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US consumer price index, energy · United States · as of 2026-09-01

US consumer price index, energy (United States) rose 5.20% in 2026-09-01, an unusually large monthly move

US consumer price index, energy for United States was 337.83 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01, up 16.69 index 1982-1984=100 (+5.20%) from 321.15 in 2026-08-01; that change ranks in the 99th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1957-01-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US consumer price index, energy

337.83index 1982-1984=100+5.20%
Latest
337.83 in 2026-09-01 obs 415394
Previous
321.15 in 2026-08-01 obs 409142
Change
+16.69 index 1982-1984=100
History
836 observations, 1957-01-01 to 2026-09-01
40 points, 2023-05-01 to 2026-09-01
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
16.07
Change percentile
99th of 834 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
100th of earlier values
Median change
0.1 (scale 1.03, mad)
Second difference
10.09 (z 9.72)
Slope divergence
5.80
Rarity
last larger move 3 periods ago (2026-06-01)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.371
Confidence
61%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-10-19 00:20 UTC
Expires
2026-11-18 00:20 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise1.00 × 0.18 = 0.179
Acceleration1.00 × 0.12 = 0.120
Breadth0.44 × 0.16 = 0.071
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.01 × 0.08 = 0.001
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.371
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of +16.69 index 1982-1984=100 is 16.1 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (834 earlier changes), at the 99th percentile of absolute changes. Component 1.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.179.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z 9.7; short-versus-long slope divergence 5.80. Component 1.00, weight 0.12, contribution 0.120.
  • Breadth: 8 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 10 moved the other way. Component 0.44, weight 0.16, contribution 0.071.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 3 periods ago, in 2026-06-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.01, weight 0.08, contribution 0.001.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.371, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US consumer price index, energy, United States, is 337.83 index 1982-1984=100 for 2026-09-01 (obs 415394). The previous period, 2026-08-01, recorded 321.15 index 1982-1984=100 (obs 409142). The change is +16.69 index 1982-1984=100, or +5.20%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 834 earlier monthly changes since 1957-01-01, the median change is +0.1 index 1982-1984=100 and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 1.03, giving a robust z-score of 16.1. The absolute change sits at the 99th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was -19.35 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-06-01 (obs 239966, obs 239967), 3 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +10.09 index 1982-1984=100, a robust z of 9.7 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +11.64 index 1982-1984=100 per period against +5.65 over the last 10, a divergence of 5.80 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run b2744729-3cea-40d6-92a4-0c61eaea0001. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:415394] records the September 2026 value of 337.834. Observation [observation:409142] records the August 2026 value of 321.148. Earlier observations include 319.29 in June 2026 [observation:239966] and 338.639 in May 2026 [observation:239967]. The data are consistent with an unusually large monthly move relative to recent periods.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal index volatility around seasonal patterns.

Why now

The September 2026 reading became available and differs from the immediately preceding observation.

What to watch

Subsequent values of the US consumer price index for energy [observation:415394] and related series such as natural gas futures positions [observation:415616].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Natural gas futures: managed-money net positioncategory-126,481 contracts (2026-10-13)+18,056 (+12.49%)obs 415616, obs 411275
US average retail electricity pricecategory14.48 cents per kilowatthour (2026-06-01)+0.65 (+4.70%)obs 410784, obs 245923
US electric net summer capacitycategory1,310.44 million kilowatts (2026-06-01)+5.88 (+0.45%)obs 410776, obs 241167
US electricity net generationcategory399,671.29 million kilowatthours (2026-06-01)+44,980.76 (+12.68%)obs 410783, obs 245396
US generation capacity additions, natural gascategory228.4 MW (2026-08-01)+218.4 (+2184.00%)obs 410646, obs 399704
US generation capacity additions, windcategory569.5 MW (2026-08-01)+569.5obs 410675, obs 403808
US planned generation retirementscategory20 MW (2072-08-01)+18.8 (+1566.67%)obs 403974, obs 403973
US primary energy consumptioncategory7,702.12 trillion Btu (2026-06-01)+273.98 (+3.69%)obs 410806, obs 410805

