Cereal yield · World · as of 2024
Cereal yield (World) fell 6.52% in 2024, the largest annual change in the recorded series
Cereal yield for World was 3,954.95 kg per hectare in 2024, down 276.07 kg per hectare (-6.52%) from 4,231.01 in 2023; that change ranks in the 100th percentile of annual changes recorded since 1961.
Cereal yield
Against its own history
- Robust z
- -4.54
- Change percentile
- 100th of 62 earlier absolute changes
- Value percentile
- 87th of earlier values
- Median change
- 42.12 (scale 70.07, mad)
- Second difference
- -321.95 (z -2.32)
- Slope divergence
- -1.88
- Rarity
- largest move in the recorded series
Record
- Relevance
- 0.361
- Confidence
- 70%
- Status
- published
- Discovered
- 2026-09-07 10:05 UTC
- Expires
- 2026-10-07 10:05 UTC
- Model
- relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
- Validation
- passed
- Causal level
- candidate
Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.
Relevance components
- Statistical surprise: the latest change of -276.07 kg per hectare is -4.5 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (62 earlier changes), at the 100th percentile of absolute changes. Component 1.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.180.
- Acceleration: second-difference z -2.3; short-versus-long slope divergence -1.88. Component 0.60, weight 0.12, contribution 0.072.
- Breadth: 1 of 1 related metrics (same category, Food & Water) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods. Component 0.33, weight 0.16, contribution 0.053.
- Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
- Historical rarity: no larger move exists in the recorded series (window 20 years). Component 0.70, weight 0.08, contribution 0.056.
- Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
- Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
- Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.
Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.361, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.
What changed and how unusual it is
What changed. The latest current observation for Cereal yield, World, is 3,954.95 kg per hectare for 2024 (obs 2945). The previous period, 2023, recorded 4,231.01 kg per hectare (obs 2946). The change is -276.07 kg per hectare, or -6.52%. Under the metric's direction rule (higher is better) that reads as worsening.
How unusual. Against the 62 earlier annual changes since 1961, the median change is +42.12 kg per hectare and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 70.07, giving a robust z-score of -4.5. The absolute change sits at the 100th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 87th percentile of earlier values. No earlier move in the recorded series was larger.
Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -321.95 kg per hectare, a robust z of -2.3 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -115.09 kg per hectare per period against +16.64 over the last 10, a divergence of -1.88 change-scale units.
Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.
Modeled interpretation
Explanation
The data are consistent with lower cereal yield [observation:2945] than the prior year [observation:2946]. Both values are marked observed. The series begins with an earlier observed value of 1421.61931441335 kg per hectare in 1961 [observation:3008].
Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)
The observed difference may reflect measurement variation or reporting adjustments rather than a sustained trend.
Why now
High surprise_score and rarity_score in the supplied features flagged the annual shift for review.
What to watch
Subsequent cereal yield readings for WLD [observation:2945] and related freshwater metrics [observation:107865].
Supporting metrics
| Metric | Latest | Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renewable freshwater resources per personcategory | 5,392.94 cubic metres per person per year (2022) | -37.65 (-0.69%) | obs 107865, obs 107866 |
No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.
What points the other way
No related metric in the evidence packet moved against this one as of their latest periods. That is consistency among the metrics held here, not proof of a shared cause.
Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.
Measurable indicators
- The next Cereal yield observation (2025): a change no larger than the median annual change of +42.12 kg per hectare, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
- Renewable freshwater resources per person, currently 5,392.94 cubic metres per person per year in 2022 (obs 107865): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- Revisions: a revised 2024 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 2945) and trigger a rescore.
- Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Every number links here
| Observation | Metric | Period | Value | Role | Series | Ingested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2945 | Cereal yieldWLD | 2024 | 3,954.95 kg per hectare | primary | AG.YLD.CREL.KG | 2026-09-07 05:31 UTC |
| 2946 | Cereal yieldWLD | 2023 | 4,231.01 kg per hectare | primary | AG.YLD.CREL.KG | 2026-09-07 05:31 UTC |
| 3008 | Cereal yieldWLD | 1961 | 1,421.62 kg per hectare | context | AG.YLD.CREL.KG | 2026-09-07 05:31 UTC |
| 107865 | Renewable freshwater resources per personWLD | 2022 | 5,392.94 cubic metres per person per year | supporting | ER.H2O.INTR.PC | 2026-09-07 05:31 UTC |
| 107866 | Renewable freshwater resources per personWLD | 2021 | 5,430.6 cubic metres per person per year | supporting | ER.H2O.INTR.PC | 2026-09-07 05:31 UTC |
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
"as_of": "2024-01-01",
"change": {
"pct": -0.065248,
"value": -276.065052,
"observation_ids": [
2945,
2946
]
},
"latest": {
"id": 2945,
"value": 3954.94991639854,
"period": "2024-01-01"
},
"metric": {
"id": "7e539f59-dcfb-4a96-970b-97cc4464dfd2",
"kind": "observed",
"name": "Cereal yield",
"slug": "cereal-yield",
"unit": "kg per hectare",
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "annual",
"category_id": "3f4c04a6-ead7-4240-af58-85acd53c030f",
"category_name": "Food & Water",
"category_slug": "food-water",
"geography_default": "WLD",
"frequency_normalised": "annual"
},
"rarity": {
"prior_max": {
"id": 2946,
"value": 4231.01496843112,
"period": "2023-01-01"
},
"prior_min": {
"id": 3008,
"value": 1421.61931441335,
"period": "1961-01-01"
},
"abs_change": 276.065052,
