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US generation capacity additions · United States · as of 2026-07-01

US generation capacity additions (United States) fell 52.63% in 2026-07-01, an unusually large monthly move

US generation capacity additions for United States was 2,981.1 MW in 2026-07-01, down 3,311.9 MW (-52.63%) from 6,293 in 2026-06-01; that change ranks in the 95th percentile of monthly changes recorded since 1891-01-01.

DerivedCandidateMetric page
What changed

US generation capacity additions

2,981.1MW-52.63%
Latest
2,981.1 in 2026-07-01 obs 396968
Previous
6,293 in 2026-06-01 obs 396967
Change
-3,311.9 MW
History
1368 observations, 1891-01-01 to 2026-07-01
40 points, 2023-04-01 to 2026-07-01
How unusual

Against its own history

Robust z
-6.54
Change percentile
95th of 1366 earlier absolute changes
Value percentile
89th of earlier values
Median change
-0.5 (scale 506.23, mad)
Second difference
-2,851.1 (z -3.60)
Slope divergence
-3.55
Rarity
last larger move 3 periods ago (2026-04-01)
Confidence and status

Record

Relevance
0.344
Confidence
57%
Status
published
Discovered
2026-09-14 00:12 UTC
Expires
2026-10-14 00:12 UTC
Model
relevance_v1+insight_text_v1
Validation
passed
Causal level
candidate

Candidate: no reviewed relationship supports a causal reading. Agreement among metrics is co-movement, not cause.

Why now

Relevance components

Derived
Statistical surprise0.98 × 0.18 = 0.177
Acceleration0.94 × 0.12 = 0.113
Breadth0.33 × 0.16 = 0.053
Graph centrality0.00 × 0.18 = 0.000
Forecast impactnot wired, 0 × 0.14
Bottleneck impactnot wired, 0 × 0.10
Historical rarity0.01 × 0.08 = 0.001
Public attentionnot wired, 0 × 0.04
Relevance0.344
  • Statistical surprise: the latest change of -3,311.9 MW is -6.5 robust standard deviations from the median monthly change (1366 earlier changes), at the 95th percentile of absolute changes. Component 0.98, weight 0.18, contribution 0.177.
  • Acceleration: second-difference z -3.6; short-versus-long slope divergence -3.55. Component 0.94, weight 0.12, contribution 0.113.
  • Breadth: 6 of 18 related metrics (same category, Energy) moved in the same direction as of their latest periods; 12 moved the other way. Component 0.33, weight 0.16, contribution 0.053.
  • Graph centrality: no graph entity carries a centrality value for this metric yet, so it reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.18, contribution 0.000.
  • Historical rarity: the last larger move was 3 periods ago, in 2026-04-01 (window 20 years). Component 0.01, weight 0.08, contribution 0.001.
  • Forecast impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.14, contribution 0.000.
  • Bottleneck impact: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.10, contribution 0.000.
  • Public attention: not wired yet; reads 0. Component 0.00, weight 0.04, contribution 0.000.

Relevance (relevance_v1) is the weighted sum of the components: 0.344, against a candidate threshold of 0.30.

Explanation

What changed and how unusual it is

Derived

What changed. The latest current observation for US generation capacity additions, United States, is 2,981.1 MW for 2026-07-01 (obs 396968). The previous period, 2026-06-01, recorded 6,293 MW (obs 396967). The change is -3,311.9 MW, or -52.63%. The metric is classified as contextual, so the change carries no better or worse reading on its own.

How unusual. Against the 1366 earlier monthly changes since 1891-01-01, the median change is -0.5 MW and the robust spread (scaled median absolute deviation) is 506.23, giving a robust z-score of -6.5. The absolute change sits at the 95th percentile of earlier absolute changes; the value itself sits at the 89th percentile of earlier values. The last larger move was +4,781.1 MW in 2026-04-01 (obs 396965, obs 396964), 3 periods ago.

Acceleration. The change in the change (second difference) is -2,851.1 MW, a robust z of -3.6 against earlier second differences. The slope over the last 3 periods is -1,886.35 MW per period against -87.06 over the last 10, a divergence of -3.55 change-scale units.

Templated from stored numbers, no AI. Citations link to the evidence table below.

AI explanation

Modeled interpretation

Modeled
Explanation generated from Humanity Vector's structured data and evidence graph. Calculations and source provenance are independently stored and viewable. Model grok-4.3, prompt version 1.0.0, run 631ea887-0c48-4980-a88f-00c5207e9dd1. Every number in this text was checked against stored evidence before display.

Explanation

Observed values are 2981.1 MW for 2026-07-01 [observation:396968] and 6293 MW for 2026-06-01 [observation:396967]. Component observations include battery storage at 1107.7 MW [observation:398336] versus 2983.2 MW [observation:398335], solar at 1863.4 MW [observation:402440] versus 2388.4 MW [observation:402439], natural gas at 10 MW [observation:399704] versus 297 MW [observation:399703], and wind at 0 MW [observation:403808] versus 616 MW [observation:403807]. The data are consistent with month-to-month variation in reported additions.