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

10 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • US generation capacity additions: -135.4 MW (-4.54%) to 2,849.2 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410638, obs 410637)
  • US generation capacity additions, battery storage: -364.3 MW (-32.89%) to 743.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410640, obs 398336)
  • US generation capacity additions, solar: -574 MW (-30.75%) to 1,292.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410672, obs 410671)
  • US planned generation capacity: -2,594 MW (-0.89%) to 288,543.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410680, obs 403873)
  • US planned generation capacity, battery storage: -859.1 MW (-1.32%) to 64,402.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410676, obs 403821)
  • US planned generation capacity, natural gas: -228.4 MW (-0.33%) to 69,448.1 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410677, obs 403834)
  • US planned generation capacity, solar: -921.5 MW (-0.75%) to 122,259.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410679, obs 403860)
  • US planned generation capacity, wind: -569.5 MW (-2.34%) to 23,753.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410681, obs 403886)
  • US regular gasoline retail price: -0.023 US dollars per gallon (-0.53%) to 4.33 US dollars per gallon in 2026-10-12 (obs 415540, obs 411239)
  • WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net position: -13,024 contracts (-24.30%) to 40,574 contracts in 2026-10-13 (obs 415614, obs 411273)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US consumer price index, energy observation (2026-10-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of +0.1 index 1982-1984=100, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position, currently -126,481 contracts in 2026-10-13 (obs 415616): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US average retail electricity price, currently 14.48 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-06-01 (obs 410784): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electric net summer capacity, currently 1,310.44 million kilowatts in 2026-06-01 (obs 410776): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-09-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 415394) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
415394US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-09-01337.83 index 1982-1984=100primaryCUSR0000SA0E2026-10-19 00:01 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100primaryCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
239966US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-06-01319.29 index 1982-1984=100contextCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
239967US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-05-01338.64 index 1982-1984=100contextCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
239484US consumer price index, energyUSA1957-01-0121.3 index 1982-1984=100contextCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
415616Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-13-126,481 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-19 00:15 UTC
411275Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-06-144,537 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-12 00:05 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
410784US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-06-0114.48 cents per kilowatthoursupportingESTCUUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthoursupportingESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410776US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-06-011,310.44 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
241167US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-05-011,304.57 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410783US electricity net generationUSA2026-06-01399,671.29 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245396US electricity net generationUSA2026-05-01354,690.53 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410638US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-08-012,849.2 MWcounteradditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410637US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-07-012,984.6 MWcounteradditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410640US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-08-01743.4 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
398336US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-07-011,107.7 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410646US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-08-01228.4 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
399704US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-07-0110 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410662US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-08-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
401072US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-07-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410672US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-08-011,292.9 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410671US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-07-011,866.9 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410675US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-08-01569.5 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
403808US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-07-010 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410680US planned generation capacityUSA2026-08-01288,543.9 MWcounterplanned:total2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403873US planned generation capacityUSA2026-07-01291,137.9 MWcounterplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410676US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-08-0164,402.9 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403821US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-07-0165,262 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410677US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-08-0169,448.1 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403834US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-07-0169,676.5 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410678US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-08-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403847US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-07-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410679US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-08-01122,259.4 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403860US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-07-01123,180.9 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410681US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-08-0123,753.9 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403886US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-07-0124,323.4 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410806US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-06-017,702.12 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410805US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-05-017,428.14 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
415540US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-10-124.33 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-10-19 00:14 UTC
411239US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-10-054.35 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
415614WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-1340,574 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-19 00:15 UTC
411273WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-0653,598 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-12 00:05 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-09-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.051957,
    "value": 16.686,
    "observation_ids": [
      415394,
      409142
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 415394,
    "value": 337.834,
    "period": "2026-09-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
    "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
    "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 239967,
      "value": 338.639,
      "period": "2026-05-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 239484,
      "value": 21.3,
      "period": "1957-01-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 16.686,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": -19.349,
      "period": "2026-06-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        239966,
        239967
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 3
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.0087,
    "breadth": 0.4444,
    "surprise": 0.9957,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 1,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.4444,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": 18056,
        "latest": {
          "id": 415616,
          "value": -126481,
          "period": "2026-10-13"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 411275,
          "value": -144537,
          "period": "2026-10-06"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": 0.124923,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US average retail electricity price",
        "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
        "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
        "change": 0.65,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410784,
          "value": 14.48,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245923,
          "value": 13.83,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
        "change_pct": 0.046999,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 5.877,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410776,
          "value": 1310.444,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.004505,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 44980.759,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410783,
          "value": 399671.285,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.126817,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -135.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410638,
          "value": 2849.2,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410637,
          "value": 2984.6,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
        "change_pct": -0.045366,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -364.3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410640,
          "value": 743.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 398336,
          "value": 1107.7,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": -0.32888,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 218.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410646,
          "value": 228.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 399704,
          "value": 10,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": 21.84,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410662,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 401072,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -574,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410672,
          "value": 1292.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410671,
          "value": 1866.9,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": -0.307462,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, wind",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-wind",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 569.5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410675,
          "value": 569.5,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 403808,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "e1eff007-cb80-4eab-a953-e0f4c0e1176b",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US planned generation capacity",
        "slug": "us-planned-generation-capacity-total",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -2594,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410680,
          "value": 288543.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
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  "bottleneck_impact": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

47 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 650 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).