Status superseded. A newer period superseded it.
US total public debt outstanding · United States · as of 2026-10-22
US total public debt outstanding (United States) rose 0.08% in 2026-10-22, an unusually large daily move
US total public debt outstanding for United States was 40,444,342,709,389 US dollars in 2026-10-22, up 30,703,697,083 US dollars (+0.08%) from 40,413,639,012,306 in 2026-10-21; that change ranks in the 92nd percentile of daily changes recorded since 1993-04-01.
What changed
US total public debt outstanding
40.44TUS dollars+0.08%
- Latest
- 40.44T in 2026-10-22 obs 420687
- Previous
- 40.41T in 2026-10-21 obs 420688
- Change
- +30.7B US dollars
- History
- 8419 observations, 1993-04-01 to 2026-10-22
How unusual
Against its own history
- Robust z
- 6.32
- Change percentile
- 92nd of 8417 earlier absolute changes
- Value percentile
- 100th of earlier values
- Median change
- 869.78M (scale 4.72B, mad)
- Second difference
- 56.61B (z 6.08)
- Slope divergence
- -2.98
- Rarity
- last larger move 2 periods ago (2026-10-20); new series high
Confidence and status
Record
- Relevance
- 0.426
- Confidence
- 68%
- Status
- superseded
- Discovered
- 2026-10-26 00:08 UTC
- Expires
- 2026-11-25 00:08 UTC
- Model
- relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
- Validation
- passed
- Causal level
- candidate
Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.
Why now
Relevance components
Derived
Statistical surprise0.98 × 0.18 = 0.176
Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120
Breadth0.67 × 0.16 = 0.107
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.426
- Statistical surprise: the latest change of +30,703,697,083 US dollars is 6.3 robust standard deviations from the median daily change (8417 earlier changes), at the 92nd percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.98, weight 0.18, contribution 0.176.
- Acceleration: second-difference z 6.1; short-versus-long slope divergence -2.98. Component 1.00, weight 0.12, contribution 0.120.
- Breadth: 2 of 3 related metrics (same category, Resilience) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 1 moved the other way. Component 0.67, weight 0.16, contribution 0.107.
- Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
- Historical rarity: the last larger move was 2 periods ago, in 2026-10-20; the value is a new series high (window 20 years). Component 0.30, weight 0.08, contribution 0.024.
- Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
- Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
- Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.
Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.426, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.
Explanation
What changed and how unusual it is
Derived
What changed. The latest current observation for US total public debt outstanding, United States, is 40,444,342,709,389 US dollars for 2026-10-22 (obs 420687). The previous period, 2026-10-21, recorded 40,413,639,012,306 US dollars (obs 420688). The change is +30,703,697,083 US dollars, or +0.08%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.
How unusual. Against the 8417 earlier daily changes since 1993-04-01, the median change is +869,778,306 US dollars and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 4,721,238,942, giving a robust z-score of 6.3. The absolute change sits at the 92nd percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +43,144,895,554 US dollars in 2026-10-20 (obs 420689, obs 420690), 2 periods ago. The value is a new high for the series, above 40,439,546,016,039 US dollars in 2026-10-20 (obs 420689).
Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +56,610,700,816 US dollars, a robust z of 6.1 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +2,398,346,675 US dollars per period against +16,456,889,327 over the last 10, a divergence of -2.98 change-scale units.
Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.
AI explanation
Modeled interpretation
Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run bc76bf5a-0acf-4bce-9e07-771a130fd6f0. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.
Explanation
The observed value [observation:420687] stands above the prior day's observed value [observation:420688] and the observed value two days prior [observation:420689]. The data are consistent with a daily increase after the observed value [observation:420690] on 2026-10-19.
Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)
The sequence of observed values remains within the range of prior daily fluctuations recorded in the same metric.
Why now
The most recent daily observation [observation:420687] became available on 2026-10-22.
What to watch
Subsequent daily observations of US total public debt outstanding such as those referenced in [observation:420687] and [observation:420688].
Affected systems
Supporting metrics
| Metric | Latest | Change | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| US federal outlays, monthlycategory | 584.77B US dollars (2026-09-01) | +57.96B (+11.00%) | obs 415610, obs 415609 |
| US federal receipts, monthlycategory | 557.87B US dollars (2026-09-01) | +197.84B (+54.95%) | obs 415611, obs 409185 |
No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.
