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US average retail electricity price · United States · as of 2026-06-01

US average retail electricity price (United States) rose 4.70% in 2026-06-01, an unusually large monthly move

US average retail electricity price for United States was 14.48 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-06-01, up 0.65 cents per kilowatthour (+4.70%) from 13.83 in 2026-05-01; that change ranks in the 99th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1976-07-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US average retail electricity price

14.48cents per kilowatthour+4.70%
Latest
14.48 in 2026-06-01 obs 410784
Previous
13.83 in 2026-05-01 obs 245923
Change
+0.65 cents per kilowatthour
History
528 observations, 1976-07-01 to 2026-06-01
40 points, 2023-03-01 to 2026-06-01
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
4.18
Change percentile
99th of 526 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
100th of earlier values
Median change
0 (scale 0.1557, mad)
Second difference
0.7 (z 3.63)
Slope divergence
1.65
Rarity
last larger move 12 periods ago (2025-06-01); new series high
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.360
Confidence
59%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-10-05 00:09 UTC
Expires
2026-11-04 00:09 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise1.00 × 0.18 = 0.179
Acceleration0.76 × 0.12 = 0.092
Breadth0.39 × 0.16 = 0.062
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.34 × 0.08 = 0.027
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.360
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of +0.65 cents per kilowatthour is 4.2 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (526 earlier changes), at the 99th percentile of absolute changes. Component 1.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.179.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z 3.6; short-versus-long slope divergence 1.65. Component 0.76, weight 0.12, contribution 0.092.
  • Breadth: 7 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 11 moved the other way. Component 0.39, weight 0.16, contribution 0.062.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 12 periods ago, in 2025-06-01; the value is a new series high (window 20 years). Component 0.34, weight 0.08, contribution 0.027.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.360, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US average retail electricity price, United States, is 14.48 cents per kilowatthour for 2026-06-01 (obs 410784). The previous period, 2026-05-01, recorded 13.83 cents per kilowatthour (obs 245923). The change is +0.65 cents per kilowatthour, or +4.70%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 526 earlier monthly changes since 1976-07-01, the median change is 0 cents per kilowatthour and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 0.1557, giving a robust z-score of 4.2. The absolute change sits at the 99th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +0.73 cents per kilowatthour in 2025-06-01 (obs 245912, obs 245911), 12 periods ago. The value is a new high for the series, above 14.36 cents per kilowatthour in 2025-07-01 (obs 245913).

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +0.7 cents per kilowatthour, a robust z of 3.6 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +0.3 cents per kilowatthour per period against +0.0431 over the last 10, a divergence of 1.65 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 85cb826d-cce7-4aa7-b757-49e726fa63d7. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

The data record an observed US average retail electricity price of 14.48 cents per kilowatthour on 2026-06-01 [observation:410784] against 13.83 cents per kilowatthour on 2026-05-01 [observation:245923]. The data are consistent with a monthly change of 0.65 cents per kilowatthour. Prior observations include 13.86 cents per kilowatthour in June 2025 [observation:245912] and 13.13 cents per kilowatthour in May 2025 [observation:245911].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal seasonal variation around the observed June 2025 level of 13.86 cents per kilowatthour [observation:245912].

Why now

The metric registers a surprise_robust_z of 4.1754 and periods_since_larger_move of 12, placing the June 2026 reading outside recent monthly ranges.

What to watch

Subsequent monthly observations of US average retail electricity price [observation:410784] and related series such as US consumer price index energy [observation:409142].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
US consumer price index, energycategory321.15 index 1982-1984=100 (2026-08-01)+6.6 (+2.10%)obs 409142, obs 239965
US electric net summer capacitycategory1,310.44 million kilowatts (2026-06-01)+5.88 (+0.45%)obs 410776, obs 241167
US electricity net generationcategory399,671.29 million kilowatthours (2026-06-01)+44,980.76 (+12.68%)obs 410783, obs 245396
US generation capacity additions, natural gascategory228.4 MW (2026-08-01)+218.4 (+2184.00%)obs 410646, obs 399704
US generation capacity additions, windcategory569.5 MW (2026-08-01)+569.5obs 410675, obs 403808
US planned generation retirementscategory20 MW (2072-08-01)+18.8 (+1566.67%)obs 403974, obs 403973
US primary energy consumptioncategory7,702.12 trillion Btu (2026-06-01)+273.98 (+3.69%)obs 410806, obs 410805

