US industrial production index · United States · as of 2026-09-01
US industrial production index (United States) rose 0.66% in 2026-09-01
US industrial production index for United States was 103.95 index 2017=100 in 2026-09-01, up 0.6842 index 2017=100 (+0.66%) from 103.27 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 91st percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1919-01-01.
What changed
US industrial production index
103.95index 2017=100+0.66%
- Latest
- 103.95 in 2026-09-01 obs 415546
- Previous
- 103.27 in 2026-08-01 obs 415545
- Change
- +0.6842 index 2017=100
- History
- 1293 observations, 1919-01-01 to 2026-09-01
How unusual
Against its own history
- Robust z
- 1.99
- Change percentile
- 91st of 1291 earlier absolute changes
- Value percentile
- 100th of earlier values
- Median change
- 0.0823 (scale 0.303, mad)
- Second difference
- 0.6184 (z 2.31)
- Slope divergence
- 0.28
- Rarity
- last larger move 5 periods ago (2026-04-01)
Confidence and status
Record
- Relevance
- 0.301
- Confidence
- 76%
- Status
- published
- Discovered
- 2026-10-19 00:21 UTC
- Expires
- 2026-11-18 00:21 UTC
- Model
- relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
- Validation
- passed
- Causal level
- candidate
Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.
Why now
Relevance components
Derived
Statistical surprise0.62 × 0.18 = 0.112
Acceleration0.38 × 0.12 = 0.046
Breadth0.89 × 0.16 = 0.142
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.01 × 0.08 = 0.001
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.301
- Statistical surprise: the latest change of +0.6842 index 2017=100 is 2.0 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (1291 earlier changes), at the 91st percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.62, weight 0.18, contribution 0.112.
- Acceleration: second-difference z 2.3; short-versus-long slope divergence 0.28. Component 0.38, weight 0.12, contribution 0.046.
- Breadth: 8 of 9 related metrics (same category, Production) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 1 moved the other way. Component 0.89, weight 0.16, contribution 0.142.
- Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
- Historical rarity: the last larger move was 5 periods ago, in 2026-04-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.01, weight 0.08, contribution 0.001.
- Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
- Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
- Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.
Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.301, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.
Explanation
What changed and how unusual it is
Derived
What changed. The latest current observation for US industrial production index, United States, is 103.95 index 2017=100 for 2026-09-01 (obs 415546). The previous period, 2026-08-01, recorded 103.27 index 2017=100 (obs 415545). The change is +0.6842 index 2017=100, or +0.66%. Under the metric's direction rule (higher is better) that reads as improving.
How unusual. Against the 1291 earlier monthly changes since 1919-01-01, the median change is +0.0823 index 2017=100 and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 0.303, giving a robust z-score of 2.0. The absolute change sits at the 91st percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +0.8432 index 2017=100 in 2026-04-01 (obs 415541, obs 410403), 5 periods ago.
Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +0.6184 index 2017=100, a robust z of 2.3 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +0.375 index 2017=100 per period against +0.291 over the last 10, a divergence of 0.28 change-scale units.
Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.
AI explanation
Modeled interpretation
Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 84275fa2-83a9-4b5a-997d-de3667a7c0fd. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.
Explanation
The data are consistent with a rise in the observed US industrial production index [observation:415546] from the prior month value [observation:415545]. Related observed series include capacity utilization at 76.8504 percent [observation:415537] and manufacturing production at 99.4361 [observation:415558].
Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)
The data are consistent with normal month-to-month variation around the recent level.
Why now
The September 2026 observation for the index became available.
What to watch
Subsequent readings of the US industrial production index [observation:415546], capacity utilization [observation:415537], and manufacturing employment [observation:410821].
