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US Department of Defense contract obligations · United States · as of 2025-10-01

US Department of Defense contract obligations (United States) fell 24.02% in 2025-10-01, the largest annual change in the recorded series

US Department of Defense contract obligations for United States was 373,650,385,491 US dollars in 2025-10-01, down 118,128,688,748 US dollars (-24.02%) from 491,779,074,239 in 2024-10-01; that change ranks in the 100th percentile of annual changes recorded since 2007-10-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US Department of Defense contract obligations

373.65BUS dollars-24.02%
Latest
373.65B in 2025-10-01 obs 411204
Previous
491.78B in 2024-10-01 obs 411203
Change
-118.13B US dollars
History
19 observations, 2007-10-01 to 2025-10-01
19 points, 2007-10-01 to 2025-10-01
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
-3.87
Change percentile
100th of 17 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
50th of earlier values
Median change
5.8B (scale 32.05B, mad)
Second difference
-164.15B (z -6.85)
Slope divergence
-1.47
Rarity
largest move in the recorded series
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.368
Confidence
45%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-10-05 00:10 UTC
Expires
2026-11-04 00:10 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.98 × 0.18 = 0.176
Acceleration0.80 × 0.12 = 0.096
Breadth0.30 × 0.16 = 0.049
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.59 × 0.08 = 0.048
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.368
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of -118,128,688,748 US dollars is -3.9 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (17 earlier changes), at the 100th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.98, weight 0.18, contribution 0.176.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -6.9; short-versus-long slope divergence -1.47. Component 0.80, weight 0.12, contribution 0.096.
  • Breadth: 7 of 23 related metrics (same category, Economy & Capital) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 16 moved the other way. Component 0.30, weight 0.16, contribution 0.049.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: no larger move exists in the recorded series (window 20 years). Component 0.59, weight 0.08, contribution 0.048.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.368, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US Department of Defense contract obligations, United States, is 373,650,385,491 US dollars for 2025-10-01 (obs 411204). The previous period, 2024-10-01, recorded 491,779,074,239 US dollars (obs 411203). The change is -118,128,688,748 US dollars, or -24.02%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 17 earlier annual changes since 2007-10-01, the median change is +5,799,057,981 US dollars and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 32,045,245,601, giving a robust z-score of -3.9. The absolute change sits at the 100th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 50th percentile of earlier values. No earlier move in the recorded series was larger.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -164,149,013,579 US dollars, a robust z of -6.9 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -36,054,181,959 US dollars per period against +11,147,282,084 over the last 10, a divergence of -1.47 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 3e728eb9-0829-4044-978d-430d71e2edfc. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

The observed value for 2025-10-01 [observation:411204] is lower than the observed value for 2024-10-01 [observation:411203]. The data are consistent with a reduction in obligations. An earlier observed value from 2014-10-01 is 274198295606.97 US dollars [observation:272240].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal variation in annual contract timing.

Why now

The 2025-10-01 observation [observation:411204] became available for the recorded series that includes the 2024-10-01 observation [observation:411203].

What to watch

Subsequent observations of US Department of Defense contract obligations [observation:411204] and related federal contract obligations [observation:411216].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Consumer price inflation (IMF WEO)category2.73 percent change (2025)-0.2226 (-7.54%)obs 356291, obs 356290
Current account balance (IMF WEO)category-4.05 percent of GDP (2024)-0.7089 (-21.25%)obs 342513, obs 342512
Gross capital formation as share of GDPcategory21.53 percent of GDP (2024)-0.0375 (-0.17%)obs 60180, obs 60181
Labor hours per MWh of residential electricitycategory4.88 hours (2026-06-01)-0.04 (-0.81%)obs 411233, obs 404796
Real GDP growth (IMF WEO)category2.12 percent change (2025)-0.6758 (-24.19%)obs 364346, obs 364345
US 10-year Treasury yieldcategory5.24 percent (2026-10-01)-0.05 (-0.95%)obs 411082, obs 411081
US federal contract obligationscategory729.56B US dollars (2025-10-01)-48.97B (-6.29%)obs 411216, obs 411215