Counter-evidence
What points the other way
1 related metric moved the other way as of their latest periods:
- US federal interest expense, monthly: -5,176,847,761 US dollars (-5.29%) to 92,591,721,785 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 411270, obs 263151)
10 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.
Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.
- US federal interest expense, monthly moved against this insight.
What to watch
Measurable indicators
- The next US total public debt outstanding observation (2026-10-23): a change no larger than the median daily change of +869,778,306 US dollars, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
- US federal outlays, monthly, currently 584,774,866,340 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 415610): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- US federal receipts, monthly, currently 557,874,519,238 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 415611): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
- Revisions: a revised 2026-10-22 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 420687) and trigger a rescore.
- Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence
Every number links here
Observed
| Observation | Metric | Period | Value | Role | Series | Ingested |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 420687 | US total public debt outstandingUSA | 2026-10-22 | 40.44T US dollars | primary | v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt | 2026-10-26 00:04 UTC |
| 420688 | US total public debt outstandingUSA | 2026-10-21 | 40.41T US dollars | primary | v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt | 2026-10-26 00:04 UTC |
| 420689 | US total public debt outstandingUSA | 2026-10-20 | 40.44T US dollars | context | v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt | 2026-10-26 00:04 UTC |
| 420690 | US total public debt outstandingUSA | 2026-10-19 | 40.4T US dollars | context | v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt | 2026-10-26 00:04 UTC |
| 262801 | US total public debt outstandingUSA | 1993-04-01 | 4.23T US dollars | context | v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt | 2026-09-07 09:54 UTC |
| 411270 | US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA | 2026-09-01 | 92.59B US dollars | counter | v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt | 2026-10-12 00:04 UTC |
| 263151 | US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA | 2026-08-01 | 97.77B US dollars | counter | v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt | 2026-09-07 09:54 UTC |
| 415610 | US federal outlays, monthlyUSA | 2026-09-01 | 584.77B US dollars | supporting | v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt | 2026-10-19 00:15 UTC |
| 415609 | US federal outlays, monthlyUSA | 2026-08-01 | 526.81B US dollars | supporting | v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt | 2026-10-19 00:15 UTC |
| 415611 | US federal receipts, monthlyUSA | 2026-09-01 | 557.87B US dollars | supporting | v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt | 2026-10-19 00:15 UTC |
| 409185 | US federal receipts, monthlyUSA | 2026-08-01 | 360.03B US dollars | supporting | v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt | 2026-09-14 00:06 UTC |
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
"as_of": "2026-10-22",
"change": {
"pct": 0.00076,
"value": 30703697083.179688,
"observation_ids": [
420687,
420688
]
},
"latest": {
"id": 420687,
"value": 40444342709389.15,
"period": "2026-10-22"
},
"metric": {
"id": "b6d1b078-ad94-4c75-8005-3a444f577266",
"kind": "observed",
"name": "US total public debt outstanding",
"slug": "us-federal-debt-total",
"unit": "US dollars",
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "daily",
"category_id": "871b8b44-f97d-469c-b707-3e0b71b10b54",
"category_name": "Resilience",
"category_slug": "resilience",
"geography_default": "USA",
"frequency_normalised": "daily"
},
"rarity": {
"prior_max": {
"id": 420689,
"value": 40439546016039.08,
"period": "2026-10-20"
},
"prior_min": {
"id": 262801,
"value": 4225873987843.44,
"period": "1993-04-01"
},
"abs_change": 30703697083.179688,
"all_time_low": false,
"largest_ever": false,
"window_years": 20,
"all_time_high": true,
"window_periods": 7300,
"last_larger_move": {
