World · snapshot 2026-10-19 00:23 UTC · data to 2025

Orbital launch capacity

How fast is humanity's capacity to reach orbit growing, and how concentrated is it?

Orbital launch attempts was 324 launches in 2025, up 24.6 percent over one year.

Section 1 of 9

What changed?

Observed and derived series only. Changes are latest minus the value one, five and ten years earlier.

AI narrative Modeled

The data show orbital launch attempts at 324 launches in 2025 [obs:264037], up 64 launches or 24.6 percent from 260 launches in 2024 [obs:264038]. Successful orbital launches reached 315 in 2025 [obs:264034], up from 253 [obs:264035]. Humans launched to orbit remained at 28 people [obs:264031][obs:264032].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Primary series

Orbital launch attempts

Observed

Orbital launch attempts per year.

324 launches

2025

Span	From	Change	Percentile
1 period	260 (2024)	64 (+24.6%)	n/a
1 year	260 (2024)	64 (+24.6%)	n/a
5 years	series too short	n/a	n/a
10 years	series too short	n/a	n/a

Supporting series

Successful orbital launches

Observed

Successful orbital launches.

315 launches

2025

Span	From	Change	Percentile
1 period	253 (2024)	62 (+24.5%)	n/a
1 year	253 (2024)	62 (+24.5%)	n/a
5 years	series too short	n/a	n/a
10 years	series too short	n/a	n/a

Supporting series

Humans launched to orbit

Observed

People launched to orbit.

28 people

2025

Span	From	Change	Percentile
1 period	28 (2024)	0 (0.0%)	n/a
1 year	28 (2024)	0 (0.0%)	n/a
5 years	series too short	n/a	n/a
10 years	series too short	n/a	n/a

Supporting series

Orbital launch attempts by provider country

Observed

Launches by provider country.

324 launches

2025

Span	From	Change	Percentile
1 period	260 (2024)	64 (+24.6%)	n/a
1 year	260 (2024)	64 (+24.6%)	n/a
5 years	series too short	n/a	n/a
10 years	series too short	n/a	n/a

Section 2 of 9

How unusual is it?

The primary series against its own stored history (features_v1 rarity and surprise).

AI narrative Modeled

Latest value at the 100th percentile of the series' own history [obs:264038]. One period since a larger move. Insufficient history with only 1 earlier change recorded [obs:264039].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Orbital launch attempts

Derived

Latest value percentile: 100th of 2 values
Latest change percentile: n/a
Robust z of latest change: n/a
Largest move: 1 period since a larger move
Record level: no
Previous comparable move: none larger in the stored history
Prior maximum: 260 (2024, obs 264038)
Prior minimum: 221 (2023, obs 264039)

insufficient history: 1 earlier changes, 5 needed

Section 3 of 9

Why might it be happening?

Documented mechanisms, statistical model drivers, hypotheses and unknowns are kept apart.

AI narrative Modeled

Documented mechanisms: Launch capacity is vehicles times cadence, and vehicles come out of engines, alloys, propellant and precision manufacturing [mechanism:aace12dc-2d57-41ba-8ce0-bd656d8f2c16]. Unknown: Mass to orbit is not ingested, so launch counts understate the growth in delivered capacity. Unknown: Launch Library data are rate limited; a partial ingest leaves the latest year incomplete until the next run.

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Reviewed

Documented mechanisms

Launch capacity is vehicles times cadence, and vehicles come out of engines, alloys, propellant and precision manufacturing
Established relationspace-launch → launch-vehicle → rocket-engine → precision-manufacturing

Statistical

Model-supported drivers

Modeled

No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).

Candidate or hypothesized relationships

Hypotheses

No candidate or hypothesized relationship touches this topic's entities.

Not settled by stored data

Unknowns

Mass to orbit is not ingested, so launch counts understate the growth in delivered capacity.
Launch Library data are rate limited; a partial ingest leaves the latest year incomplete until the next run.

Section 4 of 9

What has not changed?

Fundamentals judged against the 10th to 90th percentile band of their own year-over-year changes (or of their levels when the history is short).

