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Relationship, enables

Electricity system enables Human health and longevity

The stored status is what a reviewer approved. The level below it is what the overlapping data support; the two are shown side by side and only a human moves the status.

Stored statusHypothesizedEvidence level (latest analysis)Level 0: No association found
The latest analysis supports only level 0 from the data alone, below the stored status. The stored status rests on the mechanism and evidence listed below, which statistics on two world series cannot confirm or remove.

Mechanism, evidence, reviewer judgements

The edge as stored

Electricity system enables Human health and longevity2 evidenceHypothesized

Human health and longevity depends on Electricity system.

Mechanism

Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows refrigeration of vaccines and food, lighting in clinics, water pumping and a shift away from solid cooking fuels, all of which bear on mortality. The catalog carries both series; no study is attached.

Status
hypothesized
Reviewer confidence
0.60
Stated strength
not stated
Lag
not stated
Version
curated_seed_v1
Reviewed
2026-09-07

Confidence and strength are curated judgements recorded with the edge, not measured quantities.

Entity pages: Electricity system, Human health and longevity.

Level 0 evidence, computed 2026-09-07 22:15 UTC

Correlation

DerivedLevel 0: No association found

Population with access to electricity against Life expectancy at birth, geography WLD, 27 overlapping years (1998 to 2024). Primary statistics on diff (first differences, because at least one series has a unit root; levels are shown for comparison).

Pearson r (diff)

-0.117

p 0.5689

Spearman rho (diff)

-0.209

p 0.3058

Pearson r (levels)

0.964

two trending series correlate in levels by construction

Rolling r

-0.169

min -0.599, max 0.515, 3 sign changes

Population with access to electricity and Life expectancy at birth, each scaled to its own range over 1998 to 2024Aligned series, scaled 0 to 1 over the overlap00.51Population with access to electricity, 1998: 73.201Population with access to electricity, 1999: 74.508Population with access to electricity, 2000: 78.225Population with access to electricity, 2001: 78.719Population with access to electricity, 2002: 79.104Population with access to electricity, 2003: 79.968Population with access to electricity, 2004: 79.956Population with access to electricity, 2005: 80.705Population with access to electricity, 2006: 81.357Population with access to electricity, 2007: 81.975Population with access to electricity, 2008: 82.671Population with access to electricity, 2009: 82.869Population with access to electricity, 2010: 83.450Population with access to electricity, 2011: 84.509Population with access to electricity, 2012: 84.939Population with access to electricity, 2013: 85.714Population with access to electricity, 2014: 86.199Population with access to electricity, 2015: 86.927Population with access to electricity, 2016: 88.108Population with access to electricity, 2017: 88.936Population with access to electricity, 2018: 89.801Population with access to electricity, 2019: 90.109Population with access to electricity, 2020: 90.400Population with access to electricity, 2021: 91.339Population with access to electricity, 2022: 91.282Population with access to electricity, 2023: 91.603Population with access to electricity, 2024: 91.926Life expectancy at birth, 1998: 67.067Life expectancy at birth, 1999: 67.312Life expectancy at birth, 2000: 67.650Life expectancy at birth, 2001: 67.945Life expectancy at birth, 2002: 68.231Life expectancy at birth, 2003: 68.516Life expectancy at birth, 2004: 68.771Life expectancy at birth, 2005: 69.111Life expectancy at birth, 2006: 69.469Life expectancy at birth, 2007: 69.805Life expectancy at birth, 2008: 70.004Life expectancy at birth, 2009: 70.380Life expectancy at birth, 2010: 70.683Life expectancy at birth, 2011: 70.969Life expectancy at birth, 2012: 71.265Life expectancy at birth, 2013: 71.533Life expectancy at birth, 2014: 71.776Life expectancy at birth, 2015: 71.966Life expectancy at birth, 2016: 72.186Life expectancy at birth, 2017: 72.366Life expectancy at birth, 2018: 72.644Life expectancy at birth, 2019: 72.870Life expectancy at birth, 2020: 72.183Life expectancy at birth, 2021: 71.216Life expectancy at birth, 2022: 72.969Life expectancy at birth, 2023: 73.330Life expectancy at birth, 2024: 73.482Population with access to electricLife expectancy at birthRolling correlation, window 8 (on the primary transform)-101rolling r ending 2006: 0.35rolling r ending 2007: 0.43rolling r ending 2008: 0.25rolling r ending 2009: -0.01rolling r ending 2010: -0.04rolling r ending 2011: -0.06rolling r ending 2012: -0.40rolling r ending 2013: -0.50rolling r ending 2014: -0.45rolling r ending 2015: -0.50rolling r ending 2016: -0.60rolling r ending 2017: -0.30rolling r ending 2018: -0.17rolling r ending 2019: -0.25rolling r ending 2020: 0.51rolling r ending 2021: 0.08rolling r ending 2022: -0.48rolling r ending 2023: -0.49rolling r ending 2024: -0.6019982004201120182024
  • no significant association on diff (n 27)
  • no one-way predictive lead/lag

