US consumer price index, energy · United States · as of 2026-07-01

US consumer price index, energy (United States) fell 1.48% in 2026-07-01, a move against the usual direction

US consumer price index, energy for United States was 314.55 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-07-01, down 4.74 index 1982-1984=100 (-1.48%) from 319.29 in 2026-06-01; that change ranks in the 87th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1957-01-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page

What changed

US consumer price index, energy

314.55index 1982-1984=100-1.48%

Latest: 314.55 in 2026-07-01 obs 239965
Previous: 319.29 in 2026-06-01 obs 239966
Change: -4.74 index 1982-1984=100
History: 834 observations, 1957-01-01 to 2026-07-01

How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z: -4.81
Change percentile: 87th of 832 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile: 100th of earlier values
Median change: 0.1 (scale 1.01, mad)
Second difference: 14.61 (z 14.08)
Slope divergence: -17.87
Rarity: last larger move 1 periods ago (2026-06-01)

Confidence and status

Record

Relevance: 0.333
Confidence: 54%
Status: published
Discovered: 2026-09-07 10:05 UTC
Expires: 2026-10-07 10:05 UTC
Model: relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation: passed
Causal level: candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived

Statistical surprise0.96 × 0.18 = 0.173

Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120

Breadth0.25 × 0.16 = 0.040

Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000

Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14

Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10

Historical rarity0.00 × 0.08 = 0.000

Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04

Relevance0.333

Statistical surprise: the latest change of -4.74 index 1982-1984=100 is -4.8 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (832 earlier changes), at the 87th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.96, weight 0.18, contribution 0.173.
Acceleration: second-difference z 14.1; short-versus-long slope divergence -17.87. Component 1.00, weight 0.12, contribution 0.120.
Breadth: 1 of 4 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 3 moved the other way. Component 0.25, weight 0.16, contribution 0.040.
Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
Historical rarity: the last larger move was 1 periods ago, in 2026-06-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.00, weight 0.08, contribution 0.000.
Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.333, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US consumer price index, energy, United States, is 314.55 index 1982-1984=100 for 2026-07-01 (obs 239965). The previous period, 2026-06-01, recorded 319.29 index 1982-1984=100 (obs 239966). The change is -4.74 index 1982-1984=100, or -1.48%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 832 earlier monthly changes since 1957-01-01, the median change is +0.1 index 1982-1984=100 and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 1.01, giving a robust z-score of -4.8. The absolute change sits at the 87th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was -19.35 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-06-01 (obs 239966, obs 239967), 1 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +14.61 index 1982-1984=100, a robust z of 14.1 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -12.04 index 1982-1984=100 per period against +5.92 over the last 10, a divergence of -17.87 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled

Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run bbbf712c-e674-4a13-8320-7d5e672ac113. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:239965] records the July 2026 value at 314.553 index 1982-1984=100 for the United States. Observation [observation:239966] records the June 2026 value at 319.29 index 1982-1984=100. Observation [observation:239967] records the May 2026 value at 338.639 index 1982-1984=100. The data are consistent with a month-over-month decline. No evidence marks a causal link to other series such as electricity retail prices in [observation:245923] or net generation in [observation:245396].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal monthly variation in the index series.

Why now

The July 2026 observation [observation:239965] became available for the period ending 2026-07-01, coinciding with the reported decline against the prior month value in [observation:239966].

