US total public debt outstanding · United States · as of 2026-09-03

US total public debt outstanding (United States) fell 0.04% in 2026-09-03, a move against the usual direction

US total public debt outstanding for United States was 40,102,964,278,586 US dollars in 2026-09-03, down 14,080,848,486 US dollars (-0.04%) from 40,117,045,127,073 in 2026-09-02; that change ranks in the 80th percentile of daily changes recorded since 1993-04-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page

What changed

US total public debt outstanding

40.1TUS dollars-0.04%

Latest: 40.1T in 2026-09-03 obs 254416
Previous: 40.12T in 2026-09-02 obs 254417
Change: -14.08B US dollars
History: 8386 observations, 1993-04-01 to 2026-09-03

How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z: -3.20
Change percentile: 80th of 8384 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile: 100th of earlier values
Median change: 870.24M (scale 4.67B, mad)
Second difference: -18.66B (z -2.02)
Slope divergence: -3.11
Rarity: last larger move 2 periods ago (2026-09-01)

Confidence and status

Record

Relevance: 0.335
Confidence: 68%
Status: published
Discovered: 2026-09-07 10:05 UTC
Expires: 2026-10-07 10:05 UTC
Model: relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation: passed
Causal level: candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived

Statistical surprise0.80 × 0.18 = 0.144

Acceleration0.70 × 0.12 = 0.084

Breadth0.67 × 0.16 = 0.107

Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000

Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14

Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10

Historical rarity0.00 × 0.08 = 0.000

Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04

Relevance0.335

Statistical surprise: the latest change of -14,080,848,486 US dollars is -3.2 robust standard deviations from the median daily change (8384 earlier changes), at the 80th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.80, weight 0.18, contribution 0.144.
Acceleration: second-difference z -2.0; short-versus-long slope divergence -3.11. Component 0.70, weight 0.12, contribution 0.084.
Breadth: 2 of 3 related metrics (same category, Resilience) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 1 moved the other way. Component 0.67, weight 0.16, contribution 0.107.
Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
Historical rarity: the last larger move was 2 periods ago, in 2026-09-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.00, weight 0.08, contribution 0.000.
Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.335, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US total public debt outstanding, United States, is 40,102,964,278,586 US dollars for 2026-09-03 (obs 254416). The previous period, 2026-09-02, recorded 40,117,045,127,073 US dollars (obs 254417). The change is -14,080,848,486 US dollars, or -0.04%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 8384 earlier daily changes since 1993-04-01, the median change is +870,241,633 US dollars and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 4,669,672,070, giving a robust z-score of -3.2. The absolute change sits at the 80th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was -63,176,478,428 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 254418, obs 254419), 2 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -18,661,382,353 US dollars, a robust z of -2.0 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -4,750,157,310 US dollars per period against +9,785,750,944 over the last 10, a divergence of -3.11 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled

Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 335ae998-ba8e-412f-8b29-8ae32b5c7fca. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

The data are consistent with a decline in the metric from 40117045127072.57 US dollars on 2026-09-02 [observation:254417] to 40102964278586.1 US dollars on 2026-09-03 [observation:254416].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The reading may reflect temporary accounting adjustments rather than a sustained change.

Why now

The daily observation for 2026-09-03 was recorded and compared with the preceding value.

What to watch

Next daily readings of US total public debt outstanding [observation:254416]

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

Metric	Latest	Change	Evidence
US federal interest expense, monthlycategory	97.77B US dollars (2026-08-01)	-19.81B (-16.84%)	obs 263151, obs 263150
US federal receipts, monthlycategory	334.01B US dollars (2026-07-01)	-161.75B (-32.63%)	obs 263459, obs 263458

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

1 related metric moved the other way as of their latest periods:

US federal outlays, monthly: +150,250,993,022 US dollars (+24.39%) to 766,317,750,177 US dollars in 2026-07-01 (obs 263305, obs 263304)

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

US federal outlays, monthly moved against this insight.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

The next US total public debt outstanding observation (2026-09-04): a change no larger than the median daily change of +870,241,633 US dollars, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
US federal interest expense, monthly, currently 97,768,569,546 US dollars in 2026-08-01 (obs 263151): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
US federal receipts, monthly, currently 334,009,875,556 US dollars in 2026-07-01 (obs 263459): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
Revisions: a revised 2026-09-03 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 254416) and trigger a rescore.
Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.

Evidence

Every number links here

Observed

Observation	Metric	Period	Value	Role	Series	Ingested
254416	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-09-03	40.1T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
254417	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-09-02	40.12T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
254418	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-09-01	40.11T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
254419	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-08-31	40.18T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
262801	US total public debt outstandingUSA	1993-04-01	4.23T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263151	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	97.77B US dollars	supporting	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263150	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-07-01	117.57B US dollars	supporting	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263305	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-07-01	766.32B US dollars	counter	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263304	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-06-01	616.07B US dollars	counter	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263459	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-07-01	334.01B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
263458	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-06-01	495.76B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC

Feature packet (full inputs to the score)