"change": 43144895554.03125,
"period": "2026-10-20",
"observation_ids": [
420689,
420690
]
},
"largest_in_window": false,
"periods_since_larger_move": 2
},
"scores": {
"rarity": 0.3002,
"breadth": 0.6667,
"surprise": 0.9754,
"centrality": 0,
"acceleration": 0.997,
"forecast_impact": 0,
"public_attention": 0,
"bottleneck_impact": 0
},
"breadth": {
"via": "category",
"share": 0.6667,
"related": [
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: aluminum",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-aluminum",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "ff6070a4-dfd9-445a-8dc8-b6735a710f9f",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: cement",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-cement",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "e2c590b8-c4a3-4f2b-b1f2-41d3a7390403",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: copper",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-copper",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "e1d34a5d-2768-44be-a294-eebb068f0da1",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: electricity",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-electricity-system",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "250ce6ad-8acb-411f-8938-33fa458156d5",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: semiconductors",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-semiconductor-fab",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "11117744-4b9d-4a12-97b8-95ac5a39639d",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: steel",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-electrical-steel",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "e60cee04-96cc-4e15-ae9a-832bb017d51d",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Constraint centrality: transformers",
"slug": "constraint-centrality-power-transformer",
"unit": "index",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
"metric_id": "3b0e6eff-fe41-4085-b0d7-c23be28bdabe",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Copper production top-3 country concentration",
"slug": "copper-top3-concentration",
"unit": "percent of world production",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "lower_better",
"frequency": "annual",
"metric_id": "b29ac60e-fa60-4adc-9ca5-e22015210b1f",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Lithium production top-3 country concentration",
"slug": "lithium-top3-concentration",
"unit": "percent of world production",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "lower_better",
"frequency": "annual",
"metric_id": "f1121d04-7d85-4056-8575-6052208c2efe",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "Rare earth production top-3 country concentration",
"slug": "rare-earth-top3-concentration",
"unit": "percent of world production",
"change": null,
"latest": null,
"previous": null,
"direction": "lower_better",
"frequency": "annual",
"metric_id": "0c5f9e3c-c9d9-4ddc-a791-73ea8ec101e8",
"change_pct": null,
"consistent": null,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US federal interest expense, monthly",
"slug": "us-federal-interest-expense-monthly",
"unit": "US dollars",
"change": -5176847761.25,
"latest": {
"id": 411270,
"value": 92591721784.75,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 263151,
"value": 97768569546,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "395ee5ea-5ca5-4508-97b9-59476d157548",
"change_pct": -0.05295,
"consistent": false,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US federal outlays, monthly",
"slug": "us-federal-outlays-monthly",
"unit": "US dollars",
"change": 57963318444.59003,
"latest": {
"id": 415610,
"value": 584774866340.26,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 415609,
"value": 526811547895.67,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "107653c9-ab9f-4b01-bfa9-32ede38d94b7",
"change_pct": 0.110027,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
},
{
"via": "category",
"name": "US federal receipts, monthly",
"slug": "us-federal-receipts-monthly",
"unit": "US dollars",
"change": 197841783396.82,
"latest": {
"id": 415611,
"value": 557874519238.24,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
"previous": {
"id": 409185,
"value": 360032735841.42,
"period": "2026-08-01"
},
"direction": "contextual",
