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US average retail electricity price · United States · as of 2026-07-01

US average retail electricity price (United States) rose 3.52% in 2026-07-01, an unusually large monthly move

US average retail electricity price for United States was 14.99 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-07-01, up 0.51 cents per kilowatthour (+3.52%) from 14.48 in 2026-06-01; that change ranks in the 97th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1976-07-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US average retail electricity price

14.99cents per kilowatthour+3.52%
Latest
14.99 in 2026-07-01 obs 420867
Previous
14.48 in 2026-06-01 obs 410784
Change
+0.51 cents per kilowatthour
History
529 observations, 1976-07-01 to 2026-07-01
40 points, 2023-04-01 to 2026-07-01
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
3.13
Change percentile
97th of 527 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
100th of earlier values
Median change
0 (scale 0.1631, mad)
Second difference
-0.14 (z -0.73)
Slope divergence
2.86
Rarity
last larger move 1 periods ago (2026-06-01); new series high
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.332
Confidence
66%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-11-02 00:10 UTC
Expires
2026-12-02 00:10 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.84 × 0.18 = 0.151
Acceleration0.49 × 0.12 = 0.059
Breadth0.61 × 0.16 = 0.098
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.30 × 0.08 = 0.024
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.332
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of +0.51 cents per kilowatthour is 3.1 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (527 earlier changes), at the 97th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.84, weight 0.18, contribution 0.151.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -0.7; short-versus-long slope divergence 2.86. Component 0.49, weight 0.12, contribution 0.059.
  • Breadth: 11 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 7 moved the other way. Component 0.61, weight 0.16, contribution 0.098.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 1 periods ago, in 2026-06-01; the value is a new series high (window 20 years). Component 0.30, weight 0.08, contribution 0.024.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.332, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US average retail electricity price, United States, is 14.99 cents per kilowatthour for 2026-07-01 (obs 420867). The previous period, 2026-06-01, recorded 14.48 cents per kilowatthour (obs 410784). The change is +0.51 cents per kilowatthour, or +3.52%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 527 earlier monthly changes since 1976-07-01, the median change is 0 cents per kilowatthour and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 0.1631, giving a robust z-score of 3.1. The absolute change sits at the 97th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 100th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +0.65 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-06-01 (obs 410784, obs 245923), 1 periods ago. The value is a new high for the series, above 14.48 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-06-01 (obs 410784).

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -0.14 cents per kilowatthour, a robust z of -0.7 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +0.58 cents per kilowatthour per period against +0.1132 over the last 10, a divergence of 2.86 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run a95665ba-5d93-4fd1-857b-093eb0a761fa. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:420867] records 14.99 cents per kilowatthour on 2026-07-01. Observation [observation:410784] records 14.48 cents per kilowatthour on 2026-06-01. Observation [observation:245923] records 13.83 cents per kilowatthour on 2026-05-01. The data are consistent with an increase between the June and July observations.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The model estimates the move as part of normal variation around the recent series.

Why now

The July 2026 observation follows the June value and shows a larger month-to-month difference than the prior interval.

What to watch

Subsequent monthly values of US average retail electricity price as in [observation:420867] and [observation:410784].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
US consumer price index, energycategory337.83 index 1982-1984=100 (2026-09-01)+16.69 (+5.20%)obs 415394, obs 409142
US electric net summer capacitycategory1,314.31 million kilowatts (2026-07-01)+3.86 (+0.29%)obs 420859, obs 410776
US electricity net generationcategory453,744.4 million kilowatthours (2026-07-01)+54,073.11 (+13.53%)obs 420866, obs 410783
US generation capacity additionscategory5,185.4 MW (2026-09-01)+2,112.2 (+68.73%)obs 420773, obs 420772
US generation capacity additions, battery storagecategory1,511.7 MW (2026-09-01)+668.3 (+79.24%)obs 420777, obs 420776
US generation capacity additions, natural gascategory594 MW (2026-09-01)+365.6 (+160.07%)obs 420789, obs 410646
US generation capacity additions, solarcategory2,825.9 MW (2026-09-01)+1,409 (+99.44%)obs 420817, obs 420816
US planned generation capacitycategory290,242 MW (2026-09-01)+1,698.1 (+0.59%)obs 420824, obs 410680
US planned generation capacity, natural gascategory71,102.5 MW (2026-09-01)+1,654.4 (+2.38%)obs 420821, obs 410677
US planned generation retirementscategory20 MW (2072-08-01)+18.8 (+1566.67%)obs 403974, obs 403973
US primary energy consumptioncategory8,334.71 trillion Btu (2026-07-01)+628.04 (+8.15%)obs 420890, obs 420889

