USA · snapshot 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · data to 2026-07-01
US housing construction
Is US home building recovering, and what is holding it back?
US housing starts was 1,239 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-07-01, down 13.5 percent over one year, a move at the 57th percentile of its one-year changes.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
AI narrative Modeled
US housing starts stand at 1239 thousands of units seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-07-01 [obs:169883], down 193 thousand units or 13.5 percent from 1432 one year earlier at the 57th percentile of one-year moves [obs:169871]. Building permits are 1433 thousands of units, up 2.4 percent year over year [obs:164614][obs:164602]. Residential construction spending is 871205 millions of dollars, down 7.3 percent [obs:182544][obs:182532].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
US housing starts
Privately owned housing units started, annual rate.
1,239 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 1,415 (2026-06-01) | -176 (-12.4%) | 89th |
| 1 year | 1,432 (2025-07-01) | -193 (-13.5%) | 57th of 798 |
| 5 years | 1,600 (2021-07-01) | -361 (-22.6%) | 56th of 750 |
| 10 years | 1,239 (2016-07-01) | 0 (0.0%) | 0th of 690 |
US building permits
Permits lead starts by one to three months.
1,433 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 1,374 (2026-06-01) | 59 (+4.3%) | 63rd |
| 1 year | 1,400 (2025-07-01) | 33 (+2.4%) | 12th of 786 |
| 5 years | 1,666 (2021-07-01) | -233 (-14.0%) | 29th of 738 |
| 10 years | 1,198 (2016-07-01) | 235 (+19.6%) | 19th of 678 |
US residential construction spending
Residential construction spending.
871,205 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 882,821 (2026-06-01) | -11,616 (-1.3%) | 77th |
| 1 year | 939,959 (2025-07-01) | -68,754 (-7.3%) | 62nd of 282 |
| 5 years | 816,883 (2021-07-01) | 54,322 (+6.6%) | 6th of 234 |
| 10 years | 483,205 (2016-07-01) | 388,000 (+80.3%) | 59th of 174 |
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
AI narrative Modeled
The latest value is at the 26th percentile of the series history [obs:169229][obs:169676]. The one-year change ranks at the 89th percentile of past changes with robust z of -1.7854 and one period since a larger move.
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- Latest value percentile
- 26th of 810 values
- Latest change percentile
- 89th of 809 changes
- Robust z of latest change
- -1.79
- Largest move
- 1 period since a larger move
- Record level
- no
- Previous comparable move
- 2026-06-01: 233 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate (obs 169882, 169881)
- Prior maximum
- 2,494 (1972-01-01, obs 169229)
- Prior minimum
- 478 (2009-04-01, obs 169676)
Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
AI narrative Modeled
Documented mechanism: a higher policy rate raises borrowing cost which reduces construction financing and residential building [mechanism:7006539d-a8a2-4038-86d0-112809badec4]. Construction labour availability is not stored as a series. Local permitting and zoning constraints do not appear in national totals.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Documented mechanisms
- A higher policy rate raises borrowing cost, which reduces construction financing and residential buildingMechanism supportedpolicy-interest-rate → construction-financing → residential-construction → housing
Model-supported drivers
No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).
Hypotheses
No candidate or hypothesized relationship touches this topic's entities.
Unknowns
- Construction labour availability is not stored as a series.
- Local permitting and zoning constraints do not appear in national totals.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
AI narrative Modeled
US unemployment rate is 4.1 percent with year-over-year change inside the 10th to 90th percentile band of past changes [obs:213832]. Average hourly earnings are 37.75 US dollars per hour inside the band [obs:393725]. Nonfarm payroll employment is 159075 thousands of persons inside the band [obs:178884].
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| Series | Latest | Basis | Normal band (p10 to p90) | Historical range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US unemployment rate Observed Unemployment rate; household income supports demand. | 4.1 percent 2026-08-01, obs 213832 | year-over-year change -0.2 (-4.7%) 930 past changes | -1.1 to 1.7 | 2.5 (1953-05-01) to 14.8 (2020-04-01) since 1948-01-01; latest at the 19th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| US average hourly earnings, all private employees Observed Average hourly earnings. | 37.75 US dollars per hour 2026-08-01, obs 393725 | year-over-year change 1.13 (+3.1%) 233 past changes | 0.44 to 1.47 | 20.04 (2006-03-01) to 37.75 (2026-08-01) since 2006-03-01; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| US nonfarm payroll employment Observed Nonfarm payrolls. | 159,075 thousands of persons 2026-08-01, obs 178884 | year-over-year change 603 (+0.4%) 1039 past changes | -1,114.6 to 3,451.8 | 29,923 (1939-01-01) to 159,075 (2026-08-01) since 1939-01-01; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
AI narrative Modeled
Inventory of homes for sale is not measured. Substitution options for softwood lumber list 0 substitutes. Lumber and fixture imports are not ingested. Rate sensitivity of buyers is not measured here. The federal funds rate is 3.63 percent [obs:169072] and the 10-year yield is 4.77 percent [obs:200327].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
US federal funds effective rate
3.63 percent · 2026-08-01 · yoy -16.2% · obs 169072
The policy rate; mortgage rates follow with a lag.