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

16 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • GDP per person, constant 2015 US$: +1,089.1 constant 2015 US$ per person (+1.63%) to 67,945.61 constant 2015 US$ per person in 2025 (obs 49154, obs 49155)
  • General government gross debt (IMF WEO): +1.62 percent of GDP (+1.32%) to 123.89 percent of GDP in 2025 (obs 348353, obs 348352)
  • Labor hours per 100 gallons of gasoline: +0.77 hours (+7.16%) to 11.52 hours in 2026-09-01 (obs 411232, obs 411231)
  • Labor hours per CPI basket, indexed to 2007: +0.0007 hours per 2007 hour-basket (+0.08%) to 0.8923 hours per 2007 hour-basket in 2026-08-01 (obs 411229, obs 411228)
  • Labour productivity, GDP per hour worked (OECD): +4.62 US dollars per hour, current prices and PPPs (+4.62%) to 104.74 US dollars per hour, current prices and PPPs in 2025 (obs 391708, obs 391346)
  • NASA contract obligations: +161,812,000 US dollars (+1.03%) to 15,946,642,148 US dollars in 2025-10-01 (obs 411220, obs 411219)
  • US Department of Energy contract obligations: +6,585,675,477 US dollars (+13.56%) to 55,135,013,856 US dollars in 2025-10-01 (obs 411205, obs 272268)
  • US average hourly earnings, all private employees: +0.05 US dollars per hour (+0.13%) to 37.81 US dollars per hour in 2026-09-01 (obs 410816, obs 410815)
  • US consumer price index, all items: +1.32 index 1982-1984=100 (+0.40%) to 334.13 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-08-01 (obs 409148, obs 167372)
  • US federal funds effective rate: +0.12 percent (+3.31%) to 3.75 percent in 2026-09-01 (obs 410817, obs 169072)
  • US federal heavy and civil engineering construction contract obligations: +2,041,856,048 US dollars (+14.46%) to 16,164,989,689 US dollars in 2025-10-01 (obs 411217, obs 410597)
  • US nonfarm payroll employment: +29 thousands of persons (+0.02%) to 159,044 thousands of persons in 2026-09-01 (obs 410852, obs 410851)
  • US real GDP: +133.63 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (+0.55%) to 24,408.01 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-04-01 (obs 410774, obs 410773)
  • US real private fixed investment: +85.49 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (+1.87%) to 4,645.79 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-04-01 (obs 410752, obs 410751)
  • US total business inventories: +22,175 millions of dollars (+0.81%) to 2,764,708 millions of dollars in 2026-07-01 (obs 410392, obs 410391)
  • US unemployment rate: +0.1 percent (+2.44%) to 4.2 percent in 2026-09-01 (obs 411088, obs 213832)

