Status superseded. A newer period superseded it.

US total public debt outstanding · United States · as of 2026-10-08

US total public debt outstanding (United States) rose 0.05% in 2026-10-08, a new high for the series

US total public debt outstanding for United States was 40,305,316,210,830 US dollars in 2026-10-08, up 21,280,063,463 US dollars (+0.05%) from 40,284,036,147,367 in 2026-10-07; that change ranks in the 87th percentile of daily changes recorded since 1993-04-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page

What changed

US total public debt outstanding

40.31TUS dollars+0.05%

Latest: 40.31T in 2026-10-08 obs 411265
Previous: 40.28T in 2026-10-07 obs 411266
Change: +21.28B US dollars
History: 8410 observations, 1993-04-01 to 2026-10-08

How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z: 4.33
Change percentile: 87th of 8408 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile: 100th of earlier values
Median change: 869.17M (scale 4.71B, mad)
Second difference: 10.27B (z 1.10)
Slope divergence: -2.03
Rarity: last larger move 2 periods ago (2026-10-06); new series high

Confidence and status

Record

Relevance: 0.303
Confidence: 57%
Status: superseded
Discovered: 2026-10-12 00:11 UTC
Expires: 2026-11-11 00:11 UTC
Model: relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation: passed
Causal level: candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived

Statistical surprise0.96 × 0.18 = 0.173

Acceleration0.44 × 0.12 = 0.052

Breadth0.33 × 0.16 = 0.053

Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000

Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14

Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10

Historical rarity0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024

Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04

Relevance0.303

Statistical surprise: the latest change of +21,280,063,463 US dollars is 4.3 robust standard deviations from the median daily change (8408 earlier changes), at the 87th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.96, weight 0.18, contribution 0.173.
Acceleration: second-difference z 1.1; short-versus-long slope divergence -2.03. Component 0.44, weight 0.12, contribution 0.052.
Breadth: 1 of 3 related metrics (same category, Resilience) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 2 moved the other way. Component 0.33, weight 0.16, contribution 0.053.
Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
Historical rarity: the last larger move was 2 periods ago, in 2026-10-06; the value is a new series high (window 20 years). Component 0.30, weight 0.08, contribution 0.024.
Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.303, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US total public debt outstanding, United States, is 40,305,316,210,830 US dollars for 2026-10-08 (obs 411265). The previous period, 2026-10-07, recorded 40,284,036,147,367 US dollars (obs 411266). The change is +21,280,063,463 US dollars, or +0.05%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 8408 earlier daily changes since 1993-04-01, the median change is +869,166,760 US dollars and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 4,711,075,999, giving a robust z-score of 4.3. The absolute change sits at the 87th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +23,920,148,141 US dollars in 2026-10-06 (obs 411267, obs 411268), 2 periods ago. The value is a new high for the series, above 40,284,036,147,367 US dollars in 2026-10-07 (obs 411266).

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +10,268,495,315 US dollars, a robust z of 1.1 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +16,145,815,805 US dollars per period against +25,698,111,136 over the last 10, a divergence of -2.03 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled

Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 9b25bbde-5884-4e3d-a173-bedc8c32ce14. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:411265] records US total public debt outstanding at 40305316210829.72 US dollars on 2026-10-08. Observation [observation:411266] records 40284036147367.19 US dollars on 2026-10-07. Observation [observation:411267] records 40273024579219.17 US dollars on 2026-10-06. The data are consistent with continuation of the upward series trend visible across earlier observations such as [observation:411268].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The model estimates may reflect routine end-of-period accounting adjustments rather than a sustained acceleration.

Why now

The value in [observation:411265] exceeds all prior observations in the supplied list and meets the new-high criterion for the series.

What to watch

Subsequent daily observations of US total public debt outstanding such as those referenced in [observation:411265] and [observation:411266].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

Metric	Latest	Change	Evidence
US federal receipts, monthlycategory	360.03B US dollars (2026-08-01)	+26.02B (+7.79%)	obs 409185, obs 263459

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

2 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

US federal interest expense, monthly: -5,176,847,761 US dollars (-5.29%) to 92,591,721,785 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 411270, obs 263151)
US federal outlays, monthly: -239,465,915,402 US dollars (-31.25%) to 526,829,688,119 US dollars in 2026-08-01 (obs 409184, obs 409183)

10 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

US federal interest expense, monthly moved against this insight.
US federal outlays, monthly moved against this insight.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

The next US total public debt outstanding observation (2026-10-09): a change no larger than the median daily change of +869,166,760 US dollars, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
US federal receipts, monthly, currently 360,032,735,841 US dollars in 2026-08-01 (obs 409185): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
Revisions: a revised 2026-10-08 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 411265) and trigger a rescore.
Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.

Evidence

Every number links here

Observed

Observation	Metric	Period	Value	Role	Series	Ingested
411265	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-08	40.31T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
411266	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-07	40.28T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
411267	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-06	40.27T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
411268	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-05	40.25T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
262801	US total public debt outstandingUSA	1993-04-01	4.23T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
411270	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-09-01	92.59B US dollars	counter	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
263151	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	97.77B US dollars	counter	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409184	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	526.83B US dollars	counter	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-09-14 00:06 UTC
409183	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-07-01	766.3B US dollars	counter	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-09-14 00:06 UTC
409185	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	360.03B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-09-14 00:06 UTC
263459	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-07-01	334.01B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC

Feature packet (full inputs to the score)

{
  "as_of": "2026-10-08",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.000528,
    "value": 21280063462.531246,
    "observation_ids": [
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      411266
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
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    "value": 40305316210829.72,
    "period": "2026-10-08"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "b6d1b078-ad94-4c75-8005-3a444f577266",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US total public debt outstanding",
    "slug": "us-federal-debt-total",
    "unit": "US dollars",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "daily",
    "category_id": "871b8b44-f97d-469c-b707-3e0b71b10b54",
    "category_name": "Resilience",
    "category_slug": "resilience",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "daily"
  },
  "rarity": {
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      "value": 40284036147367.19,
      "period": "2026-10-07"
    },
    "prior_min": {
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      "value": 4225873987843.44,
      "period": "1993-04-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 21280063462.531246,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": true,
    "window_periods": 7300,
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      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 2
  },
  "scores": {
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    "breadth": 0.3333,
    "surprise": 0.9608,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.4358,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
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        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
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        "slug": "us-federal-receipts-monthly",
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        "consistent": true,
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    ],
    "opposite": 2,
    "comparable": 3,
    "consistent": 1
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  "history": {
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    "last_period": "2026-10-08",
    "change_count": 8409,
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  },
  "version": "features_v1",
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  "surprise": {
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    "scale_method": "mad",
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    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
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  "centrality": {
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    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
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  "acceleration": {
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    "short_observation_ids": [
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  "series_window": [
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    },
    {
      "id": 411177,
      "value": 40097178119750.91,
      "period": "2026-09-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 411176,
      "value": 40102185696865.37,
      "period": "2026-09-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 411175,
      "value": 40096954633566.68,
      "period": "2026-09-29"
    },
    {
      "id": 411174,
      "value": 40171825101340.31,
      "period": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 411173,
      "value": 40260641972390.03,
      "period": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411269,
      "value": 40242446619209.33,
      "period": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 411268,
      "value": 40249104431078.48,
      "period": "2026-10-05"
    },
    {
      "id": 411267,
      "value": 40273024579219.17,
      "period": "2026-10-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 411266,
      "value": 40284036147367.19,
      "period": "2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 411265,
      "value": 40305316210829.72,
      "period": "2026-10-08"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.