Affected systems
Supporting metrics
| Metric | Latest | Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate physical economy pulsecategory | 18.61 percent change yoy (2026-09-03) | +1.73 (+10.25%) | obs 414584, obs 410383 |
| Corporate pulse: ai infrastructure capex growthcategory | 78.55 percent change yoy (2026-09-03) | +3.81 (+5.10%) | obs 420642, obs 410499 |
| Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growthcategory | 18.2 percent change yoy (2026-09-03) | +5 (+37.88%) | obs 420643, obs 410500 |
| Industrial production index (OECD)category | 102 index 2015=100 (2026-07-01) | +0.2051 (+0.20%) | obs 388399, obs 388398 |
| US capacity utilizationcategory | 76.85 percent of capacity (2026-09-01) | +0.432 (+0.57%) | obs 415537, obs 415536 |
| US manufacturing employmentcategory | 12,652 thousands of persons (2026-09-01) | +9 (+0.07%) | obs 410821, obs 410820 |
| US manufacturing production indexcategory | 99.44 index 2017=100 (2026-09-01) | +0.2585 (+0.26%) | obs 415558, obs 415557 |
| US nonfarm business labor productivitycategory | 120.02 index 2017=100 (2026-04-01) | +0.423 (+0.35%) | obs 240319, obs 240320 |
No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.
Counter-evidence
What points the other way
1 related metric moved the other way as of their latest periods:
- Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growth: -5.19 percent change yoy (-14.74%) to 30.02 percent change yoy in 2026-06-30 (obs 409138, obs 404027)
2 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.
Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.
- Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growth moved against this insight.
What to watch
Measurable indicators
- The next US industrial production index observation (2026-10-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of +0.0823 index 2017=100, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
- Corporate physical economy pulse, currently 18.61 percent change yoy in 2026-09-03 (obs 414584): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- Corporate pulse: ai infrastructure capex growth, currently 78.55 percent change yoy in 2026-09-03 (obs 420642): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growth, currently 18.2 percent change yoy in 2026-09-03 (obs 420643): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- Revisions: a revised 2026-09-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 415546) and trigger a rescore.
- Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence
Every number links here
Observed
| Observation | Metric | Period | Value | Role | Series | Ingested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 415546 | US industrial production indexUSA | 2026-09-01 | 103.95 index 2017=100 | primary | INDPRO | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 415545 | US industrial production indexUSA | 2026-08-01 | 103.27 index 2017=100 | primary | INDPRO | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 415541 | US industrial production indexUSA | 2026-04-01 | 102.58 index 2017=100 | context | INDPRO | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 410403 | US industrial production indexUSA | 2026-03-01 | 101.73 index 2017=100 | context | INDPRO | 2026-09-21 00:04 UTC |
| 171080 | US industrial production indexUSA | 2018-09-01 | 104.1 index 2017=100 | context | INDPRO | 2026-09-07 09:53 UTC |
| 170046 | US industrial production indexUSA | 1932-07-01 | 3.69 index 2017=100 | context | INDPRO | 2026-09-07 09:53 UTC |
| 414584 | Corporate physical economy pulseUSA | 2026-09-03 | 18.61 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-physical-economy-pulse@1.0 | 2026-10-12 00:10 UTC |
| 410383 | Corporate physical economy pulseUSA | 2026-08-02 | 16.88 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-physical-economy-pulse@1.0 | 2026-09-14 00:11 UTC |
| 420642 | Corporate pulse: ai infrastructure capex growthUSA | 2026-09-03 | 78.55 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-pulse-ai-infrastructure@1.0 | 2026-10-19 00:20 UTC |
| 410499 | Corporate pulse: ai infrastructure capex growthUSA | 2026-08-02 | 74.74 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-pulse-ai-infrastructure@1.0 | 2026-09-21 00:10 UTC |
