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US regular gasoline retail price · United States · as of 2026-09-07

US regular gasoline retail price (United States) rose 2.11% in 2026-09-07, an unusually large annual move

US regular gasoline retail price for United States was 4.16 US dollars per gallon in 2026-09-07, up 0.086 US dollars per gallon (+2.11%) from 4.07 in 2026-08-31; that change ranks in the 93rd percentile of annual changes recorded since 1990-08-20.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US regular gasoline retail price

4.16US dollars per gallon+2.11%
Latest
4.16 in 2026-09-07 obs 409150
Previous
4.07 in 2026-08-31 obs 395600
Change
+0.086 US dollars per gallon
History
1876 observations, 1990-08-20 to 2026-09-07
40 points, 2025-12-08 to 2026-09-07
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
3.12
Change percentile
93rd of 1874 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
99th of earlier values
Median change
-0.002 (scale 0.0282, mad)
Second difference
0.1 (z 3.93)
Slope divergence
0.17
Rarity
last larger move 6 periods ago (2026-07-27)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.337
Confidence
66%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-09-14 00:12 UTC
Expires
2026-10-14 00:12 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.83 × 0.18 = 0.149
Acceleration0.61 × 0.12 = 0.073
Breadth0.61 × 0.16 = 0.098
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.21 × 0.08 = 0.017
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.337
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of +0.086 US dollars per gallon is 3.1 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (1874 earlier changes), at the 93rd percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.83, weight 0.18, contribution 0.149.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z 3.9; short-versus-long slope divergence 0.17. Component 0.61, weight 0.12, contribution 0.073.
  • Breadth: 11 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 7 moved the other way. Component 0.61, weight 0.16, contribution 0.098.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 6 periods ago, in 2026-07-27 (window 20 years). Component 0.21, weight 0.08, contribution 0.017.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.337, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US regular gasoline retail price, United States, is 4.16 US dollars per gallon for 2026-09-07 (obs 409150). The previous period, 2026-08-31, recorded 4.07 US dollars per gallon (obs 395600). The change is +0.086 US dollars per gallon, or +2.11%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1874 earlier annual changes since 1990-08-20, the median change is -0.002 US dollars per gallon and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 0.0282, giving a robust z-score of 3.1. The absolute change sits at the 93rd percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 99th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +0.095 US dollars per gallon in 2026-07-27 (obs 395595, obs 395594), 6 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is +0.1 US dollars per gallon, a robust z of 3.9 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is +0.036 US dollars per gallon per period against +0.0311 over the last 10, a divergence of 0.17 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run bdda8fbb-d2fd-4072-a290-81de66be936b. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observation [observation:409150] records the latest value of 4.157 US dollars per gallon on 2026-09-07. Observation [observation:395600] records the previous value of 4.071 US dollars per gallon on 2026-08-31. The model estimates a surprise_robust_z of 3.124 and an acceleration_slope_divergence of 0.1725 for this move.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal weekly variation around recent levels seen in [observation:395595] and [observation:395594].

Why now

The period 2026-09-07 shows periods_since_larger_move of 6 alongside a rarity_score of 0.21 and surprise_score of 0.8251.

What to watch

Subsequent readings of US regular gasoline retail price [observation:409150] and managed-money net positions in related futures [observation:409190].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
US consumer price index, energycategory321.15 index 1982-1984=100 (2026-08-01)+6.6 (+2.10%)obs 409142, obs 239965
US electric net summer capacitycategory1,304.57 million kilowatts (2026-05-01)+7.18 (+0.55%)obs 241167, obs 241166
US electricity net generationcategory354,690.53 million kilowatthours (2026-05-01)+23,984.01 (+7.25%)obs 245396, obs 245395
US planned generation capacitycategory291,137.9 MW (2026-07-01)+5,471.9 (+1.92%)obs 403873, obs 403872
US planned generation capacity, battery storagecategory65,262 MW (2026-07-01)+3,023.7 (+4.86%)obs 403821, obs 403820
US planned generation capacity, natural gascategory69,676.5 MW (2026-07-01)+1,381.4 (+2.02%)obs 403834, obs 403833
US planned generation capacity, solarcategory123,180.9 MW (2026-07-01)+847.6 (+0.69%)obs 403860, obs 403859
US planned generation capacity, windcategory24,323.4 MW (2026-07-01)+219.2 (+0.91%)obs 403886, obs 403885
US planned generation retirementscategory20 MW (2072-08-01)+18.8 (+1566.67%)obs 403974, obs 403973
US primary energy consumptioncategory7,414.83 trillion Btu (2026-05-01)+107.86 (+1.48%)obs 248499, obs 248498
WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positioncategory111,731 contracts (2026-09-08)+17,450 (+18.51%)obs 409188, obs 269064