Alternative explanation (skeptic pass)

The data are consistent with normal variation in project completion timing across months.

Why now

The move appears in the 2026-07-01 observation with a large negative surprise_robust_z relative to prior periods.

What to watch

Next monthly US generation capacity additions [observation:396968], battery storage additions [observation:398336], and solar additions [observation:402440].

Affected systems

Supporting metrics

MetricLatestChangeEvidence
Natural gas futures: managed-money net positioncategory-96,742 contracts (2026-09-08)-7,261 (-8.11%)obs 409190, obs 271176
US average retail electricity pricecategory13.83 cents per kilowatthour (2026-05-01)-0.05 (-0.36%)obs 245923, obs 245922
US generation capacity additions, battery storagecategory1,107.7 MW (2026-07-01)-1,875.5 (-62.87%)obs 398336, obs 398335
US generation capacity additions, natural gascategory10 MW (2026-07-01)-287 (-96.63%)obs 399704, obs 399703
US generation capacity additions, solarcategory1,863.4 MW (2026-07-01)-525 (-21.98%)obs 402440, obs 402439
US generation capacity additions, windcategory0 MW (2026-07-01)-616 (-100.00%)obs 403808, obs 403807

No graph relationships cited; related metrics were found by shared category.

Counter-evidence

What points the other way

12 related metrics moved the other way as of their latest periods:

  • US consumer price index, energy: +6.6 index 1982-1984=100 (+2.10%) to 321.15 index 1982-1984=100 in 2026-08-01 (obs 409142, obs 239965)
  • US electric net summer capacity: +7.18 million kilowatts (+0.55%) to 1,304.57 million kilowatts in 2026-05-01 (obs 241167, obs 241166)
  • US electricity net generation: +23,984.01 million kilowatthours (+7.25%) to 354,690.53 million kilowatthours in 2026-05-01 (obs 245396, obs 245395)
  • US planned generation capacity: +5,471.9 MW (+1.92%) to 291,137.9 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403873, obs 403872)
  • US planned generation capacity, battery storage: +3,023.7 MW (+4.86%) to 65,262 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403821, obs 403820)
  • US planned generation capacity, natural gas: +1,381.4 MW (+2.02%) to 69,676.5 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403834, obs 403833)
  • US planned generation capacity, solar: +847.6 MW (+0.69%) to 123,180.9 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403860, obs 403859)
  • US planned generation capacity, wind: +219.2 MW (+0.91%) to 24,323.4 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 403886, obs 403885)
  • US planned generation retirements: +18.8 MW (+1566.67%) to 20 MW in 2072-08-01 (obs 403974, obs 403973)
  • US primary energy consumption: +107.86 trillion Btu (+1.48%) to 7,414.83 trillion Btu in 2026-05-01 (obs 248499, obs 248498)
  • US regular gasoline retail price: +0.086 US dollars per gallon (+2.11%) to 4.16 US dollars per gallon in 2026-09-07 (obs 409150, obs 395600)
  • WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net position: +17,450 contracts (+18.51%) to 111,731 contracts in 2026-09-08 (obs 409188, obs 269064)

3 related metrics have no comparable change and did not count either way.

Limits: the score compares period-over-period changes of current rows only; earlier vintages are not compared. Related metrics were found by shared category, not by a tested mechanism, so agreement among them does not establish cause.

What to watch

Measurable indicators

  • The next US generation capacity additions observation (2026-08-01): a change no larger than the median monthly change of -0.5 MW, or a move back the other way, would mean the latest change has normalised.
  • Natural gas futures: managed-money net position, currently -96,742 contracts in 2026-09-08 (obs 409190): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US average retail electricity price, currently 13.83 cents per kilowatthour in 2026-05-01 (obs 245923): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • US generation capacity additions, battery storage, currently 1,107.7 MW in 2026-07-01 (obs 398336): a move the other way lowers the breadth component.
  • Revisions: a revised 2026-07-01 value would arrive as a new observation row (the current row is observation 396968) and trigger a rescore.
  • Expiry: this insight expires 30 days after discovery unless a newer period supersedes it, and earlier if the relevance score falls below the threshold.
Evidence

