World · snapshot 2026-10-19 00:22 UTC · data to 2026-07-01
Copper and electrification
Can copper supply keep pace with grids, vehicles and data centres, or is a physical shortage forming?
Copper mine production was 23,000 thousand metric tons in 2025, unchanged over one year.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
AI narrative Modeled
Copper mine production was 23000 thousand metric tons in 2025, unchanged over one year [obs:263646] [obs:263631]. Copper price reached 13542.82086956522 US dollars per metric ton on 2026-07-01 from 9770.580434782609 one year earlier, a 38.6 percent rise at the 96th percentile of 1-year moves [obs:156369] [obs:156357].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Copper mine production
World mine output, USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries.
23,000 thousand metric tons
2025
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 23,000 (2024) | 0 (0.0%) | n/a |
| 1 year | 23,000 (2024) | 0 (0.0%) | n/a |
| 5 years | series too short | n/a | n/a |
| 10 years | series too short | n/a | n/a |
Copper price
Price is the fastest signal of tightness; it is not a measure of depletion.
13,542.82 US dollars per metric ton
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 13,552.04 (2026-06-01) | -9.22 (-0.1%) | 4th |
| 1 year | 9,770.58 (2025-07-01) | 3,772.24 (+38.6%) | 96th of 402 |
| 5 years | 9,450.82 (2021-07-01) | 4,092 (+43.3%) | 82nd of 354 |
| 10 years | 4,864.9 (2016-07-01) | 8,677.92 (+178.4%) | 99th of 294 |
- copper-reserves (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- copper-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
AI narrative Modeled
Latest mine production sits at the 50th percentile of the series history [obs:263631]. Zero periods have passed since a larger move, with insufficient history of 0 earlier changes against the 5 needed.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
- Latest value percentile
- 50th of 1 values
- Latest change percentile
- n/a
- Robust z of latest change
- n/a
- Largest move
- 0 periods since a larger move
- Record level
- no
- Previous comparable move
- none larger in the stored history
- Prior maximum
- 23,000 (2024, obs 263631)
- Prior minimum
- 23,000 (2024, obs 263631)
insufficient history: 0 earlier changes, 5 needed
Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
AI narrative Modeled
Documented mechanism: more delivered electricity needs more transformers, which need copper, aluminum and electrical steel [mechanism:7b69c9e2-c9b8-4af3-b743-9e249d7353d5]. Statistical model drivers: none stored. Hypotheses: none stored. Unknown: mine project lead times are not stored as a series; recycled copper supply is not ingested.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Documented mechanisms
- More delivered electricity needs more transformers, which need copper, aluminum and electrical steelEstablished relationelectricity-system → power-grid → power-transformer → copper
Model-supported drivers
No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).
Hypotheses
No candidate or hypothesized relationship touches this topic's entities.
Unknowns
- Mine project lead times (typically over a decade) are not stored as a series, so the timing of announced supply is not verifiable here.
- Recycled (secondary) copper supply is not ingested.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
AI narrative Modeled
Copper-reserve-years remains unpublished. Copper-top3-concentration has too short a history with only 2 observations against the 5 needed.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
- copper-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- copper-top3-concentration (WLD): too few observations, 2 observations, 5 needed
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
AI narrative Modeled
Reserves are not measured. Substitution lists aluminum for refined copper [obs:404024]. Imports, inventory, spare capacity and demand elasticity are not measured.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
copper-reserves is referenced but not available (see gaps). Reserves grow with price and exploration; they are not a fixed stock.
Refined copper
- aluminum Mechanism supported
- aluminum (Aluminum branch wiring and service entrance cable at a larger gauge.) Established relation
- aluminum (Aluminum windings, larger cross-section for the same current; common in distribution transformers.) Established relation
Aluminum substitutes in overhead lines and some windings, at a weight and loss penalty.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
copper-us-net-import-reliance is referenced but not available (see gaps). US net import reliance for refined copper.