"all_time_low": false,
"largest_ever": true,
"window_years": 20,
"all_time_high": false,
"window_periods": 20,
"last_larger_move": null,
"largest_in_window": true,
"periods_since_larger_move": 62
},
"scores": {
"rarity": 0.7,
"breadth": 0.3333,
"surprise": 1,
"centrality": 0,
"acceleration": 0.5988,
"forecast_impact": 0,
"public_attention": 0,
"bottleneck_impact": 0
},
"breadth": {
"via": "category",
"share": 1,
"related": [
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Renewable freshwater resources per person",
"slug": "renewable-freshwater-per-person",
"unit": "cubic metres per person per year",
"change": -37.652065,
"latest": {
"id": 107865,
"value": 5392.94445818055,
"period": "2022-01-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 107866,
"value": 5430.59652327663,
"period": "2021-01-01"
},
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "annual",
"metric_id": "09fd6f48-b9cd-42be-bec1-5b6f7be06fb4",
"change_pct": -0.006933,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
}
],
"opposite": 0,
"comparable": 1,
"consistent": 1
},
"history": {
"count": 64,
"last_period": "2024-01-01",
"change_count": 63,
"first_period": "1961-01-01"
},
"version": "features_v1",
"previous": {
"id": 2946,
"value": 4231.01496843112,
"period": "2023-01-01"
},
"surprise": {
"note": null,
"scale": 70.065325,
"robust_z": -4.5412,
"mad_change": 47.258414,
"change_count": 62,
"scale_method": "mad",
"median_change": 42.116104,
"value_percentile": 0.873,
"abs_change_percentile": 1
},
"geography": {
"id": "78003c5f-01ca-4736-a9c4-8f5bfb6fcaae",
"code": "WLD",
"name": "World"
},
"centrality": {
"value": 0,
"source": "none",
"entity_ids": [
"9df90e9e-18f9-40ee-8852-cbecfa8817c3",
"dfd2cc4a-254a-4f60-8aa2-7c002c81e9d6"
],
"entity_slugs": [
"crop-production",
"food-system"
]
},
"acceleration": {
"note": null,
"long_slope": 16.636391,
"long_window": 10,
"short_slope": -115.089235,
"short_window": 3,
"slope_divergence": -1.88,
"second_difference": -321.951635,
"second_difference_z": -2.3211,
"long_observation_ids": [
2954,
2953,
2952,
2951,
2950,
2949,
2948,
2947,
2946,
2945
],
"short_observation_ids": [
2947,
2946,
2945
]
},
"series_window": [
{
"id": 2984,
"value": 2695.35947081804,
"period": "1985-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2983,
"value": 2690.08652129414,
"period": "1986-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2982,
"value": 2677.48752263924,
"period": "1987-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2981,
"value": 2600.40810185873,
"period": "1988-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2980,
"value": 2754.99566633829,
"period": "1989-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2979,
"value": 2870.94913188413,
"period": "1990-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2978,
"value": 2860.83456864868,
"period": "1991-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2977,
"value": 2781.7240557107,
"period": "1992-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2976,
"value": 2732.42611624442,
"period": "1993-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2975,
"value": 2810.91982481182,
"period": "1994-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2974,
"value": 2762.64905021341,
"period": "1995-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2973,
"value": 2922.35648723789,
"period": "1996-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2972,
"value": 2986.92117594616,
"period": "1997-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2971,
"value": 3046.48336847218,
"period": "1998-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2970,
"value": 3107.40433487581,
"period": "1999-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2969,
"value": 3060.9449358139,
"period": "2000-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2968,
"value": 3132.64450217769,
"period": "2001-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2967,
"value": 3075.82204340635,
"period": "2002-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2966,
"value": 3119.3050101833,
"period": "2003-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2965,
"value": 3358.68331902324,
"period": "2004-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2964,
"value": 3275.6350320339,
"period": "2005-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2963,
"value": 3281.10352223039,
"period": "2006-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2962,
"value": 3370.91280101555,
"period": "2007-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2961,
"value": 3544.8247085824,
"period": "2008-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2960,
"value": 3557.60050109999,
"period": "2009-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2959,
"value": 3562.69190601327,
"period": "2010-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2958,
"value": 3656.14439082207,
"period": "2011-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2957,
"value": 3611.6817052139,
"period": "2012-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2956,
"value": 3829.65775177121,
"period": "2013-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2955,
"value": 3894.46497746712,
"period": "2014-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2954,
"value": 3932.2284506646,
"period": "2015-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2953,
"value": 4016.96327564588,
"period": "2016-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2952,
"value": 4066.36009915271,
"period": "2017-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2951,
"value": 4022.61783047749,
"period": "2018-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2950,
"value": 4123.57113175016,
"period": "2019-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2949,
"value": 4118.78181525301,
"period": "2020-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2948,
"value": 4173.65030439715,
"period": "2021-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2947,
"value": 4185.12838589955,
"period": "2022-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2946,
"value": 4231.01496843112,
"period": "2023-01-01"
},
{
"id": 2945,
"value": 3954.94991639854,
"period": "2024-01-01"
}
],
"forecast_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"public_attention": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"bottleneck_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
}
}Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.