Cross-correlation scan and Granger-style tests

Lead and lag

Cross-correlation by lag between Population with access to electricity and Life expectancy at birth; positive lag means Population with access to electricity leadsCross-correlation by lag (positive lag: Population with access to el leads)-1-0.500.51lag -5: r 0.40 (n 21), strongest-5lag -4: r 0.18 (n 22)-4lag -3: r 0.23 (n 23)-3lag -2: r 0.16 (n 24)-2lag -1: r -0.00 (n 25)-1lag 0: r -0.12 (n 26)0lag 1: r 0.17 (n 25)+1lag 2: r -0.02 (n 24)+2lag 3: r -0.13 (n 23)+3lag 4: r -0.05 (n 22)+4lag 5: r -0.03 (n 21)+5lag in periods; strongest at -5 (r 0.40), same period r -0.12
DirectionTestedlag 1 plag 2 plag 3 plag 4 plag 5 pmin pReading
Population with access to electricity helps predict Life expectancy at birthyes0.4680.7580.4610.5930.4370.4369no predictive information beyond own past
Life expectancy at birth helps predict Population with access to electricityyes0.9580.8010.4140.2130.3060.2126no predictive information beyond own past

Granger-style F-tests on the primary transform: whether lagged values of one series improve a regression of the other on its own lags. Predictive information is not causation; a common driver that moves one series earlier produces the same pattern.

Reading: neither series adds predictive information about the other beyond its own past.

Cointegration
no (p 0.589)
Changepoints
Population with ac: 1, Life expectancy at: 1
ADF p (levels)
0.603, 0.119
Service
causal-service/0.1.0

Not computed

Causal estimate

A causal estimate is attempted only for edges at mechanism supported or above: without a documented mechanism there is no graph to adjust on, and a regression coefficient alone would be pattern discovery dressed as a cause.

Alternative explanations for the association

What else could explain it

  • Both series trend with world development; the primary statistics use first differences to limit that, not remove it.
  • A common driver (income, urbanisation, technology) can move both series with different lags and produce a lead/lag pattern without any direct effect.
  • World aggregates hide country composition: a change in which countries report can move a world series.
  • Reverse direction: Human health and longevity may act on Electricity system.
  • Both series are revised by their source; the analysis uses the current vintage, not the vintage available at the time.

What each rung means

Levels

  1. Level 0: No association found

    the overlapping data show no significant association.

  2. Level 1: Correlation only

    statistically associated in the overlapping periods; no direction, no mechanism.

  3. Level 2: Predictive lead/lag

    one series historically contains predictive information about the other.

  4. Level 3: Mechanism supported

    a documented physical, economic or institutional mechanism with cited evidence.

  5. Level 4: Causally supported

    a backdoor-adjusted estimate that survived refutation, on stated assumptions.

  6. Level 5: Established relation

    follows from engineering, accounting or scientific structure.

Every stored run, newest first

Analysis history

  • 2026-09-07 22:15 correlate level 0 n 27 causal-service/0.1.0