Copper production top-3 country concentration
48.7 percent of world production · 2025 · yoy -0.4% · obs 404024
Lower concentration means a single-country disruption removes less supply.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Exchange warehouse stocks are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Smelter and mine spare capacity is not published as a series.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Thrifting and demand response to price are not measured here.
- copper-reserves (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- copper-us-net-import-reliance (USA): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
AI narrative Modeled
Copper mine production showed 0 percent year-over-year change [obs:263646]. US mining employment rose 0.1 percent year over year [obs:410827]. Corporate pulse heavy industry capex growth was -16.5 percent [obs:409139]. Bottleneck-pressure-copper is unpublished.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | Copper mine production Observed | 23,000 thousand metric tons (2025, obs 263646) | 23,000 (2024) | 0 (0.0%) |
| Workforce | US mining, quarrying and oil and gas employment Observed | 566.9 thousands of persons (2026-09-01, obs 410827) | 566.1 (2025-09-01) | 0.8 (+0.1%) |
| Corporate pulse | Corporate pulse: heavy industry capex growth Derived | -16.5 percent change yoy (2026-08-02, obs 409139) | n/a | n/a |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
- bottleneck-pressure-copper (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
AI narrative Modeled
No forecast is published for copper mine production. The copper price model estimates a base case of 14284.761927739839 US dollars per metric ton for 2027-07-01 with 80 percent interval 13324.023229703267 to 18945.980273939374 [forecast:c720d2c3-1d0b-483f-b034-5ffb43e146b6].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Copper price
Base case
14,284.76 US dollars per metric ton
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
18,945.98 US dollars per metric ton
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
13,324.02 US dollars per metric ton
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of copper-price (WLD) for 2027-07 is below 13,324 US dollars per metric ton or above 18,946 US dollars per metric ton, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 13,324 US dollars per metric ton and a 10 percent probability to a value above 18,946 US dollars per metric ton; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (13,543 US dollars per metric ton); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in copper-price between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The average historical change per period continues.
- copper-mine-production:WLD:1 (WLD): no active forecast, no active forecast record for this key
- copper-mine-production:WLD:2 (WLD): no active forecast, no active forecast record for this key
Section 8 of 9
What to watch
AI narrative Modeled
Copper mine production at 23000 thousand metric tons shows 0 percent year-over-year against threshold 2, status worsening [obs:263646]. Copper price at 13542.82086956522 shows 38.6082 percent year-over-year against threshold 20, status worsening [obs:156369]. Top-3 country concentration at 48.7 percent against threshold 50, status easing [obs:404024].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
On the worsening side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Mine output growing faster than about 2 percent a year keeps pace with historical demand growth.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
A price rise above 20 percent year over year would signal tightness beyond normal cycles.
On the easing side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
More than half of output (the series is in percent) from three countries concentrates disruption risk.
- copper-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
AI narrative Modeled
Copper-mine-production series have no champion, backtest or live evaluations yet. Copper-price backtest shows MAE 1137.305271042179 over 36 cutoffs, 75 percent interval coverage and 17 percent skill versus last value.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 2d02ba81, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Forecast | Champion | Backtest MAE | Skill vs last value | 80% coverage | Live evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| copper-mine-production:WLD:1 | none registered | no backtest | n/a | n/a | none yet |
| copper-mine-production:WLD:2 | none registered | no backtest | n/a | n/a | none yet |
| copper-price:WLD:12 | drift | 1,137.31 over 36 cutoffs | +17% | +75% | none yet |
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 50 · 2026-10-19 00:22 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 10
- AI narrative
- grok-4.3, run 2d02ba81-7eba-4bfc-a2f8-0e5ec3581ee3, prompt 1.0.0, 9 ids cited
- Earlier snapshots
- 42 (2026-10-12 00:12 UTC), 34 (2026-10-05 00:12 UTC), 26 (2026-09-28 00:12 UTC), 18 (2026-09-21 00:12 UTC), 10 (2026-09-14 00:14 UTC), 2 (2026-09-07 22:35 UTC)
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.