| 409137 | Corporate pulse: global logistics capex growthUSA | 2026-06-30 | -5.28 percent change yoy | context | corporate-pulse-global-logistics@1.0 | 2026-09-13 00:17 UTC |
| 409138 | Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growthUSA | 2026-06-30 | 30.02 percent change yoy | counter | corporate-pulse-grid-investment@1.0 | 2026-09-13 00:17 UTC |
| 404027 | Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growthUSA | 2025-12-31 | 35.21 percent change yoy | counter | corporate-pulse-grid-investment@1.0 | 2026-09-07 22:04 UTC |
| 409139 | Corporate pulse: heavy industry capex growthUSA | 2026-08-02 | -16.5 percent change yoy | context | corporate-pulse-heavy-industry@1.0 | 2026-09-13 00:17 UTC |
| 420643 | Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growthUSA | 2026-09-03 | 18.2 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-pulse-semiconductor-capacity@1.0 | 2026-10-19 00:20 UTC |
| 410500 | Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growthUSA | 2026-08-02 | 13.2 percent change yoy | supporting | corporate-pulse-semiconductor-capacity@1.0 | 2026-09-21 00:10 UTC |
| 388399 | Industrial production index (OECD)USA | 2026-07-01 | 102 index 2015=100 | supporting | OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_INDSERV/.M.PRVM.IX.BTE.Y._Z._Z.N | 2026-09-07 20:00 UTC |
| 388398 | Industrial production index (OECD)USA | 2026-06-01 | 101.8 index 2015=100 | supporting | OECD.SDD.STES,DSD_STES@DF_INDSERV/.M.PRVM.IX.BTE.Y._Z._Z.N | 2026-09-07 20:00 UTC |
| 415537 | US capacity utilizationUSA | 2026-09-01 | 76.85 percent of capacity | supporting | TCU | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 415536 | US capacity utilizationUSA | 2026-08-01 | 76.42 percent of capacity | supporting | TCU | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 410821 | US manufacturing employmentUSA | 2026-09-01 | 12,652 thousands of persons | supporting | MANEMP | 2026-10-05 00:03 UTC |
| 410820 | US manufacturing employmentUSA | 2026-08-01 | 12,643 thousands of persons | supporting | MANEMP | 2026-10-05 00:03 UTC |
| 415558 | US manufacturing production indexUSA | 2026-09-01 | 99.44 index 2017=100 | supporting | IPMAN | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 415557 | US manufacturing production indexUSA | 2026-08-01 | 99.18 index 2017=100 | supporting | IPMAN | 2026-10-19 00:14 UTC |
| 240319 | US nonfarm business labor productivityUSA | 2026-04-01 | 120.02 index 2017=100 | supporting | PRS85006093 | 2026-09-07 09:54 UTC |
| 240320 | US nonfarm business labor productivityUSA | 2026 | 119.59 index 2017=100 | supporting | PRS85006093 | 2026-09-07 09:54 UTC |
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
"as_of": "2026-09-01",
"change": {
"pct": 0.006626,
"value": 0.6842,
"observation_ids": [
415546,
415545
]
},
"latest": {
"id": 415546,
"value": 103.9506,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"metric": {
"id": "9ca20650-81dd-4c8e-8142-44235bafb6c7",
"kind": "observed",
"name": "US industrial production index",
"slug": "us-industrial-production",
"unit": "index 2017=100",
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "monthly",
"category_id": "036431ec-c27f-4b1e-83ee-8cae523e3b0f",
"category_name": "Production",
"category_slug": "production",
"geography_default": "USA",
"frequency_normalised": "monthly"
},
"rarity": {
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"value": 104.1004,
"period": "2018-09-01"
},
"prior_min": {
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"value": 3.6891,
"period": "1932-07-01"
},
"abs_change": 0.6842,
"all_time_low": false,
"largest_ever": false,
"window_years": 20,
"all_time_high": false,
"window_periods": 240,
"last_larger_move": {
"change": 0.8432,
"period": "2026-04-01",
"observation_ids": [
415541,
410403
]
},
"largest_in_window": false,
"periods_since_larger_move": 5
},
"scores": {
"rarity": 0.0146,
"breadth": 0.8889,
"surprise": 0.6213,
"centrality": 0,
"acceleration": 0.3831,
"forecast_impact": 0,
"public_attention": 0,
"bottleneck_impact": 0
},
"breadth": {
"via": "category",
"share": 0.8889,
"related": [
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Corporate physical economy pulse",
"slug": "corporate-physical-economy-pulse",
"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": 1.73,
"latest": {
