US total public debt outstanding · United States · as of 2026-10-29

US total public debt outstanding (United States) rose 0.10% in 2026-10-29, an unusually large daily move

US total public debt outstanding for United States was 40,593,637,262,883 US dollars in 2026-10-29, up 42,582,410,521 US dollars (+0.10%) from 40,551,054,852,362 in 2026-10-28; that change ranks in the 95th percentile of daily changes recorded since 1993-04-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page

What changed

US total public debt outstanding

40.59TUS dollars+0.10%

Latest: 40.59T in 2026-10-29 obs 420995
Previous: 40.55T in 2026-10-28 obs 420996
Change: +42.58B US dollars
History: 8424 observations, 1993-04-01 to 2026-10-29

How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z: 8.81
Change percentile: 95th of 8422 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile: 100th of earlier values
Median change: 870.91M (scale 4.74B, mad)
Second difference: 73.8B (z 7.91)
Slope divergence: -3.94
Rarity: last larger move 2 periods ago (2026-10-27); new series high

Confidence and status

Record

Relevance: 0.428
Confidence: 68%
Status: published
Discovered: 2026-11-02 00:11 UTC
Expires: 2026-12-02 00:11 UTC
Model: relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation: passed
Causal level: candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived

Statistical surprise0.98 × 0.18 = 0.177

Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120

Breadth0.67 × 0.16 = 0.107

Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000

Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14

Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10

Historical rarity0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024

Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04

Relevance0.428

Statistical surprise: the latest change of +42,582,410,521 US dollars is 8.8 robust standard deviations from the median daily change (8422 earlier changes), at the 95th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.98, weight 0.18, contribution 0.177.
Acceleration: second-difference z 7.9; short-versus-long slope divergence -3.94. Component 1.00, weight 0.12, contribution 0.120.
Breadth: 2 of 3 related metrics (same category, Resilience) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 1 moved the other way. Component 0.67, weight 0.16, contribution 0.107.
Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
Historical rarity: the last larger move was 2 periods ago, in 2026-10-27; the value is a new series high (window 20 years). Component 0.30, weight 0.08, contribution 0.024.
Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.428, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US total public debt outstanding, United States, is 40,593,637,262,883 US dollars for 2026-10-29 (obs 420995). The previous period, 2026-10-28, recorded 40,551,054,852,362 US dollars (obs 420996). The change is +42,582,410,521 US dollars, or +0.10%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 8422 earlier daily changes since 1993-04-01, the median change is +870,910,228 US dollars and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 4,735,223,841, giving a robust z-score of 8.8. The absolute change sits at the 95th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +53,915,315,428 US dollars in 2026-10-27 (obs 420997, obs 420998), 2 periods ago. The value is a new high for the series, above 40,582,274,254,844 US dollars in 2026-10-27 (obs 420997).

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +73,801,813,002 US dollars, a robust z of 7.9 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +5,681,504,020 US dollars per period against +24,329,348,456 over the last 10, a divergence of -3.94 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled

Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 9d520fce-d2a1-43cf-bfa6-0e2b7231956d. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:420995] records 40593637262883.48 US dollars on 2026-10-29. Observation [observation:420996] records 40551054852362.41 US dollars on 2026-10-28. The data are consistent with a daily change of 42582410521.07 US dollars. Observation [observation:420997] records 40582274254843.57 US dollars on 2026-10-27.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal end-of-month accounting variation.

Why now

The move registers as an unusually large daily change relative to recent values in the supplied observations.

What to watch

Subsequent daily readings of US total public debt outstanding such as [observation:420995] and [observation:420996].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

Metric	Latest	Change	Evidence
US federal outlays, monthlycategory	584.77B US dollars (2026-09-01)	+57.96B (+11.00%)	obs 415610, obs 415609
US federal receipts, monthlycategory	557.87B US dollars (2026-09-01)	+197.84B (+54.95%)	obs 415611, obs 409185

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

1 related metric moved the other way as of their latest periods:

US federal interest expense, monthly: -5,176,847,761 US dollars (-5.29%) to 92,591,721,785 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 411270, obs 263151)

10 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

US federal interest expense, monthly moved against this insight.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

The next US total public debt outstanding observation (2026-10-30): a change no larger than the median daily change of +870,910,228 US dollars, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
US federal outlays, monthly, currently 584,774,866,340 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 415610): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
US federal receipts, monthly, currently 557,874,519,238 US dollars in 2026-09-01 (obs 415611): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
Revisions: a revised 2026-10-29 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 420995) and trigger a rescore.
Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.

Evidence

Every number links here

Observed

Observation	Metric	Period	Value	Role	Series	Ingested
420995	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-29	40.59T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420996	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-28	40.55T US dollars	primary	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420997	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-27	40.58T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420998	US total public debt outstandingUSA	2026-10-26	40.53T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
262801	US total public debt outstandingUSA	1993-04-01	4.23T US dollars	context	v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny:tot_pub_debt_out_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
411270	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-09-01	92.59B US dollars	counter	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
263151	US federal interest expense, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	97.77B US dollars	counter	v2/accounting/od/interest_expense:month_expense_amt	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
415610	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-09-01	584.77B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-10-19 00:15 UTC
415609	US federal outlays, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	526.81B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_outly_amt	2026-10-19 00:15 UTC
415611	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-09-01	557.87B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-10-19 00:15 UTC
409185	US federal receipts, monthlyUSA	2026-08-01	360.03B US dollars	supporting	v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_1:current_month_gross_rcpt_amt	2026-09-14 00:06 UTC

Feature packet (full inputs to the score)