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause. The history is short (17 earlier changes), which makes the percentile and z readings coarse.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US Department of Defense contract obligations observation (2026-10-01): a change no larger than the median annual change of +5,799,057,981 US dollars, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Consumer price inflation (IMF WEO), currently 2.73 percent change in 2025 (obs 356291): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Current account balance (IMF WEO), currently -4.05 percent of GDP in 2024 (obs 342513): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Gross capital formation as share of GDP, currently 21.53 percent of GDP in 2024 (obs 60180): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2025-10-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 411204) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
411204US Department of Defense contract obligationsUSA2025-10-01373.65B US dollarsprimaryspending_over_time:dod-contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
411203US Department of Defense contract obligationsUSA2024-10-01491.78B US dollarsprimaryspending_over_time:dod-contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
272240US Department of Defense contract obligationsUSA2014-10-01274.2B US dollarscontextspending_over_time:dod-contracts2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
356291Consumer price inflation (IMF WEO)USA20252.73 percent changesupportingPCPIPCH2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
356290Consumer price inflation (IMF WEO)USA20242.95 percent changesupportingPCPIPCH2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
342513Current account balance (IMF WEO)USA2024-4.05 percent of GDPsupportingBCA_NGDPD2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
342512Current account balance (IMF WEO)USA2023-3.34 percent of GDPsupportingBCA_NGDPD2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
49154GDP per person, constant 2015 US$USA202567,945.61 constant 2015 US$ per personcounterNY.GDP.PCAP.KD2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
49155GDP per person, constant 2015 US$USA202466,856.51 constant 2015 US$ per personcounterNY.GDP.PCAP.KD2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
348353General government gross debt (IMF WEO)USA2025123.89 percent of GDPcounterGGXWDG_NGDP2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
348352General government gross debt (IMF WEO)USA2024122.27 percent of GDPcounterGGXWDG_NGDP2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
60180Gross capital formation as share of GDPUSA202421.53 percent of GDPsupportingNE.GDI.TOTL.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
60181Gross capital formation as share of GDPUSA202321.57 percent of GDPsupportingNE.GDI.TOTL.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
411232Labor hours per 100 gallons of gasolineUSA2026-09-0111.52 hourscounterlabor-hours-per-100-gallons-gasoline@1.02026-10-05 00:09 UTC
411231Labor hours per 100 gallons of gasolineUSA2026-08-0110.75 hourscounterlabor-hours-per-100-gallons-gasoline@1.02026-10-05 00:09 UTC
411229Labor hours per CPI basket, indexed to 2007USA2026-08-010.8923 hours per 2007 hour-basketcounterlabor-hours-cpi-basket-indexed@1.02026-10-05 00:09 UTC
411228Labor hours per CPI basket, indexed to 2007USA2026-07-010.8916 hours per 2007 hour-basketcounterlabor-hours-cpi-basket-indexed@1.02026-10-05 00:09 UTC
411233Labor hours per MWh of residential electricityUSA2026-06-014.88 hourssupportinglabor-hours-per-mwh-residential@1.02026-10-05 00:09 UTC
404796Labor hours per MWh of residential electricityUSA2026-05-014.92 hourssupportinglabor-hours-per-mwh-residential@1.02026-09-07 22:04 UTC
391708Labour productivity, GDP per hour worked (OECD)USA2025104.74 US dollars per hour, current prices and PPPscounterOECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB/.A.GDPHRS._T.USD_PPP_H.V.N._Z.PPP2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
391346Labour productivity, GDP per hour worked (OECD)USA2024100.12 US dollars per hour, current prices and PPPscounterOECD.SDD.TPS,DSD_PDB@DF_PDB/.A.GDPHRS._T.USD_PPP_H.V.N._Z.PPP2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
411220NASA contract obligationsUSA2025-10-0115.95B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:nasa-contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
411219NASA contract obligationsUSA2024-10-0115.78B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:nasa-contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
364346Real GDP growth (IMF WEO)USA20252.12 percent changesupportingNGDP_RPCH2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
364345Real GDP growth (IMF WEO)USA20242.79 percent changesupportingNGDP_RPCH2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
411082US 10-year Treasury yieldUSA2026-10-015.24 percentsupportingDGS102026-10-05 00:04 UTC
411081US 10-year Treasury yieldUSA2026-09-305.29 percentsupportingDGS102026-10-05 00:04 UTC
411205US Department of Energy contract obligationsUSA2025-10-0155.14B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:doe-contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
272268US Department of Energy contract obligationsUSA2024-10-0148.55B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:doe-contracts2026-09-07 20:00 UTC
410816US average hourly earnings, all private employeesUSA2026-09-0137.81 US dollars per hourcounterCES05000000032026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410815US average hourly earnings, all private employeesUSA2026-08-0137.76 US dollars per hourcounterCES05000000032026-10-05 00:03 UTC
409148US consumer price index, all itemsUSA2026-08-01334.13 index 1982-1984=100counterCPIAUCSL2026-09-14 00:04 UTC