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

11 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position: -67,252 contracts (-102.60%) to -132,799 contracts in 2026-09-29 (obs 411182, obs 410568)
  • US generation capacity additions: -135.4 MW (-4.54%) to 2,849.2 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410638, obs 410637)
  • US generation capacity additions, battery storage: -364.3 MW (-32.89%) to 743.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410640, obs 398336)
  • US generation capacity additions, solar: -574 MW (-30.75%) to 1,292.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410672, obs 410671)
  • US planned generation capacity: -2,594 MW (-0.89%) to 288,543.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410680, obs 403873)
  • US planned generation capacity, battery storage: -859.1 MW (-1.32%) to 64,402.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410676, obs 403821)
  • US planned generation capacity, natural gas: -228.4 MW (-0.33%) to 69,448.1 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410677, obs 403834)
  • US planned generation capacity, solar: -921.5 MW (-0.75%) to 122,259.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410679, obs 403860)
  • US planned generation capacity, wind: -569.5 MW (-2.34%) to 23,753.9 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410681, obs 403886)
  • US regular gasoline retail price: -0.013 US dollars per gallon (-0.29%) to 4.47 US dollars per gallon in 2026-09-28 (obs 410818, obs 410508)
  • WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net position: -22,236 contracts (-21.84%) to 79,592 contracts in 2026-09-29 (obs 411180, obs 410566)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US average retail electricity price observation (2026-07-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of 0 cents per kilowatthour, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • US consumer price index, energy, currently 321.15 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-08-01 (obs 409142): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electric net summer capacity, currently 1,310.44 million kilowatts in 2026-06-01 (obs 410776): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electricity net generation, currently 399,671.29 million kilowatthours in 2026-06-01 (obs 410783): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-06-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 410784) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
410784US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-06-0114.48 cents per kilowatthourprimaryESTCUUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthourprimaryESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245912US average retail electricity priceUSA2025-06-0113.86 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245911US average retail electricity priceUSA2025-05-0113.13 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245913US average retail electricity priceUSA2025-07-0114.36 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245397US average retail electricity priceUSA1976-07-013 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
411182Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-29-132,799 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-05 00:04 UTC
410568Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-22-65,547 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-09-28 00:05 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
239965US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-07-01314.55 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
410776US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-06-011,310.44 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
241167US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-05-011,304.57 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410783US electricity net generationUSA2026-06-01399,671.29 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245396US electricity net generationUSA2026-05-01354,690.53 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410638US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-08-012,849.2 MWcounteradditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410637US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-07-012,984.6 MWcounteradditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410640US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-08-01743.4 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
398336US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-07-011,107.7 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410646US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-08-01228.4 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
399704US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-07-0110 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410662US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-08-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
401072US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-07-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410672US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-08-011,292.9 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410671US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-07-011,866.9 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410675US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-08-01569.5 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
403808US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-07-010 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410680US planned generation capacityUSA2026-08-01288,543.9 MWcounterplanned:total2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403873US planned generation capacityUSA2026-07-01291,137.9 MWcounterplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410676US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-08-0164,402.9 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403821US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-07-0165,262 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410677US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-08-0169,448.1 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403834US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-07-0169,676.5 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410678US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-08-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403847US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-07-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410679US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-08-01122,259.4 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403860US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-07-01123,180.9 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410681US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-08-0123,753.9 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403886US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-07-0124,323.4 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410806US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-06-017,702.12 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410805US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-05-017,428.14 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410818US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-284.47 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410508US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-214.48 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-09-28 00:04 UTC
411180WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-2979,592 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-05 00:04 UTC
410566WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-22101,828 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-09-28 00:05 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-06-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.046999,
    "value": 0.65,
    "observation_ids": [
      410784,
      245923
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 410784,
    "value": 14.48,
    "period": "2026-06-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US average retail electricity price",
    "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
    "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 245913,
      "value": 14.36,
      "period": "2025-07-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 245397,
      "value": 3,
      "period": "1976-07-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 0.65,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": true,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 0.73,
      "period": "2025-06-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        245912,
        245911
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 12
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.335,
    "breadth": 0.3889,
    "surprise": 0.9969,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.7648,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.3889,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -67252,
        "latest": {
          "id": 411182,
          "value": -132799,
          "period": "2026-09-29"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410568,
          "value": -65547,
          "period": "2026-09-22"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": -1.026012,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
        "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
        "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
        "change": 6.595,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409142,
          "value": 321.148,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 239965,
          "value": 314.553,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
        "change_pct": 0.020966,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 5.877,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410776,
          "value": 1310.444,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.004505,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 44980.759,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410783,
          "value": 399671.285,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.126817,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -135.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410638,
          "value": 2849.2,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410637,
          "value": 2984.6,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
        "change_pct": -0.045366,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -364.3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410640,
          "value": 743.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 398336,
          "value": 1107.7,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": -0.32888,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 218.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410646,
          "value": 228.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 399704,
          "value": 10,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": 21.84,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410662,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 401072,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -574,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410672,
          "value": 1292.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410671,
          "value": 1866.9,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": -0.307462,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, wind",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-wind",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 569.5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410675,
          "value": 569.5,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 403808,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
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  "history": {
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  },
  "acceleration": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

48 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 409 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).