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

7 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position: -48,908 contracts (-31.07%) to -206,317 contracts in 2026-10-27 (obs 421004, obs 420696)
  • US generation capacity additions, wind: -358.7 MW (-62.99%) to 210.8 MW in 2026-09-01 (obs 420819, obs 410675)
  • US planned generation capacity, battery storage: -168.3 MW (-0.26%) to 64,234.6 MW in 2026-09-01 (obs 420820, obs 410676)
  • US planned generation capacity, solar: -34.2 MW (-0.03%) to 122,225.2 MW in 2026-09-01 (obs 420823, obs 410679)
  • US planned generation capacity, wind: -210.8 MW (-0.89%) to 23,543.1 MW in 2026-09-01 (obs 420825, obs 410681)
  • US regular gasoline retail price: -0.015 US dollars per gallon (-0.35%) to 4.27 US dollars per gallon in 2026-10-26 (obs 420899, obs 420653)
  • WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net position: -5,059 contracts (-13.98%) to 31,128 contracts in 2026-10-27 (obs 421002, obs 420694)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US average retail electricity price observation (2026-08-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of 0 cents per kilowatthour, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • US consumer price index, energy, currently 337.83 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-09-01 (obs 415394): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electric net summer capacity, currently 1,314.31 million kilowatts in 2026-07-01 (obs 420859): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electricity net generation, currently 453,744.4 million kilowatthours in 2026-07-01 (obs 420866): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-07-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 420867) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
420867US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-07-0114.99 cents per kilowatthourprimaryESTCUUS2026-11-02 00:03 UTC
410784US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-06-0114.48 cents per kilowatthourprimaryESTCUUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245397US average retail electricity priceUSA1976-07-013 cents per kilowatthourcontextESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
421004Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-27-206,317 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420696Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-20-157,409 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-26 00:04 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
415394US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-09-01337.83 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-10-19 00:01 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
420859US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-07-011,314.31 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-11-02 00:01 UTC
410776US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-06-011,310.44 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
420866US electricity net generationUSA2026-07-01453,744.4 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-11-02 00:03 UTC
410783US electricity net generationUSA2026-06-01399,671.29 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
420773US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-09-015,185.4 MWsupportingadditions:total2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420772US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-08-013,073.2 MWsupportingadditions:total2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420777US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-09-011,511.7 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420776US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-08-01843.4 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420789US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-09-01594 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
410646US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-08-01228.4 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
420805US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-09-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
410662US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-08-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
420817US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-09-012,825.9 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420816US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-08-011,416.9 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
420819US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-09-01210.8 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-11-01 00:00 UTC
410675US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-08-01569.5 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
420824US planned generation capacityUSA2026-09-01290,242 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410680US planned generation capacityUSA2026-08-01288,543.9 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
420820US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-09-0164,234.6 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410676US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-08-0164,402.9 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
420821US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-09-0171,102.5 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410677US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-08-0169,448.1 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
420822US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-09-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410678US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-08-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
420823US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-09-01122,225.2 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410679US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-08-01122,259.4 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
420825US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-09-0123,543.1 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-11-01 00:01 UTC
410681US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-08-0123,753.9 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
420890US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-07-018,334.71 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-11-02 00:03 UTC
420889US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-06-017,706.67 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-11-02 00:03 UTC
420899US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-10-264.27 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420653US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-10-194.28 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-10-26 00:03 UTC
421002WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-2731,128 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-11-02 00:04 UTC
420694WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-2036,187 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-26 00:04 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-07-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.035221,
    "value": 0.51,
    "observation_ids": [
      420867,
      410784
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 420867,
    "value": 14.99,
    "period": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US average retail electricity price",
    "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
    "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 410784,
      "value": 14.48,
      "period": "2026-06-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 245397,
      "value": 3,
      "period": "1976-07-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 0.51,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": true,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 0.65,
      "period": "2026-06-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        410784,
        245923
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 1
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.3029,
    "breadth": 0.6111,
    "surprise": 0.8384,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.4906,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.6111,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -48908,
        "latest": {
          "id": 421004,
          "value": -206317,
          "period": "2026-10-27"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 420696,
          "value": -157409,
          "period": "2026-10-20"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": -0.310707,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
        "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
        "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
        "change": 16.686,
        "latest": {
          "id": 415394,
          "value": 337.834,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 409142,
          "value": 321.148,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
        "change_pct": 0.051957,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 3.861,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420859,
          "value": 1314.305,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410776,
          "value": 1310.444,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.002946,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 54073.113,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420866,
          "value": 453744.398,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410783,
          "value": 399671.285,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.135294,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 2112.2,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420773,
          "value": 5185.4,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 420772,
          "value": 3073.2,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
        "change_pct": 0.687297,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 668.3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420777,
          "value": 1511.7,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 420776,
          "value": 843.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": 0.792388,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 365.6,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420789,
          "value": 594,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410646,
          "value": 228.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": 1.600701,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420805,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410662,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 1409,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420817,
          "value": 2825.9,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 420816,
          "value": 1416.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": 0.994424,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, wind",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-wind",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -358.7,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420819,
          "value": 210.8,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410675,
          "value": 569.5,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "e1eff007-cb80-4eab-a953-e0f4c0e1176b",
        "change_pct": -0.629851,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US planned generation capacity",
        "slug": "us-planned-generation-capacity-total",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 1698.1,
        "latest": {
          "id": 420824,
          "value": 290242,
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    ],
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  "history": {
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  "centrality": {
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  },
  "acceleration": {
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  "public_attention": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

46 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 889 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).