Every number links here

Observed
ObservationMetricPeriodValueRoleSeriesIngested
396968US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-07-012,981.1 MWprimaryadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
396967US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-06-016,293 MWprimaryadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
396965US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-04-017,697.1 MWcontextadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
396964US generation capacity additionsUSA2026-03-012,916 MWcontextadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
396679US generation capacity additionsUSA2002-06-0120,812.2 MWcontextadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
395743US generation capacity additionsUSA1919-07-010.1 MWcontextadditions:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
409190Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-08-96,742 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-09-14 00:06 UTC
271176Natural gas futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-01-89,481 contractssupporting72hh-3qpy:0236512026-09-07 20:00 UTC
34846Population with access to electricityUSA2024100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
34847Population with access to electricityUSA2023100 percent of populationcontextEG.ELC.ACCS.ZS2026-09-07 05:31 UTC
245923US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-05-0113.83 cents per kilowatthoursupportingESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245922US average retail electricity priceUSA2026-04-0113.88 cents per kilowatthoursupportingESTCUUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409142US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-08-01321.15 index 1982-1984=100counterCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-14 00:01 UTC
239965US consumer price index, energyUSA2026-07-01314.55 index 1982-1984=100counterCUSR0000SA0E2026-09-07 09:53 UTC
241167US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-05-011,304.57 million kilowattscounterELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
241166US electric net summer capacityUSA2026-04-011,297.39 million kilowattscounterELGBPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245396US electricity net generationUSA2026-05-01354,690.53 million kilowatthourscounterELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
245395US electricity net generationUSA2026-04-01330,706.52 million kilowatthourscounterELETPUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
398336US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-07-011,107.7 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
398335US generation capacity additions, battery storageUSA2026-06-012,983.2 MWsupportingadditions:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
399704US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-07-0110 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
399703US generation capacity additions, natural gasUSA2026-06-01297 MWsupportingadditions:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
401072US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-07-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
401071US generation capacity additions, nuclearUSA2026-06-010 MWcontextadditions:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
402440US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-07-011,863.4 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
402439US generation capacity additions, solarUSA2026-06-012,388.4 MWsupportingadditions:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403808US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-07-010 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403807US generation capacity additions, windUSA2026-06-01616 MWsupportingadditions:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403873US planned generation capacityUSA2026-07-01291,137.9 MWcounterplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403872US planned generation capacityUSA2026-06-01285,666 MWcounterplanned:total2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403821US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-07-0165,262 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403820US planned generation capacity, battery storageUSA2026-06-0162,238.3 MWcounterplanned:battery_storage2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403834US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-07-0169,676.5 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403833US planned generation capacity, natural gasUSA2026-06-0168,295.1 MWcounterplanned:natural_gas2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403847US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-07-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403846US planned generation capacity, nuclearUSA2026-06-014,968 MWcontextplanned:nuclear2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403860US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-07-01123,180.9 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403859US planned generation capacity, solarUSA2026-06-01122,333.3 MWcounterplanned:solar2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403886US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-07-0124,323.4 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403885US planned generation capacity, windUSA2026-06-0124,104.2 MWcounterplanned:wind2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403974US planned generation retirementsUSA2072-08-0120 MWcounterretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
403973US planned generation retirementsUSA2065-12-011.2 MWcounterretirements:planned2026-09-07 22:01 UTC
248499US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-05-017,414.83 trillion BtucounterTETCBUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
248498US primary energy consumptionUSA2026-04-017,306.97 trillion BtucounterTETCBUS2026-09-07 09:54 UTC
409150US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-09-074.16 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-09-14 00:04 UTC
395600US regular gasoline retail priceUSA2026-08-314.07 US dollars per galloncounterGASREGW2026-09-07 21:58 UTC
409188WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-08111,731 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-09-14 00:06 UTC
269064WTI crude oil futures: managed-money net positionUSA2026-09-0194,281 contractscounter72hh-3qpy:0676512026-09-07 20:00 UTC
Feature packet (full inputs to the score)
{
  "as_of": "2026-07-01",
  "change": {
    "pct": -0.526283,
    "value": -3311.9,
    "observation_ids": [
      396968,
      396967
    ]
  },
  "latest": {
    "id": 396968,
    "value": 2981.1,
    "period": "2026-07-01"
  },
  "metric": {
    "id": "022316df-5782-4725-8042-596e16793322",
    "kind": "observed",
    "name": "US generation capacity additions",
    "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions",
    "unit": "MW",
    "direction": "contextual",
    "frequency": "monthly",
    "category_id": "e2b3c9f2-3475-4c3f-bfae-b89fe28a341e",
    "category_name": "Energy",
    "category_slug": "energy",
    "geography_default": "USA",
    "frequency_normalised": "monthly"
  },
  "rarity": {
    "prior_max": {
      "id": 396679,