US 10-year Treasury yield
4.77 percent · 2026-09-03 · yoy +13.0% · obs 200327
The 10-year yield anchors mortgage pricing.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Homes for sale and months of supply are not ingested.
Softwood lumber
The graph records no substitute for this entity.
Substitutes recorded on the graph for framing materials.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Lumber and fixture imports are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Rate sensitivity of buyers is not measured here.
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
AI narrative Modeled
Residential construction spending shows year-over-year change of -7.3 percent [obs:182544]. Cement production is down 1.2 percent year over year [obs:263553]. Nonfarm payroll employment rose 0.4 percent [obs:178884].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capital spending | US residential construction spending Observed | 871,205 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (2026-07-01, obs 182544) | 939,959 (2025-07-01) | -68,754 (-7.3%) |
| Production | Cement production Observed | 84,000 thousand metric tons (2025, obs 263553) | 85,000 (2024) | -1,000 (-1.2%) |
| Workforce | US nonfarm payroll employment Observed | 159,075 thousands of persons (2026-08-01, obs 178884) | 158,472 (2025-08-01) | 603 (+0.4%) |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
AI narrative Modeled
The 12-month base case is 1239 thousands of units with 80 percent interval 1073 to 1348 [forecast:d48837b4-6b4e-4441-af29-5f931ed00980]. The 6-month base case is 1239 with interval 1109 to 1350 [forecast:3ab4a587-ad7a-4d3c-b172-d30a6832c256]. The model assigns a 10 percent probability to values below the lower bound and above the upper bound.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
US housing starts
Base case
1,239 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
1,347.67 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
1,072.99 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of us-housing-starts (USA) for 2027-07 is below 1,073 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate or above 1,348 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 1,073 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate and a 10 percent probability to a value above 1,348 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- Assumption: No structural break in us-housing-starts between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The most recent value is the best available guess: recent changes carry no persistent information.
US housing starts
Base case
1,239 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
1,350.48 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
1,109.35 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of us-housing-starts (USA) for 2027-01 is below 1,109 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate or above 1,350 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 1,109 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate and a 10 percent probability to a value above 1,350 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- Assumption: No structural break in us-housing-starts between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The most recent value is the best available guess: recent changes carry no persistent information.
Section 8 of 9
What to watch
AI narrative Modeled
US building permits at 1433 thousands show year-over-year percent 2.3571 against threshold 0, status easing [obs:164614]. US housing starts show -13.4777 percent, status worsening [obs:169883]. Federal funds rate at 3.63 percent below threshold 4, status easing [obs:169072]. 10-year yield at 4.77 percent above threshold 4, status worsening [obs:200327].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Permits turning up year over year lead starts.
On the worsening side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Starts rising year over year confirm the recovery in the metric itself.
On the easing side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
A policy rate below 4 percent has historically coincided with stronger building.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
The 10-year yield below 4 percent brings mortgage rates toward the range that clears more buyers.
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
AI narrative Modeled
For us-housing-starts USA 6 month horizon the champion is last_value with backtest MAE 93.78571428571433 over 42 cutoffs and 80 percent interval coverage 81 percent. For 12 month the MAE is 93.69444444444454 over 36 cutoffs with 94 percent coverage. No live evaluations yet.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2b0739ab, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Forecast | Champion | Backtest MAE | Skill vs last value | 80% coverage | Live evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us-housing-starts:USA:6 | last_value | 93.79 over 42 cutoffs | 0% | +81% | none yet |
| us-housing-starts:USA:12 | last_value | 93.69 over 36 cutoffs | 0% | +94% | none yet |
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 5 · 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 0
- AI narrative
- grok-4.3, run 2b0739ab-cf9b-4beb-acb0-1925b748cd2e, prompt 1.0.0, 17 ids cited
- Earlier snapshots
- none
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.