{
  "as_of": "2026-09-03",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.000351,
    "value": -14080848486.46875,
    "observation_ids": [
      254416,
      254417
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 254416,
    "value": 40102964278586.1,
    "period": "2026-09-03"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "b6d1b078-ad94-4c75-8005-3a444f577266",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US total public debt outstanding",
    "slug": "us-federal-debt-total",
    "unit": "US dollars",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "daily",
    "category_id": "871b8b44-f97d-469c-b707-3e0b71b10b54",
    "category_name": "Resilience",
    "category_slug": "resilience",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "daily"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 254419,
      "value": 40175641071634.14,
      "period": "2026-08-31"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 262801,
      "value": 4225873987843.44,
      "period": "1993-04-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 14080848486.46875,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 7300,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": -63176478427.84375,
      "period": "2026-09-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        254418,
        254419
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 2
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.0002,
    "breadth": 0.6667,
    "surprise": 0.8015,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.7034,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.6667,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US federal interest expense, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-interest-expense-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": -19805006561.240005,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263151,
          "value": 97768569546,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263150,
          "value": 117573576107.24,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "395ee5ea-5ca5-4508-97b9-59476d157548",
        "change_pct": -0.168448,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US federal outlays, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-outlays-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": 150250993022.20007,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263305,
          "value": 766317750177.27,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263304,
          "value": 616066757155.07,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "107653c9-ab9f-4b01-bfa9-32ede38d94b7",
        "change_pct": 0.243888,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US federal receipts, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-receipts-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": -161751606012.91003,
        "latest": {
          "id": 263459,
          "value": 334009875555.79,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 263458,
          "value": 495761481568.7,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b533f02a-9992-4f95-909f-d399abf873e1",
        "change_pct": -0.326269,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 1,
    "comparable": 3,
    "consistent": 2
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 8386,
    "last_period": "2026-09-03",
    "change_count": 8385,
    "first_period": "1993-04-01"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 254417,
    "value": 40117045127072.57,
    "period": "2026-09-02"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 4669672070.309164,
    "robust_z": -3.2017,
    "mad_change": 3149650661.209473,
    "change_count": 8384,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 870241633.495117,
    "value_percentile": 0.9995,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.804
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 9785750943.9009,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": -4750157310.097656,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -3.1128,
    "second_difference": -18661382352.742188,
    "second_difference_z": -2.0224,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      254425,
      254424,
      254423,
      254422,
      254421,
      254420,
      254419,
      254418,
      254417,
      254416
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      254418,
      254417,
      254416
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 254455,
      "value": 39412981341965.62,
      "period": "2026-07-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 254454,
      "value": 39417905469064.21,
      "period": "2026-07-13"
    },
    {
      "id": 254453,
      "value": 39470152218599.01,
      "period": "2026-07-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 254452,
      "value": 39488616467668.43,
      "period": "2026-07-15"
    },
    {
      "id": 254451,
      "value": 39518859758919.12,
      "period": "2026-07-16"
    },
    {
      "id": 254450,
      "value": 39581848442144.38,
      "period": "2026-07-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 254449,
      "value": 39588242618845.71,
      "period": "2026-07-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 254448,
      "value": 39660369665133.47,
      "period": "2026-07-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 254447,
      "value": 39635799057233.84,
      "period": "2026-07-22"
    },
    {
      "id": 254446,
      "value": 39676938407949.77,
      "period": "2026-07-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 254445,
      "value": 39692374867364.99,
      "period": "2026-07-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 254444,
      "value": 39713964053447.11,
      "period": "2026-07-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 254443,
      "value": 39797152899275.21,
      "period": "2026-07-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 254442,
      "value": 39799618642771.12,
      "period": "2026-07-29"
    },
    {
      "id": 254441,
      "value": 39841114561022.68,
      "period": "2026-07-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 254440,
      "value": 39771617162466.97,
      "period": "2026-07-31"
    },
    {
      "id": 254439,
      "value": 39739223157130.73,
      "period": "2026-08-03"
    },
    {
      "id": 254438,
      "value": 39828435390891.55,
      "period": "2026-08-04"
    },
    {
      "id": 254437,
      "value": 39829652708623.61,
      "period": "2026-08-05"
    },
    {
      "id": 254436,
      "value": 39890263441627.83,
      "period": "2026-08-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 254435,
      "value": 39885247772395.56,
      "period": "2026-08-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 254434,
      "value": 39891773994021.93,
      "period": "2026-08-10"
    },
    {
      "id": 254433,
      "value": 39941929832070.77,
      "period": "2026-08-11"
    },
    {
      "id": 254432,
      "value": 39913529319464.71,
      "period": "2026-08-12"
    },
    {
      "id": 254431,
      "value": 39934816207844.37,
      "period": "2026-08-13"
    },
    {
      "id": 254430,
      "value": 39933634466112.78,
      "period": "2026-08-14"
    },
    {
      "id": 254429,
      "value": 39986657878071.92,
      "period": "2026-08-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 254428,
      "value": 40047425768420.22,
      "period": "2026-08-18"
    },
    {
      "id": 254427,
      "value": 40012700535679.44,
      "period": "2026-08-19"
    },
    {
      "id": 254426,
      "value": 40033256786764.37,
      "period": "2026-08-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 254425,
      "value": 40032876505819.31,
      "period": "2026-08-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 254424,
      "value": 40035385103646.14,
      "period": "2026-08-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 254423,
      "value": 40098864155027.57,
      "period": "2026-08-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 254422,
      "value": 40069751423220.72,
      "period": "2026-08-26"
    },
    {
      "id": 254421,
      "value": 40077529831942.94,
      "period": "2026-08-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 254420,
      "value": 40104097482666.58,
      "period": "2026-08-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 254419,
      "value": 40175641071634.14,
      "period": "2026-08-31"
    },
    {
      "id": 254418,
      "value": 40112464593206.3,
      "period": "2026-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 254417,
      "value": 40117045127072.57,
      "period": "2026-09-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 254416,
      "value": 40102964278586.1,
      "period": "2026-09-03"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.