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},
"previous": {
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},
"direction": "contextual",
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"metric_id": "69e06f2b-e5f0-4b7d-b799-fe787c771c26",
"change_pct": 0.102488,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
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"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": 3.81,
"latest": {
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},
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"value": 74.74,
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},
"direction": "contextual",
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"change_pct": 0.050977,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Corporate pulse: global logistics capex growth",
"slug": "corporate-pulse-global-logistics",
"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": null,
"latest": {
"id": 409137,
"value": -5.28,
"period": "2026-06-30"
},
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
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"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growth",
"slug": "corporate-pulse-grid-investment",
"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": -5.19,
"latest": {
"id": 409138,
"value": 30.02,
"period": "2026-06-30"
},
"previous": {
"id": 404027,
"value": 35.21,
"period": "2025-12-31"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "quarterly",
"metric_id": "50df67cb-1003-412a-b9de-16efe29656d6",
"change_pct": -0.147401,
"consistent": false,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Corporate pulse: heavy industry capex growth",
"slug": "corporate-pulse-heavy-industry",
"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": null,
"latest": {
"id": 409139,
"value": -16.5,
"period": "2026-08-02"
},
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "quarterly",
"metric_id": "3cf73e61-9e27-4cfb-a608-fb8fdac5ef2a",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growth",
"slug": "corporate-pulse-semiconductor-capacity",
"unit": "percent change yoy",
"change": 5,
"latest": {
"id": 420643,
"value": 18.2,
"period": "2026-09-03"
},
"previous": {
"id": 410500,
"value": 13.2,
"period": "2026-08-02"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "quarterly",
"metric_id": "5c164163-8282-4506-8f55-b4f10b650b59",
"change_pct": 0.378788,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Industrial production index (OECD)",
"slug": "oecd-industrial-production",
"unit": "index 2015=100",
"change": 0.2051,
"latest": {
"id": 388399,
"value": 102.0025,
"period": "2026-07-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 388398,
"value": 101.7974,
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},
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "34c39638-3945-446a-b2a6-29b7bedc82c3",
"change_pct": 0.002015,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US capacity utilization",
"slug": "us-capacity-utilization",
"unit": "percent of capacity",
"change": 0.432,
"latest": {
"id": 415537,
"value": 76.8504,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 415536,
"value": 76.4184,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "d627e548-31da-466e-b623-ce63fc8acb5e",
"change_pct": 0.005653,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US manufacturing employment",
"slug": "us-manufacturing-employment",
"unit": "thousands of persons",
"change": 9,
"latest": {
"id": 410821,
"value": 12652,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 410820,
"value": 12643,
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},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "7891edfb-0446-4f70-a3d3-a24a580643ad",
"change_pct": 0.000712,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US manufacturing production index",
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"change": 0.2585,
"latest": {
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"value": 99.4361,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 415557,
"value": 99.1776,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "d5c2ab9b-1122-4f18-89e6-36e8e788be60",
"change_pct": 0.002606,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US nonfarm business labor productivity",