{
  "as_of": "2026-10-29",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.00105,
    "value": 42582410521.07031,
    "observation_ids": [
      420995,
      420996
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 420995,
    "value": 40593637262883.48,
    "period": "2026-10-29"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "b6d1b078-ad94-4c75-8005-3a444f577266",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US total public debt outstanding",
    "slug": "us-federal-debt-total",
    "unit": "US dollars",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "daily",
    "category_id": "871b8b44-f97d-469c-b707-3e0b71b10b54",
    "category_name": "Resilience",
    "category_slug": "resilience",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "daily"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 420997,
      "value": 40582274254843.57,
      "period": "2026-10-27"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 262801,
      "value": 4225873987843.44,
      "period": "1993-04-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 42582410521.07031,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": true,
    "window_periods": 7300,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 53915315427.71875,
      "period": "2026-10-27",
      "observation_ids": [
        420997,
        420998
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 2
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.3002,
    "breadth": 0.6667,
    "surprise": 0.9846,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 1,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.6667,
    "related": [
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        "name": "Constraint centrality: aluminum",
        "slug": "constraint-centrality-aluminum",
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        "frequency": "as computed (weekly)",
        "metric_id": "ff6070a4-dfd9-445a-8dc8-b6735a710f9f",
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        "relationship_ids": []
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      {
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        "name": "Constraint centrality: cement",
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      {
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      {
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        "name": "Constraint centrality: electricity",
        "slug": "constraint-centrality-electricity-system",
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "slug": "copper-top3-concentration",
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        "slug": "rare-earth-top3-concentration",
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      },
      {
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        "name": "US federal interest expense, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-interest-expense-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": -5176847761.25,
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        },
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        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "395ee5ea-5ca5-4508-97b9-59476d157548",
        "change_pct": -0.05295,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US federal outlays, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-outlays-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": 57963318444.59003,
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        },
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        "change_pct": 0.110027,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US federal receipts, monthly",
        "slug": "us-federal-receipts-monthly",
        "unit": "US dollars",
        "change": 197841783396.82,
        "latest": {
          "id": 415611,
          "value": 557874519238.24,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 409185,
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        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b533f02a-9992-4f95-909f-d399abf873e1",
        "change_pct": 0.549511,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 1,
    "comparable": 3,
    "consistent": 2
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 8424,
    "last_period": "2026-10-29",
    "change_count": 8423,
    "first_period": "1993-04-01"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
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    "value": 40551054852362.41,
    "period": "2026-10-28"
  },
  "surprise": {
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    "scale": 4735223840.868018,
    "robust_z": 8.8088,
    "mad_change": 3193864724.71875,
    "change_count": 8422,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 870910227.604004,
    "value_percentile": 1,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.9488
  },
  "geography": {
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    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 24329348455.87822,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": 5681504019.953125,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -3.9381,
    "second_difference": 73801813002.23438,
    "second_difference_z": 7.9082,
    "long_observation_ids": [
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    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
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      420995
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
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    },
    {
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    {
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    },
    {
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    {
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      "period": "2026-09-09"
    },
    {
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      "period": "2026-09-10"
    },
    {
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    {
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    {
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    },
    {
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    },
    {
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      "period": "2026-09-17"
    },
    {
      "id": 410563,
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    },
    {
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      "value": 40112118151111.92,
      "period": "2026-09-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 410561,
      "value": 40097834028442.07,
      "period": "2026-09-22"
    },
    {
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      "value": 40073558531201.68,
      "period": "2026-09-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 410559,
      "value": 40068807991924.84,
      "period": "2026-09-24"
    },
    {
      "id": 411177,
      "value": 40097178119750.91,
      "period": "2026-09-25"
    },
    {
      "id": 411176,
      "value": 40102185696865.37,
      "period": "2026-09-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 411175,
      "value": 40096954633566.68,
      "period": "2026-09-29"
    },
    {
      "id": 411174,
      "value": 40171825101340.31,
      "period": "2026-09-30"
    },
    {
      "id": 411173,
      "value": 40260641972390.03,
      "period": "2026-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 411269,
      "value": 40242446619209.33,
      "period": "2026-10-02"
    },
    {
      "id": 411268,
      "value": 40249104431078.48,
      "period": "2026-10-05"
    },
    {
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      "period": "2026-10-06"
    },
    {
      "id": 411266,
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      "period": "2026-10-07"
    },
    {
      "id": 411265,
      "value": 40305316210829.72,
      "period": "2026-10-08"
    },
    {
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      "value": 40301480531899.65,
      "period": "2026-10-09"
    },
    {
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      "period": "2026-10-13"
    },
    {
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      "value": 40329229827541.02,
      "period": "2026-10-14"
    },
    {
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      "value": 40388317675071.91,
      "period": "2026-10-15"
    },
    {
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    },
    {
      "id": 420690,
      "value": 40396401120485.05,
      "period": "2026-10-19"
    },
    {
      "id": 420689,
      "value": 40439546016039.08,
      "period": "2026-10-20"
    },
    {
      "id": 420688,
      "value": 40413639012305.97,
      "period": "2026-10-21"
    },
    {
      "id": 420687,
      "value": 40444342709389.15,
      "period": "2026-10-22"
    },
    {
      "id": 420999,
      "value": 40463151897249.19,
      "period": "2026-10-23"
    },
    {
      "id": 420998,
      "value": 40528358939415.85,
      "period": "2026-10-26"
    },
    {
      "id": 420997,
      "value": 40582274254843.57,
      "period": "2026-10-27"
    },
    {
      "id": 420996,
      "value": 40551054852362.41,
      "period": "2026-10-28"
    },
    {
      "id": 420995,
      "value": 40593637262883.48,
      "period": "2026-10-29"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.