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US regular gasoline retail price · United States · as of 2026-10-05

US regular gasoline retail price (United States) fell 2.49% in 2026-10-05, an unusually large annual move

US regular gasoline retail price for United States was 4.35 US dollars per gallon in 2026-10-05, down 0.111 US dollars per gallon (-2.49%) from 4.47 in 2026-09-28; that change ranks in the 96th percentile of annual changes recorded since 1990-08-20.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US regular gasoline retail price

4.35US dollars per gallon-2.49%
Latest
4.35 in 2026-10-05 obs 411239
Previous
4.47 in 2026-09-28 obs 410818
Change
-0.111 US dollars per gallon
History
1880 observations, 1990-08-20 to 2026-10-05
40 points, 2026-01-05 to 2026-10-05
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
-3.87
Change percentile
96th of 1878 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
99th of earlier values
Median change
-0.002 (scale 0.0282, mad)
Second difference
-0.098 (z -3.93)
Slope divergence
-4.06
Rarity
last larger move 2 periods ago (2026-09-21)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.387
Confidence
64%
Status
expired
Discovered
2026-10-12 00:10 UTC
Expires
2026-11-11 00:10 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.96 × 0.18 = 0.173
Acceleration0.99 × 0.12 = 0.119
Breadth0.56 × 0.16 = 0.089
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.07 × 0.08 = 0.006
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.387
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of -0.111 US dollars per gallon is -3.9 robust standard deviations from the median annual change (1878 earlier changes), at the 96th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.96, weight 0.18, contribution 0.173.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -3.9; short-versus-long slope divergence -4.06. Component 0.99, weight 0.12, contribution 0.119.
  • Breadth: 10 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 8 moved the other way. Component 0.56, weight 0.16, contribution 0.089.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 2 periods ago, in 2026-09-21 (window 20 years). Component 0.07, weight 0.08, contribution 0.006.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.387, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US regular gasoline retail price, United States, is 4.35 US dollars per gallon for 2026-10-05 (obs 411239). The previous period, 2026-09-28, recorded 4.47 US dollars per gallon (obs 410818). The change is -0.111 US dollars per gallon, or -2.49%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1878 earlier annual changes since 1990-08-20, the median change is -0.002 US dollars per gallon and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 0.0282, giving a robust z-score of -3.9. The absolute change sits at the 96th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 99th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +0.159 US dollars per gallon in 2026-09-21 (obs 410508, obs 410399), 2 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -0.098 US dollars per gallon, a robust z of -3.9 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -0.062 US dollars per gallon per period against +0.0522 over the last 10, a divergence of -4.06 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 862f1a77-70e1-44c7-9b39-b7b5fa16e633. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

The data are consistent with an unusually large annual move as shown by the observed values [observation:411239] and [observation:410818]. The model estimates a surprise_robust_z of -3.8694 and acceleration_slope_divergence of -4.0558. A plausible mechanism is shifts in supply or demand reflected in related energy observations such as [observation:411273] and [observation:411275].

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal seasonal variation around recent observed levels in [observation:410818] and [observation:410508].

Why now

The move follows two periods without a larger change and coincides with updated futures positioning data in [observation:411273] and [observation:411275].

What to watch

Subsequent weekly readings of US regular gasoline retail price tied to [observation:411239] and managed-money net positions in [observation:411273].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Natural gas futures: managed-money net positioncategory-144,537 contracts (2026-10-06)-11,738 (-8.84%)obs 411275, obs 411182
US generation capacity additionscategory2,849.2 MW (2026-08-01)-135.4 (-4.54%)obs 410638, obs 410637
US generation capacity additions, battery storagecategory743.4 MW (2026-08-01)-364.3 (-32.89%)obs 410640, obs 398336
US generation capacity additions, solarcategory1,292.9 MW (2026-08-01)-574 (-30.75%)obs 410672, obs 410671
US planned generation capacitycategory288,543.9 MW (2026-08-01)-2,594 (-0.89%)obs 410680, obs 403873
US planned generation capacity, battery storagecategory64,402.9 MW (2026-08-01)-859.1 (-1.32%)obs 410676, obs 403821
US planned generation capacity, natural gascategory69,448.1 MW (2026-08-01)-228.4 (-0.33%)obs 410677, obs 403834
US planned generation capacity, solarcategory122,259.4 MW (2026-08-01)-921.5 (-0.75%)obs 410679, obs 403860
US planned generation capacity, windcategory23,753.9 MW (2026-08-01)-569.5 (-2.34%)obs 410681, obs 403886
WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positioncategory53,598 contracts (2026-10-06)-25,994 (-32.66%)obs 411273, obs 411180

