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Relationship, enables

Electricity system enables Economic output

The stored status is what a reviewer approved. The level below it is what the overlapping data support; the two are shown side by side and only a human moves the status.

Stored statusHypothesizedEvidence level (latest analysis)Level 0: No association found
The latest analysis supports only level 0 from the data alone, below the stored status. The stored status rests on the mechanism and evidence listed below, which statistics on two world series cannot confirm or remove.

Mechanism, evidence, reviewer judgements

The edge as stored

Electricity system enables Economic output2 evidenceHypothesized

Economic output depends on Electricity system.

Mechanism

Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows productive uses (lighting, machinery, refrigeration, communications) that raise output per person. The catalog carries both series; no causal study is attached.

Status
hypothesized
Reviewer confidence
0.60
Stated strength
not stated
Lag
not stated
Version
curated_seed_v1
Reviewed
2026-09-07

Confidence and strength are curated judgements recorded with the edge, not measured quantities.

Entity pages: Electricity system, Economic output.

Level 0 evidence, computed 2026-09-07 22:15 UTC

Correlation

DerivedLevel 0: No association found

Population with access to electricity against GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, geography WLD, 27 overlapping years (1998 to 2024). Primary statistics on diff (first differences, because at least one series has a unit root; levels are shown for comparison).

Pearson r (diff)

0.196

p 0.3370

Spearman rho (diff)

0.142

p 0.4893

Pearson r (levels)

0.981

two trending series correlate in levels by construction

Rolling r

0.349

min -0.114, max 0.611, 4 sign changes

Population with access to electricity and GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, each scaled to its own range over 1998 to 2024Aligned series, scaled 0 to 1 over the overlap00.51Population with access to electricity, 1998: 73.201Population with access to electricity, 1999: 74.508Population with access to electricity, 2000: 78.225Population with access to electricity, 2001: 78.719Population with access to electricity, 2002: 79.104Population with access to electricity, 2003: 79.968Population with access to electricity, 2004: 79.956Population with access to electricity, 2005: 80.705Population with access to electricity, 2006: 81.357Population with access to electricity, 2007: 81.975Population with access to electricity, 2008: 82.671Population with access to electricity, 2009: 82.869Population with access to electricity, 2010: 83.450Population with access to electricity, 2011: 84.509Population with access to electricity, 2012: 84.939Population with access to electricity, 2013: 85.714Population with access to electricity, 2014: 86.199Population with access to electricity, 2015: 86.927Population with access to electricity, 2016: 88.108Population with access to electricity, 2017: 88.936Population with access to electricity, 2018: 89.801Population with access to electricity, 2019: 90.109Population with access to electricity, 2020: 90.400Population with access to electricity, 2021: 91.339Population with access to electricity, 2022: 91.282Population with access to electricity, 2023: 91.603Population with access to electricity, 2024: 91.926GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 1998: 7478.784GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 1999: 7638.929GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2000: 7879.618GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2001: 7932.442GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2002: 8010.647GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2003: 8151.037GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2004: 8408.565GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2005: 8639.359GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2006: 8913.157GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2007: 9191.474GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2008: 9265.527GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2009: 9028.221GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2010: 9322.218GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2011: 9514.520GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2012: 9653.627GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2013: 9811.026GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2014: 10000.583GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2015: 10191.975GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2016: 10355.045GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2017: 10591.555GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2018: 10822.575GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2019: 10996.910GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2020: 10575.219GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2021: 11167.604GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2022: 11452.020GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2023: 11670.822GDP per person, constant 2015 US$, 2024: 11894.252Population with access to electricGDP per person, constant 2015 US$Rolling correlation, window 8 (on the primary transform)-101rolling r ending 2006: 0.25rolling r ending 2007: 0.20rolling r ending 2008: -0.11rolling r ending 2009: 0.30rolling r ending 2010: 0.28rolling r ending 2011: 0.30rolling r ending 2012: 0.61rolling r ending 2013: 0.59rolling r ending 2014: 0.56rolling r ending 2015: 0.60rolling r ending 2016: 0.53rolling r ending 2017: -0.11rolling r ending 2018: 0.23rolling r ending 2019: 0.26rolling r ending 2020: 0.52rolling r ending 2021: 0.58rolling r ending 2022: 0.34rolling r ending 2023: 0.32rolling r ending 2024: 0.3919982004201120182024
  • no significant association on diff (n 27)
  • no one-way predictive lead/lag

Cross-correlation scan and Granger-style tests

Lead and lag

Cross-correlation by lag between Population with access to electricity and GDP per person, constant 2015 US$; positive lag means Population with access to electricity leadsCross-correlation by lag (positive lag: Population with access to el leads)-1-0.500.51lag -5: r -0.04 (n 21)-5lag -4: r 0.01 (n 22)-4lag -3: r 0.09 (n 23)-3lag -2: r -0.01 (n 24)-2lag -1: r -0.13 (n 25)-1lag 0: r 0.20 (n 26)0lag 1: r -0.10 (n 25)+1lag 2: r -0.23 (n 24), strongest+2lag 3: r -0.10 (n 23)+3lag 4: r 0.00 (n 22)+4lag 5: r 0.21 (n 21)+5lag in periods; strongest at +2 (r -0.23), same period r 0.20
DirectionTestedlag 1 plag 2 plag 3 plag 4 plag 5 pmin pReading
Population with access to electricity helps predict GDP per person, constant 2015 US$yes0.8010.6000.7430.8460.8270.6000no predictive information beyond own past
GDP per person, constant 2015 US$ helps predict Population with access to electricityyes0.4650.4620.8130.5850.7190.4620no predictive information beyond own past

Granger-style F-tests on the primary transform: whether lagged values of one series improve a regression of the other on its own lags. Predictive information is not causation; a common driver that moves one series earlier produces the same pattern.

Reading: neither series adds predictive information about the other beyond its own past.

Cointegration
no (p 0.058)
Changepoints
Population with ac: 1, GDP per person, co: 1
ADF p (levels)
0.603, 0.987
Service
causal-service/0.1.0

Not computed

Causal estimate

A causal estimate is attempted only for edges at mechanism supported or above: without a documented mechanism there is no graph to adjust on, and a regression coefficient alone would be pattern discovery dressed as a cause.

Alternative explanations for the association

What else could explain it

  • Both series trend with world development; the primary statistics use first differences to limit that, not remove it.
  • A common driver (income, urbanisation, technology) can move both series with different lags and produce a lead/lag pattern without any direct effect.
  • World aggregates hide country composition: a change in which countries report can move a world series.
  • Reverse direction: Economic output may act on Electricity system.
  • Both series are revised by their source; the analysis uses the current vintage, not the vintage available at the time.

What each rung means

Levels

  1. Level 0: No association found

    the overlapping data show no significant association.

  2. Level 1: Correlation only

    statistically associated in the overlapping periods; no direction, no mechanism.

  3. Level 2: Predictive lead/lag

    one series historically contains predictive information about the other.

  4. Level 3: Mechanism supported

    a documented physical, economic or institutional mechanism with cited evidence.

  5. Level 4: Causally supported

    a backdoor-adjusted estimate that survived refutation, on stated assumptions.

  6. Level 5: Established relation

    follows from engineering, accounting or scientific structure.

Every stored run, newest first

Analysis history

  • 2026-09-07 22:15 correlate level 0 n 27 causal-service/0.1.0