      "value": 20812.2,
      "period": "2002-06-01"
    },
    "prior_min": {
      "id": 395743,
      "value": 0.1,
      "period": "1919-07-01"
    },
    "abs_change": 3311.9,
    "all_time_low": false,
    "largest_ever": false,
    "window_years": 20,
    "all_time_high": false,
    "window_periods": 240,
    "last_larger_move": {
      "change": 4781.1,
      "period": "2026-04-01",
      "observation_ids": [
        396965,
        396964
      ]
    },
    "largest_in_window": false,
    "periods_since_larger_move": 3
  },
  "scores": {
    "rarity": 0.0087,
    "breadth": 0.3333,
    "surprise": 0.9844,
    "centrality": 0,
    "acceleration": 0.9398,
    "forecast_impact": 0,
    "public_attention": 0,
    "bottleneck_impact": 0
  },
  "breadth": {
    "via": "category",
    "share": 0.3333,
    "related": [
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Natural gas futures: managed-money net position",
        "slug": "cot-natural-gas-managed-money-net",
        "unit": "contracts",
        "change": -7261,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409190,
          "value": -96742,
          "period": "2026-09-08"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 271176,
          "value": -89481,
          "period": "2026-09-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "weekly",
        "metric_id": "d586ac7a-7590-47d1-a7ba-39bc8c578b74",
        "change_pct": -0.081146,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "Population with access to electricity",
        "slug": "electricity-access",
        "unit": "percent of population",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 34846,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2024-01-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 34847,
          "value": 100,
          "period": "2023-01-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "annual",
        "metric_id": "a4f2f4c6-0df2-4e49-958d-b19169dd81de",
        "change_pct": 0,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US average retail electricity price",
        "slug": "us-electricity-retail-price",
        "unit": "cents per kilowatthour",
        "change": -0.05,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245923,
          "value": 13.83,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245922,
          "value": 13.88,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "6ab59fbd-f866-4bb1-a13d-7243cbec12b6",
        "change_pct": -0.003602,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US consumer price index, energy",
        "slug": "us-cpi-energy",
        "unit": "index 1982-1984=100",
        "change": 6.595,
        "latest": {
          "id": 409142,
          "value": 321.148,
          "period": "2026-08-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 239965,
          "value": 314.553,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "7b24046c-bfd1-4b8b-b180-90bbc83bbd6b",
        "change_pct": 0.020966,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electric net summer capacity",
        "slug": "us-electric-net-summer-capacity",
        "unit": "million kilowatts",
        "change": 7.176,
        "latest": {
          "id": 241167,
          "value": 1304.567,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 241166,
          "value": 1297.391,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "b5d93e82-4824-4255-a06f-f08bc1b9ccf1",
        "change_pct": 0.005531,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US electricity net generation",
        "slug": "us-electricity-net-generation",
        "unit": "million kilowatthours",
        "change": 23984.006,
        "latest": {
          "id": 245396,
          "value": 354690.526,
          "period": "2026-05-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 245395,
          "value": 330706.52,
          "period": "2026-04-01"
        },
        "direction": "higher_better",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "5ed23e8f-ae35-4193-a385-c6225c16aa05",
        "change_pct": 0.072524,
        "consistent": false,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, battery storage",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-battery-storage",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -1875.5,
        "latest": {
          "id": 398336,
          "value": 1107.7,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 398335,
          "value": 2983.2,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "04596896-7bd3-4a3b-86f9-1316df346a76",
        "change_pct": -0.628687,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, natural gas",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-natural-gas",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -287,
        "latest": {
          "id": 399704,
          "value": 10,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 399703,
          "value": 297,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "62edd549-e50a-4795-9640-b0888338bf90",
        "change_pct": -0.96633,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, nuclear",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-nuclear",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": 0,
        "latest": {
          "id": 401072,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 401071,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "573d20ff-a35d-42d9-a7ab-359965dd60cd",
        "change_pct": null,
        "consistent": null,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, solar",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-solar",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -525,
        "latest": {
          "id": 402440,
          "value": 1863.4,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 402439,
          "value": 2388.4,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "3bb03897-e28b-476c-896d-fc2c3844893a",
        "change_pct": -0.219812,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
        "via": "category",
        "name": "US generation capacity additions, wind",
        "slug": "us-generation-capacity-additions-wind",
        "unit": "MW",
        "change": -616,
        "latest": {
          "id": 403808,
          "value": 0,
          "period": "2026-07-01"
        },
        "previous": {
          "id": 403807,
          "value": 616,
          "period": "2026-06-01"
        },
        "direction": "contextual",
        "frequency": "monthly",
        "metric_id": "e1eff007-cb80-4eab-a953-e0f4c0e1176b",
        "change_pct": -1,
        "consistent": true,
        "relationship_ids": []
      },
      {
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    ],
    "opposite": 12,
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  "history": {
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  "acceleration": {
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  "bottleneck_impact": {
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  }
}

Component labels: Statistical surprise, Acceleration, Breadth, Graph centrality, Forecast impact, Bottleneck impact, Historical rarity, Public attention. Each stored score keeps this packet so it can be recomputed without the database.

48 observations, 22 metrics, relevance score row 53 (relevance_v1, features features_v1).