167372US consumer price index, all itemsUSA2026-07-01332.81 index 1982-1984=100counterCPIAUCSL2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
411216US federal contract obligationsUSA2025-10-01729.56B US dollarssupportingspending_over_time:contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
411215US federal contract obligationsUSA2024-10-01778.53B US dollarssupportingspending_over_time:contracts2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
410817US federal funds effective rateUSA2026-09-013.75 percentcounterFEDFUNDS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
169072US federal funds effective rateUSA2026-08-013.63 percentcounterFEDFUNDS2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
411217US federal heavy and civil engineering construction contract obligationsUSA2025-10-0116.16B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:heavy-civil-construction2026-10-05 00:07 UTC
410597US federal heavy and civil engineering construction contract obligationsUSA2024-10-0114.12B US dollarscounterspending_over_time:heavy-civil-construction2026-09-28 00:08 UTC
410852US nonfarm payroll employmentUSA2026-09-01159,044 thousands of personscounterPAYEMS2026-10-05 00:04 UTC
410851US nonfarm payroll employmentUSA2026-08-01159,015 thousands of personscounterPAYEMS2026-10-05 00:04 UTC
410774US real GDPUSA2026-04-0124,408.01 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual ratecounterNIPA/T10106/A191RX2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
410773US real GDPUSA202624,274.38 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual ratecounterNIPA/T10106/A191RX2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
410752US real private fixed investmentUSA2026-04-014,645.79 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual ratecounterNIPA/T10106/A007RX2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
410751US real private fixed investmentUSA20264,560.29 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual ratecounterNIPA/T10106/A007RX2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
410392US total business inventoriesUSA2026-07-012.76M millions of dollarscounterBUSINV2026-09-21 00:04 UTC
410391US total business inventoriesUSA2026-06-012.74M millions of dollarscounterBUSINV2026-09-21 00:04 UTC
411088US unemployment rateUSA2026-09-014.2 percentcounterUNRATE2026-10-05 00:04 UTC
213832US unemployment rateUSA2026-08-014.1 percentcounterUNRATE2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2025-10-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.240207,
    "value": -118128688748.14001,
    "observation_ids": [
      411204,
      411203
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 411204,
    "value": 373650385491.01,
    "period": "2025-10-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "f33c3a0a-6d95-4b5a-9bc8-4547e0a959b9",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US Department of Defense contract obligations",
    "slug": "us-dod-contract-obligations",
    "unit": "US dollars",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "annual",
    "category_id": "3f71939e-fa36-4d46-99a2-703ce2a7b9ab",
    "category_name": "Economy & Capital",
    "category_slug": "economy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 411203,
      "value": 491779074239.15,
      "period": "2024-10-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 272240,
      "value": 274198295606.97,
      "period": "2014-10-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 118128688748.14001,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": true,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": null,
    "largest_in_window": true,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 17
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.595,
    "breadth": 0.3043,
    "surprise": 0.9768,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.7964,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.3043,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Consumer price inflation (IMF WEO)",
        "slug": "imf-inflation",
        "unit": "percent change",
        "change": -0.222604,
        "latest": {
          "id": 356291,
          "value": 2.729506,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 356290,
          "value": 2.95211,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "1e18548a-6c31-401b-a001-a3970c8cf813",
        "change_pct": -0.075405,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Current account balance (IMF WEO)",
        "slug": "imf-current-account-balance",
        "unit": "percent of GDP",
        "change": -0.708905,
        "latest": {
          "id": 342513,
          "value": -4.045665,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 342512,
          "value": -3.33676,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "025362e9-07fa-4ead-bd6d-b7ebe14aab52",
        "change_pct": -0.212453,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "GDP per person, constant 2015 US$",
        "slug": "gdp-per-person",
        "unit": "constant 2015 US$ per person",
        "change": 1089.10148,
        "latest": {
          "id": 49154,
          "value": 67945.6146497427,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 49155,
          "value": 66856.5131698371,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "3bd181ab-ad4f-4d1f-b404-0759f53e7053",
        "change_pct": 0.01629,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "General government gross debt (IMF WEO)",
        "slug": "imf-government-gross-debt",
        "unit": "percent of GDP",
        "change": 1.616685,
        "latest": {
          "id": 348353,
          "value": 123.886351,
          "period": "2025-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 348352,
          "value": 122.269666,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "b6142a59-5c69-4bdd-a234-05161d215673",