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

7 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position: -7,261 contracts (-8.11%) to -96,742 contracts in 2026-09-08 (obs 409190, obs 271176)
  • US average retail electricity price: -0.05 cents per kilowatthour (-0.36%) to 13.83 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-05-01 (obs 245923, obs 245922)
  • US generation capacity additions: -3,311.9 MW (-52.63%) to 2,981.1 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 396968, obs 396967)
  • US generation capacity additions, battery storage: -1,875.5 MW (-62.87%) to 1,107.7 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 398336, obs 398335)
  • US generation capacity additions, natural gas: -287 MW (-96.63%) to 10 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 399704, obs 399703)
  • US generation capacity additions, solar: -525 MW (-21.98%) to 1,863.4 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 402440, obs 402439)
  • US generation capacity additions, wind: -616 MW (-100.00%) to 0 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403808, obs 403807)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US regular gasoline retail price observation (2027-09-07): a change no larger than the median annual change of -0.002 US dollars per gallon, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • US consumer price index, energy, currently 321.15 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-08-01 (obs 409142): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electric net summer capacity, currently 1,304.57 million kilowatts in 2026-05-01 (obs 241167): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US electricity net generation, currently 354,690.53 million kilowatthours in 2026-05-01 (obs 245396): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-09-07 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 409150) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
409150US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-074.16 US dollars per gallonprimaryGASREGW2026-09-14 00:04 UTC
395600US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-08-314.07 US dollars per gallonprimaryGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
395595US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-07-274.1 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
395594US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-07-204 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
395380US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2022-06-135.01 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
394164US regular gasoline retail priceUSA1999-02-220.907 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
409190Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-08-96,742 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-09-14 00:06 UTC
271176Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-01-89,481 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0236512026-09-07 20:00 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthourcounterESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245922US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-04-0113.88 cents per kilowatthourcounterESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
239965US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-07-01314.55 index 1982-1984=100supportingCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
241167US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-05-011,304.57 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
241166US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-04-011,297.39 million kilowattssupportingELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245396US electricity net generationUSA2026-05-01354,690.53 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245395US electricity net generationUSA2026-04-01330,706.52 million kilowatthourssupportingELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
396968US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-07-012,981.1 MWcounteradditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
396967US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-06-016,293 MWcounteradditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
398336US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-07-011,107.7 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
398335US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-06-012,983.2 MWcounteradditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
399704US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-07-0110 MWcounteradditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
399703US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-06-01297 MWcounteradditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
401072US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-07-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
401071US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-06-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
402440US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-07-011,863.4 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
402439US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-06-012,388.4 MWcounteradditions:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403808US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-07-010 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403807US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-06-01616 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403873US planned generation capacityUSA2026-07-01291,137.9 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403872US planned generation capacityUSA2026-06-01285,666 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403821US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-07-0165,262 MWsupportingplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403820US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-06-0162,238.3 MWsupportingplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403834US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-07-0169,676.5 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403833US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-06-0168,295.1 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403847US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-07-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403846US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-06-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403860US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-07-01123,180.9 MWsupportingplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403859US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-06-01122,333.3 MWsupportingplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403886US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-07-0124,323.4 MWsupportingplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403885US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-06-0124,104.2 MWsupportingplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWsupportingretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
248499US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-05-017,414.83 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
248498US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-04-017,306.97 trillion BtusupportingTETCBUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409188WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-08111,731 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0676512026-09-14 00:06 UTC
269064WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-0194,281 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0676512026-09-07 20:00 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-09-07",
  "change": {
    "pct": 0.021125,
    "value": 0.086,
    "observation_ids": [
      409150,
      395600
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 409150,
    "value": 4.157,
    "period": "2026-09-07"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "77ab54ef-a4d4-4f95-8a7f-74b7db4e054c",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US regular gasoline retail price",
    "slug": "us-gasoline-regular-price",
    "unit": "US dollars per gallon",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 395380,
      "value": 5.006,
      "period": "2022-06-13"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 394164,
      "value": 0.907,
      "period": "1999-02-22"
    },
    "abs_change": 0.086,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 0.095,
      "period": "2026-07-27",
      "observation_ids": [
        395595,
        395594
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 6
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.21,
    "breadth": 0.6111,
    "surprise": 0.8251,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.6122,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.6111,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -7261,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409190,
          "value": -96742,
          "period": "2026-09-08"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 271176,
          "value": -89481,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": -0.081146,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US average retail electricity price",
        "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
        "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
        "change": -0.05,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245923,
          "value": 13.83,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245922,
          "value": 13.88,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
        "change_pct": -0.003602,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
        "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
        "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
        "change": 6.595,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409142,
          "value": 321.148,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 239965,
          "value": 314.553,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
        "change_pct": 0.020966,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 7.176,
        "latest": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241166,
          "value": 1297.391,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.005531,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 23984.006,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245395,
          "value": 330706.52,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.072524,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -3311.9,
        "latest": {
          "id": 396968,
          "value": 2981.1,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 396967,
          "value": 6293,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
        "change_pct": -0.526283,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -1875.5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 398336,
          "value": 1107.7,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 398335,
          "value": 2983.2,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": -0.628687,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -287,
        "latest": {
          "id": 399704,
          "value": 10,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 399703,
          "value": 297,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": -0.96633,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 401072,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 401071,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -525,
        "latest": {
          "id": 402440,
          "value": 1863.4,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 402439,
          "value": 2388.4,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": -0.219812,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, wind",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-wind",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -616,
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    ],
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  "history": {
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  },
  "acceleration": {
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  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

48 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 67 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).