"frequency": "monthly",
"metric_id": "b533f02a-9992-4f95-909f-d399abf873e1",
"change_pct": 0.549511,
"consistent": true,
"relationship_ids": []
}
],
"opposite": 1,
"comparable": 3,
"consistent": 2
},
"history": {
"count": 8419,
"last_period": "2026-10-22",
"change_count": 8418,
"first_period": "1993-04-01"
},
"version": "features_v1",
"previous": {
"id": 420688,
"value": 40413639012305.97,
"period": "2026-10-21"
},
"surprise": {
"note": null,
"scale": 4721238942.265104,
"robust_z": 6.3191,
"mad_change": 3184432039.838867,
"change_count": 8417,
"scale_method": "mad",
"median_change": 869778305.610352,
"value_percentile": 1,
"abs_change_percentile": 0.9181
},
"geography": {
"id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
"code": "USA",
"name": "United States"
},
"centrality": {
"value": 0,
"source": "none",
"entity_ids": [],
"entity_slugs": []
},
"acceleration": {
"note": null,
"long_slope": 16456889326.593798,
"long_window": 10,
"short_slope": 2398346675.035156,
"short_window": 3,
"slope_divergence": -2.9777,
"second_difference": 56610700816.28906,
"second_difference_z": 6.0814,
"long_observation_ids": [
411265,
415606,
415605,
415604,
415603,
420691,
420690,
420689,
420688,
420687
],
"short_observation_ids": [
420689,
420688,
420687
]
},
"series_window": [
{
"id": 254422,
"value": 40069751423220.72,
"period": "2026-08-26"
},
{
"id": 254421,
"value": 40077529831942.94,
"period": "2026-08-27"
},
{
"id": 254420,
"value": 40104097482666.58,
"period": "2026-08-28"
},
{
"id": 254419,
"value": 40175641071634.14,
"period": "2026-08-31"
},
{
"id": 254418,
"value": 40112464593206.3,
"period": "2026-09-01"
},
{
"id": 254417,
"value": 40117045127072.57,
"period": "2026-09-02"
},
{
"id": 254416,
"value": 40102964278586.1,
"period": "2026-09-03"
},
{
"id": 409180,
"value": 40094590636301.7,
"period": "2026-09-04"
},
{
"id": 409179,
"value": 40084090785446.35,
"period": "2026-09-08"
},
{
"id": 409178,
"value": 40074284925786.5,
"period": "2026-09-09"
},
{
"id": 409177,
"value": 40047726949770.15,
"period": "2026-09-10"
},
{
"id": 410469,
"value": 40046178322792.78,
"period": "2026-09-11"
},
{
"id": 410468,
"value": 40054421967786.91,
"period": "2026-09-14"
},
{
"id": 410467,
"value": 40114445691166.84,
"period": "2026-09-15"
},
{
"id": 410466,
"value": 40094080427790.97,
"period": "2026-09-16"
},
{
"id": 410465,
"value": 40093343468150.5,
"period": "2026-09-17"
},
{
"id": 410563,
"value": 40101500516712.09,
"period": "2026-09-18"
},
{
"id": 410562,
"value": 40112118151111.92,
"period": "2026-09-21"
},
{
"id": 410561,
"value": 40097834028442.07,
"period": "2026-09-22"
},
{
"id": 410560,
"value": 40073558531201.68,
"period": "2026-09-23"
},
{
"id": 410559,
"value": 40068807991924.84,
"period": "2026-09-24"
},
{
"id": 411177,
"value": 40097178119750.91,
"period": "2026-09-25"
},
{
"id": 411176,
"value": 40102185696865.37,
"period": "2026-09-28"
},
{
"id": 411175,
"value": 40096954633566.68,
"period": "2026-09-29"
},
{
"id": 411174,
"value": 40171825101340.31,
"period": "2026-09-30"
},
{
"id": 411173,
"value": 40260641972390.03,
"period": "2026-10-01"
},
{
"id": 411269,
"value": 40242446619209.33,
"period": "2026-10-02"
},
{
"id": 411268,
"value": 40249104431078.48,
"period": "2026-10-05"
},
{
"id": 411267,
"value": 40273024579219.17,
"period": "2026-10-06"
},
{
"id": 411266,
"value": 40284036147367.19,
"period": "2026-10-07"
},
{
"id": 411265,
"value": 40305316210829.72,
"period": "2026-10-08"
},
{
"id": 415606,
"value": 40301480531899.65,
"period": "2026-10-09"
},
{
"id": 415605,
"value": 40343879238035.67,
"period": "2026-10-13"
},
{
"id": 415604,
"value": 40329229827541.02,
"period": "2026-10-14"
},
{
"id": 415603,
"value": 40388317675071.91,
"period": "2026-10-15"
},
{
"id": 420691,
"value": 40387508795231.67,
"period": "2026-10-16"
},
{
"id": 420690,
"value": 40396401120485.05,
"period": "2026-10-19"
},
{
"id": 420689,
"value": 40439546016039.08,
"period": "2026-10-20"
},
{
"id": 420688,
"value": 40413639012305.97,
"period": "2026-10-21"
},
{
"id": 420687,
"value": 40444342709389.15,
"period": "2026-10-22"
}
],
"forecast_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"public_attention": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
},
"bottleneck_impact": {
"value": 0,
"source": "not_wired"
}
}Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.