"slug": "us-nonfarm-labor-productivity",
"unit": "index 2017=100",
"change": 0.423,
"latest": {
"id": 240319,
"value": 120.017,
"period": "2026-04-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 240320,
"value": 119.594,
"period": "2026-01-01"
},
"direction": "higher_better",
"frequency": "quarterly",
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"change_pct": 0.003537,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
}
],
"opposite": 1,
"comparable": 9,
"consistent": 8
},
"history": {
"count": 1293,
"last_period": "2026-09-01",
"change_count": 1292,
"first_period": "1919-01-01"
},
"version": "features_v1",
"previous": {
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"value": 103.2664,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"surprise": {
"note": null,
"scale": 0.303043,
"robust_z": 1.9862,
"mad_change": 0.2044,
"change_count": 1291,
"scale_method": "mad",
"median_change": 0.0823,
"value_percentile": 0.9961,
"abs_change_percentile": 0.9125
},
"geography": {
"id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
"code": "USA",
"name": "United States"
},
"centrality": {
"value": 0,
"source": "none",
"entity_ids": [],
"entity_slugs": []
},
"acceleration": {
"note": null,
"long_slope": 0.29095,
"long_window": 10,
"short_slope": 0.375,
"short_window": 3,
"slope_divergence": 0.2774,
"second_difference": 0.6184,
"second_difference_z": 2.3078,
"long_observation_ids": [
171167,
171168,
171169,
410403,
415541,
415542,
415543,
415544,
415545,
415546
],
"short_observation_ids": [
415544,
415545,
415546
]
},
"series_window": [
{
"id": 171137,
"value": 100.1196,
"period": "2023-06-01"
},
{
"id": 171138,
"value": 100.9067,
"period": "2023-07-01"
},
{
"id": 171139,
"value": 100.8393,
"period": "2023-08-01"
},
{
"id": 171140,
"value": 101.0211,
"period": "2023-09-01"
},
{
"id": 171141,
"value": 100.4689,
"period": "2023-10-01"
},
{
"id": 171142,
"value": 100.8639,
"period": "2023-11-01"
},
{
"id": 171143,
"value": 100.6031,
"period": "2023-12-01"
},
{
"id": 171144,
"value": 99.2223,
"period": "2024-01-01"
},
{
"id": 171145,
"value": 100.285,
"period": "2024-02-01"
},
{
"id": 171146,
"value": 100.4575,
"period": "2024-03-01"
},
{
"id": 171147,
"value": 100.2434,
"period": "2024-04-01"
},
{
"id": 171148,
"value": 100.863,
"period": "2024-05-01"
},
{
"id": 171149,
"value": 100.894,
"period": "2024-06-01"
},
{
"id": 171150,
"value": 99.9757,
"period": "2024-07-01"
},
{
"id": 171151,
"value": 100.4309,
"period": "2024-08-01"
},
{
"id": 171152,
"value": 99.8084,
"period": "2024-09-01"
},
{
"id": 171153,
"value": 99.4695,
"period": "2024-10-01"
},
{
"id": 171154,
"value": 99.2925,
"period": "2024-11-01"
},
{
"id": 171155,
"value": 100.3273,
"period": "2024-12-01"
},
{
"id": 171156,
"value": 100.0647,
"period": "2025-01-01"
},
{
"id": 171157,
"value": 101.0993,
"period": "2025-02-01"
},
{
"id": 171158,
"value": 101.0404,
"period": "2025-03-01"
},
{
"id": 171159,
"value": 101.1279,
"period": "2025-04-01"
},
{
"id": 171160,
"value": 100.9655,
"period": "2025-05-01"
},
{
"id": 171161,
"value": 101.4785,
"period": "2025-06-01"
},
{
"id": 171162,
"value": 101.894,
"period": "2025-07-01"
},
{
"id": 171163,
"value": 101.6247,
"period": "2025-08-01"
},
{
"id": 171164,
"value": 101.668,
"period": "2025-09-01"
},
{
"id": 171165,
"value": 101.2195,
"period": "2025-10-01"
},
{
"id": 171166,
"value": 101.0344,
"period": "2025-11-01"
},
{
"id": 171167,
"value": 101.4941,
"period": "2025-12-01"
},
{
"id": 171168,
"value": 101.0388,
"period": "2026-01-01"
},
{
"id": 171169,
"value": 101.9053,
"period": "2026-02-01"
},
{
"id": 410403,
"value": 101.7336,
"period": "2026-03-01"
},
{
"id": 415541,
"value": 102.5768,
"period": "2026-04-01"
},
{
"id": 415542,
"value": 102.7232,
"period": "2026-05-01"
},
{
"id": 415543,
"value": 102.961,
"period": "2026-06-01"
},
{
"id": 415544,
"value": 103.2006,
"period": "2026-07-01"
},
{
"id": 415545,
"value": 103.2664,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
{
"id": 415546,
"value": 103.9506,
"period": "2026-09-01"
}
],
"forecast_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"public_attention": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"bottleneck_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
}
}Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.