US residential construction spending's largest drop on record, and 7 more moves

Recent data releases show a large decline in US residential construction spending that ranks at the extreme of its historical series. The data are consistent with gains in nonfarm business labor productivity and substantial increases in solar generation capacity additions. Readers may examine the records on cereal yields and energy prices for additional detail.

Insights

US residential construction spending (United States) fell 5.38% in 2026-09-01, the largest monthly change in the recorded series
US residential construction spending for United States was 861,192 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01, down 48,996 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (-5.38%) from 910,188 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 100th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 2002-01-01.
ObservedUS residential construction spendingUnited States2026-09-01
US regular gasoline retail price (United States) fell 2.72% in 2026-11-02, an unusually large annual move
US regular gasoline retail price for United States was 4.15 US dollars per gallon in 2026-11-02, down 0.116 US dollars per gallon (-2.72%) from 4.27 in 2026-10-26; that change ranks in the 96th percentile of annual changes recorded since 1990-08-20.
ObservedUS regular gasoline retail priceUnited States2026-11-02
US nonfarm business labor productivity (United States) rose 0.88% in 2026-07-01, a new high for the series
US nonfarm business labor productivity for United States was 121.92 index 2017=100 in 2026-07-01, up 1.06 index 2017=100 (+0.88%) from 120.86 in 2026-04-01; that change ranks in the 94th percentile of quarterly changes recorded since 1947-01-01.
ObservedUS nonfarm business labor productivityUnited States2026-07-01

Biggest moves

Cereal yieldWorldObserved
Fell 6.5% in 2024, the largest drop on record.
3,954.95 kg per hectare in 2024 · -274.33 kg per hectare (-6.5%) · from 4,229.28 in 2023
observations 2945, 412161 · score 1054
US consumer price index, all itemsUnited StatesObserved
Rose 0.6% in 2026-09-01, the largest rise since 2026.
336.3 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01 · +2.17 index 1982-1984=100 (+0.6%) · from 334.13 in 2026-08-01
observations 415538, 409148 · score 1096
US generation capacity additions, battery storageUnited StatesObserved
Rose 79.2% in 2026-09-01, the largest rise since 2026.
1,511.7 MW in 2026-09-01 · +668.3 MW (+79.2%) · from 843.4 in 2026-08-01
observations 420777, 420776 · score 1014
US consumer price index, energyUnited StatesObserved
Rose 5.2% in 2026-09-01, the largest rise since 2026.
337.83 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01 · +16.69 index 1982-1984=100 (+5.2%) · from 321.15 in 2026-08-01
observations 415394, 409142 · score 1010
US generation capacity additions, solarUnited StatesObserved
Rose 99.4% in 2026-09-01, the largest rise since 2026.
2,825.9 MW in 2026-09-01 · +1,409 MW (+99.4%) · from 1,416.9 in 2026-08-01
observations 420817, 420816 · score 1017

Featured chart

US housing starts and building permits. Line chart of Housing starts (thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate), Building permits (thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate), 2000 to 2026. Housing starts fell from 1,636 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2000-01-01 to 1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01; building permits fell from 1,727 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2000-01-01 to 1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01 (United States). Data table below.

Housing starts fell from 1,636 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2000-01-01 to 1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01; building permits fell from 1,727 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2000-01-01 to 1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01 (United States).Observed

What to watch

- The next US residential construction spending observation (2026-10-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of +2,717 millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised. - US building permits, currently 1,398 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01: a move the other way lowers the breadth component. - US housing starts, currently 1,221 thousands of units, seasonally adjusted annual rate in 2026-09-01: a move the other way lowers the breadth component. - Revisions: a revised 2026-09-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 421092) and tri

The full insight, with its evidence table

New or refreshed data

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED economic data (API)62 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
U.S. Government USAspending API v244 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics BLS Public Data API v223 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
Humanity Vector Humanity Vector documented derivations15 rows · 2 runs · 2026-11-09
U.S. Department of the Treasury Treasury Fiscal Data API11 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission CFTC Commitments of Traders (public reporting API)6 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis BEA Data API0 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
U.S. Energy Information Administration EIA Open Data API v20 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAOSTAT (bulk download service)0 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook database (IMF Data SDMX 2.1 API)0 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
NASA NASA open data (api.nasa.gov and data.nasa.gov)0 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09
NOAA NOAA NCEI access data service0 rows · 1 run · 2026-11-09