortgage financing, Policy interest rate. Part of the mechanism A higher policy rate raises borrowing cost, which reduces construction financing and residential building.

Not computed

Statistical evidence

No analysis has been stored for this edge. The causal.analyze_all job runs monthly over every edge with a catalog metric linked to both entities; edges without a series on both ends are not analysed.

Not computed

Causal estimate

A causal estimate needs at least 20 overlapping periods and was not attempted for this edge yet.

What each rung means

Levels

Level 0: No association found
the overlapping data show no significant association.
Level 1: Correlation only
statistically associated in the overlapping periods; no direction, no mechanism.
Level 2: Predictive lead/lag
one series historically contains predictive information about the other.
Level 3: Mechanism supported
a documented physical, economic or institutional mechanism with cited evidence.
Level 4: Causally supported
a backdoor-adjusted estimate that survived refutation, on stated assumptions.
Level 5: Established relation
follows from engineering, accounting or scientific structure.

Every stored run, newest first

Analysis history

No runs stored.