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

8 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • US average retail electricity price: +0.65 cents per kilowatthour (+4.70%) to 14.48 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-06-01 (obs 410784, obs 245923)
  • US consumer price index, energy: +6.6 index 1982-1984=100 (+2.10%) to 321.15 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-08-01 (obs 409142, obs 239965)
  • US electric net summer capacity: +5.88 million kilowatts (+0.45%) to 1,310.44 million kilowatts in 2026-06-01 (obs 410776, obs 241167)
  • US electricity net generation: +44,980.76 million kilowatthours (+12.68%) to 399,671.29 million kilowatthours in 2026-06-01 (obs 410783, obs 245396)
  • US generation capacity additions, natural gas: +218.4 MW (+2184.00%) to 228.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410646, obs 399704)
  • US generation capacity additions, wind: +569.5 MW to 569.5 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410675, obs 403808)
  • US planned generation retirements: +18.8 MW (+1566.67%) to 20 MW in 2072-08-01 (obs 403974, obs 403973)
  • US primary energy consumption: +273.98 trillion Btu (+3.69%) to 7,702.12 trillion Btu in 2026-06-01 (obs 410806, obs 410805)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US regular gasoline retail price observation (2027-10-05): a change no larger than the median annual change of -0.002 US dollars per gallon, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position, currently -144,537 contracts in 2026-10-06 (obs 411275): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US generation capacity additions, currently 2,849.2 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410638): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US generation capacity additions, battery storage, currently 743.4 MW in 2026-08-01 (obs 410640): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-10-05 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 411239) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
411239US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-10-054.35 US dollars per gallonprimaryGASREGW2026-10-12 00:04 UTC
410818US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-284.47 US dollars per gallonprimaryGASREGW2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410508US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-214.48 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-28 00:04 UTC
410399US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-144.32 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-21 00:04 UTC
395380US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2022-06-135.01 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
394164US regular gasoline retail priceUSA1999-02-220.907 US dollars per galloncontextGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
411275Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-06-144,537 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-12 00:05 UTC
411182Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-29-132,799 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-10-05 00:04 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
410784US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-06-0114.48 cents per kilowatthourcounterESTCUUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthourcounterESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100counterCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
239965US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-07-01314.55 index 1982-1984=100counterCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
410776US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-06-011,310.44 million kilowattscounterELGBPUS2026-10-05 00:00 UTC
241167US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-05-011,304.57 million kilowattscounterELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410783US electricity net generationUSA2026-06-01399,671.29 million kilowatthourscounterELETPUS2026-10-05 00:02 UTC
245396US electricity net generationUSA2026-05-01354,690.53 million kilowatthourscounterELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
410638US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-08-012,849.2 MWsupportingadditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410637US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-07-012,984.6 MWsupportingadditions:total2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410640US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-08-01743.4 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
398336US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-07-011,107.7 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410646US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-08-01228.4 MWcounteradditions:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
399704US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-07-0110 MWcounteradditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410662US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-08-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
401072US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-07-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410672US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-08-011,292.9 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410671US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-07-011,866.9 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
410675US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-08-01569.5 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-10-01 00:00 UTC
403808US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-07-010 MWcounteradditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410680US planned generation capacityUSA2026-08-01288,543.9 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403873US planned generation capacityUSA2026-07-01291,137.9 MWsupportingplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410676US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-08-0164,402.9 MWsupportingplanned:battery_storage2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403821US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-07-0165,262 MWsupportingplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410677US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-08-0169,448.1 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403834US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-07-0169,676.5 MWsupportingplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410678US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-08-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403847US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-07-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410679US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-08-01122,259.4 MWsupportingplanned:solar2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403860US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-07-01123,180.9 MWsupportingplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410681US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-08-0123,753.9 MWsupportingplanned:wind2026-10-01 00:01 UTC
403886US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-07-0124,323.4 MWsupportingplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWcounterretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWcounterretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
410806US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-06-017,702.12 trillion BtucounterTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
410805US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-05-017,428.14 trillion BtucounterTETCBUS2026-10-05 00:03 UTC
411273WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-10-0653,598 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-12 00:05 UTC
411180WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-2979,592 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0676512026-10-05 00:04 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-10-05",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.02486,
    "value": -0.111,
    "observation_ids": [
      411239,
      410818
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 411239,
    "value": 4.354,
    "period": "2026-10-05"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "77ab54ef-a4d4-4f95-8a7f-74b7db4e054c",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US regular gasoline retail price",
    "slug": "us-gasoline-regular-price",
    "unit": "US dollars per gallon",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "weekly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "annual"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 395380,
      "value": 5.006,
      "period": "2022-06-13"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 394164,
      "value": 0.907,
      "period": "1999-02-22"
    },
    "abs_change": 0.111,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 20,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 0.159,
      "period": "2026-09-21",
      "observation_ids": [
        410508,
        410399
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 2
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.07,
    "breadth": 0.5556,
    "surprise": 0.9637,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.9892,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.5556,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -11738,
        "latest": {
          "id": 411275,
          "value": -144537,
          "period": "2026-10-06"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 411182,
          "value": -132799,
          "period": "2026-09-29"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": -0.088389,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US average retail electricity price",
        "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
        "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
        "change": 0.65,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410784,
          "value": 14.48,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245923,
          "value": 13.83,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
        "change_pct": 0.046999,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
        "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
        "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
        "change": 6.595,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409142,
          "value": 321.148,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 239965,
          "value": 314.553,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
        "change_pct": 0.020966,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 5.877,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410776,
          "value": 1310.444,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.004505,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 44980.759,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410783,
          "value": 399671.285,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.126817,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -135.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410638,
          "value": 2849.2,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410637,
          "value": 2984.6,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
        "change_pct": -0.045366,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -364.3,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410640,
          "value": 743.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 398336,
          "value": 1107.7,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": -0.32888,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 218.4,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410646,
          "value": 228.4,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 399704,
          "value": 10,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": 21.84,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410662,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 401072,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -574,
        "latest": {
          "id": 410672,
          "value": 1292.9,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 410671,
          "value": 1866.9,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": -0.307462,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
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    ],
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  "history": {
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  },
  "acceleration": {
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  "series_window": [
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  ],
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  },
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    "source": "not_wired"
  },
  "bottleneck_impact": {
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    "source": "not_wired"
  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

48 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 547 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).