What to watch

Subsequent monthly readings of the US consumer price index for energy as in [observation:239965], average retail electricity price as in [observation:245923], and electricity net generation as in [observation:245396].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

Metric	Latest	Change	Evidence
US average retail electricity pricecategory	13.83 cents per kilowatthour (2026-05-01)	-0.05 (-0.36%)	obs 245923, obs 245922

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

3 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

US electric net summer capacity: +7.18 million kilowatts (+0.55%) to 1,304.57 million kilowatts in 2026-05-01 (obs 241167, obs 241166)
US electricity net generation: +23,984.01 million kilowatthours (+7.25%) to 354,690.53 million kilowatthours in 2026-05-01 (obs 245396, obs 245395)
US primary energy consumption: +107.86 trillion Btu (+1.48%) to 7,414.83 trillion Btu in 2026-05-01 (obs 248499, obs 248498)

1 related metric has no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

US electric net summer capacity moved against this insight.
US electricity net generation moved against this insight.
US primary energy consumption moved against this insight.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

The next US consumer price index, energy observation (2026-08-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of +0.1 index 1982-1984=100, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
US average retail electricity price, currently 13.83 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-05-01 (obs 245923): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
Revisions: a revised 2026-07-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 239965) and trigger a rescore.
Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.

Evidence

Every number links here

Observed

Observation	Metric	Period	Value	Role	Series	Ingested
239965	US consumer price index, energyUSA	2026-07-01	314.55 index 1982-1984=100	primary	CUSR0000SA0E	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
239966	US consumer price index, energyUSA	2026-06-01	319.29 index 1982-1984=100	primary	CUSR0000SA0E	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
239967	US consumer price index, energyUSA	2026-05-01	338.64 index 1982-1984=100	context	CUSR0000SA0E	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
239484	US consumer price index, energyUSA	1957-01-01	21.3 index 1982-1984=100	context	CUSR0000SA0E	2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
34846	Population with access to electricityUSA	2024	100 percent of population	context	EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS	2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847	Population with access to electricityUSA	2023	100 percent of population	context	EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS	2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
245923	US average retail electricity priceUSA	2026-05-01	13.83 cents per kilowatthour	supporting	ESTCUUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245922	US average retail electricity priceUSA	2026-04-01	13.88 cents per kilowatthour	supporting	ESTCUUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
241167	US electric net summer capacityUSA	2026-05-01	1,304.57 million kilowatts	counter	ELGBPUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
241166	US electric net summer capacityUSA	2026-04-01	1,297.39 million kilowatts	counter	ELGBPUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245396	US electricity net generationUSA	2026-05-01	354,690.53 million kilowatthours	counter	ELETPUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245395	US electricity net generationUSA	2026-04-01	330,706.52 million kilowatthours	counter	ELETPUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
248499	US primary energy consumptionUSA	2026-05-01	7,414.83 trillion Btu	counter	TETCBUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
248498	US primary energy consumptionUSA	2026-04-01	7,306.97 trillion Btu	counter	TETCBUS	2026-09-07 09:54 UTC

Feature packet (full inputs to the score)