        "change_pct": 0.013222,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Gross capital formation as share of GDP",
        "slug": "gross-capital-formation-share",
        "unit": "percent of GDP",
        "change": -0.037546,
        "latest": {
          "id": 60180,
          "value": 21.5325967668865,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 60181,
          "value": 21.5701430454153,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "82a89136-2f44-4cd4-b53e-1516ab3edbb6",
        "change_pct": -0.001741,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Labor hours per 100 gallons of gasoline",
        "slug": "labor-hours-per-100-gallons-gasoline",
        "unit": "hours",
        "change": 0.77,
        "latest": {
          "id": 411232,
          "value": 11.517,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 411231,
          "value": 10.747,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "lower_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "505c96a1-c55d-4042-beaf-d63e5a71a9d1",
        "change_pct": 0.071648,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Labor hours per CPI basket, indexed to 2007",
        "slug": "labor-hours-cpi-basket-indexed",
        "unit": "hours per 2007 hour-basket",
        "change": 0.0007,
        "latest": {
          "id": 411229,
          "value": 0.8923,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 411228,
          "value": 0.8916,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "lower_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "26090d82-eb1a-4f52-b3d3-9e6c055bf386",
        "change_pct": 0.000785,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Labor hours per MWh of residential electricity",
        "slug": "labor-hours-per-mwh-residential",
        "unit": "hours",
        "change": -0.04,
        "latest": {
          "id": 411233,
          "value": 4.879,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 404796,
          "value": 4.919,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "lower_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "0d9e7a8c-c5b8-4155-ac5d-6c74f1cdfc26",
        "change_pct": -0.008132,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Labour productivity, GDP per hour worked (OECD)",
        "slug": "oecd-labour-productivity",
        "unit": "US dollars per hour, current prices and PPPs",
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      {
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        "name": "US average hourly earnings, all private employees",
        "slug": "us-average-hourly-earnings",
        "unit": "US dollars per hour",
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "change": 133.628,
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      {
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      {
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        "name": "US unemployment rate",
        "slug": "us-unemployment-rate",
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    ],
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  "history": {
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    "change_count": 18,
    "first_period": "2007-10-01"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
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  "surprise": {
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    "scale_method": "mad",
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    "abs_change_percentile": 1
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  "geography": {
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    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
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    "long_window": 10,
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    "second_difference_z": -6.8548,
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  },
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    {
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    },
    {
      "id": 410570,
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      "period": "2009-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 272236,
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      "period": "2010-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411196,
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      "period": "2011-10-01"
    },
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    },
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      "period": "2013-10-01"
    },
    {
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      "period": "2014-10-01"
    },
    {
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      "period": "2015-10-01"
    },
    {
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    {
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    {
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    },
    {
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      "period": "2019-10-01"
    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "id": 411200,
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      "period": "2021-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411201,
      "value": 456947716466.26,
      "period": "2022-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411202,
      "value": 445758749408.2,
      "period": "2023-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411203,
      "value": 491779074239.15,
      "period": "2024-10-01"
    },
    {
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      "value": 373650385491.01,
      "period": "2025-10-01"
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  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

49 observations, 24 metrics, relevance score row 493 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).