{
  "as_of": "2026-07-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.014836,
    "value": -4.737,
    "observation_ids": [
      239965,
      239966
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 239965,
    "value": 314.553,
    "period": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
    "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
    "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 239967,
      "value": 338.639,
      "period": "2026-05-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 239484,
      "value": 21.3,
      "period": "1957-01-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 4.737,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": -19.349,
      "period": "2026-06-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        239966,
        239967
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 1
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.0029,
    "breadth": 0.25,
    "surprise": 0.9596,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 1,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.25,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US average retail electricity price",
        "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
        "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
        "change": -0.05,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245923,
          "value": 13.83,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245922,
          "value": 13.88,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
        "change_pct": -0.003602,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 7.176,
        "latest": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241166,
          "value": 1297.391,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.005531,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 23984.006,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245395,
          "value": 330706.52,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.072524,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US primary energy consumption",
        "slug": "us-primary-energy-consumption",
        "unit": "trillion Btu",
        "change": 107.859,
        "latest": {
          "id": 248499,
          "value": 7414.832,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 248498,
          "value": 7306.973,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "94568d06-0d57-46b5-9a49-897b922dd51e",
        "change_pct": 0.014761,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      }
    ],
    "opposite": 3,
    "comparable": 4,
    "consistent": 1
  },
  "history": {
    "count": 834,
    "last_period": "2026-07-01",
    "change_count": 833,
    "first_period": "1957-01-01"
  },
  "version": "features_v1",
  "previous": {
    "id": 239966,
    "value": 319.29,
    "period": "2026-06-01"
  },
  "surprise": {
    "note": null,
    "scale": 1.005203,
    "robust_z": -4.812,
    "mad_change": 0.678,
    "change_count": 832,
    "scale_method": "mad",
    "median_change": 0.1,
    "value_percentile": 0.9952,
    "abs_change_percentile": 0.8654
  },
  "geography": {
    "id": "47c911a6-27c0-47d8-9471-9ac075e5be26",
    "code": "USA",
    "name": "United States"
  },
  "centrality": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "none",
    "entity_ids": [],
    "entity_slugs": []
  },
  "acceleration": {
    "note": null,
    "long_slope": 5.9192,
    "long_window": 10,
    "short_slope": -12.043,
    "short_window": 3,
    "slope_divergence": -17.8692,
    "second_difference": 14.612,
    "second_difference_z": 14.0795,
    "long_observation_ids": [
      239974,
      239973,
      239972,
      239971,
      239970,
      239969,
      239968,
      239967,
      239966,
      239965
    ],
    "short_observation_ids": [
      239967,
      239966,
      239965
    ]
  },
  "series_window": [
    {
      "id": 240004,
      "value": 282.868,
      "period": "2023-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 240003,
      "value": 280.86,
      "period": "2023-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 240002,
      "value": 274.273,
      "period": "2023-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 240001,
      "value": 275.712,
      "period": "2023-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 240000,
      "value": 275.548,
      "period": "2023-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239999,
      "value": 287.31,
      "period": "2023-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239998,
      "value": 292.623,
      "period": "2023-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239997,
      "value": 286.765,
      "period": "2023-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239996,
      "value": 282.146,
      "period": "2023-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239995,
      "value": 280.763,
      "period": "2023-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239994,
      "value": 279.953,
      "period": "2024-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239993,
      "value": 283.331,
      "period": "2024-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239992,
      "value": 288.688,
      "period": "2024-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239991,
      "value": 287.611,
      "period": "2024-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239990,
      "value": 284.165,
      "period": "2024-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239989,
      "value": 278.284,
      "period": "2024-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239988,
      "value": 278.287,
      "period": "2024-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239987,
      "value": 275.706,
      "period": "2024-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239986,
      "value": 272.681,
      "period": "2024-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239985,
      "value": 273.003,
      "period": "2024-10-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239984,
      "value": 273.281,
      "period": "2024-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239983,
      "value": 279.829,
      "period": "2024-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239982,
      "value": 282.272,
      "period": "2025-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239981,
      "value": 282.096,
      "period": "2025-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239980,
      "value": 278.906,
      "period": "2025-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239979,
      "value": 277.343,
      "period": "2025-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239978,
      "value": 275.377,
      "period": "2025-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239977,
      "value": 276.558,
      "period": "2025-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239976,
      "value": 274.85,
      "period": "2025-07-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239975,
      "value": 276.734,
      "period": "2025-08-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239974,
      "value": 280.7,
      "period": "2025-09-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239973,
      "value": 284.648,
      "period": "2025-11-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239972,
      "value": 285.624,
      "period": "2025-12-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239971,
      "value": 281.436,
      "period": "2026-01-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239970,
      "value": 283.223,
      "period": "2026-02-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239969,
      "value": 314.019,
      "period": "2026-03-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239968,
      "value": 325.978,
      "period": "2026-04-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239967,
      "value": 338.639,
      "period": "2026-05-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239966,
      "value": 319.29,
      "period": "2026-06-01"
    },
    {
      "id": 239965,
      "value": 314.553,
      "period": "2026-07-01"
    }
  ],
  "forecast_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "public_attention": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
    "value": 0,
    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.