AI narrative Modeled

NASA contract obligations of 16016398593.27 US dollars sit inside the 10th to 90th percentile band of past changes over 17 changes since 2007-10-01 [obs:420570].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Series	Latest	Basis	Normal band (p10 to p90)	Historical range	Reading
NASA contract obligations Observed NASA contract obligations.	16.02B US dollars 2025-10-01, obs 420570	year-over-year change 231.55M (+1.5%) 17 past changes	-1B to 817.17M	12.21B (2013-10-01) to 16.13B (2022-10-01) since 2007-10-01; latest at the 94th percentile of levels	within its normal band
US Department of Defense contract obligations Observed Defense contract obligations.	395.13B US dollars 2025-10-01, obs 420556	year-over-year change -96.68B (-19.7%) 17 past changes	-29.09B to 40.37B	274.2B (2014-10-01) to 491.81B (2024-10-01) since 2007-10-01; latest at the 67th percentile of levels	outside its normal band

Section 5 of 9

What absorbs the shock?

Each buffer names the series or graph entity that evidences it, or says it is not measured.

AI narrative Modeled

Substitution: graph entity Launch vehicle lists 0 substitutes. Spare capacity, inventory and imports not measured. Diversification shown in orbital launch attempts by provider country [obs:264050]. Financing via NASA contract obligations [obs:420570].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Geographic diversification

Orbital launch attempts by provider country

Observed

324 launches · 2025 · yoy +24.6% · obs 264050

Launches by provider country.

Financing

NASA contract obligations

Observed

16.02B US dollars · 2025-10-01 · yoy +1.5% · obs 420570

Public demand for launch.

Substitution

Launch vehicle

graph

The graph records no substitute for this entity.

Substitutes recorded on the graph for launch vehicles.

Spare capacity

Not measured

No stored series evidences this buffer.

Pad and vehicle availability are not published as a series.

Inventory

Not measured

No stored series evidences this buffer.

Imports

Not measured

No stored series evidences this buffer.

Section 6 of 9

What response is underway?

Capacity pipeline, corporate pulses, capital spending and production series, with their year-over-year change.

AI narrative Modeled

NASA contract obligations at 16016398593.27 US dollars show year over year 1.5 percent [obs:420570]. US Department of Defense contract obligations at 395129859443.68 US dollars show year over year -19.7 percent [obs:420556].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Group	Series	Latest	Year earlier	Change
Capital spending	NASA contract obligations Observed	16.02B US dollars (2025-10-01, obs 420570)	15.78B (2024-10-01)	231.55M (+1.5%)
Capital spending	US Department of Defense contract obligations Observed	395.13B US dollars (2025-10-01, obs 420556)	491.81B (2024-10-01)	-96.68B (-19.7%)

The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.

Section 7 of 9

Scenarios

Base is the champion model's point estimate; upside and downside are the bounds of its 80 percent interval. No probability beyond the interval's own is assigned.

AI narrative Modeled

no forecast is published

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

No forecast published for this topic yet.

Section 8 of 9

What to watch

Each indicator is a stored series with a numeric threshold; the reading says which side of it the latest value sits on.

AI narrative Modeled

Orbital launch attempts at 324 launches with year-over-year percent 24.6154 against threshold 0, rising confirms easing [obs:264037]. Successful orbital launches at 315 launches with 24.5059 percent [obs:264034]. Humans launched to orbit at 28 people with 0 percent [obs:264031].

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

Orbital launch attempts

Observed

Year over year: +24.6% (2025)Threshold: 0%

On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing

Launch attempts rising year over year.

Successful orbital launches

Observed

Year over year: +24.5% (2025)Threshold: 0%

On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing

Successes rising confirms attempts are converting to capacity.

Humans launched to orbit

Observed

Year over year: 0.0% (2025)Threshold: 0%

At the threshold · rising confirms easing

People launched tracks crewed capacity.

Section 9 of 9

Forecast track record

Backtests are rolling-origin, out of sample; live evaluations compare published forecasts with the realised values.

AI narrative Modeled

no forecast keys for this topic, so there is no track record

Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 18b7492c, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.

No forecast keys are attached to this topic, so there is no track record to show.

The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.

Provenance

Snapshot: 56 · 2026-10-19 00:23 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
Gaps stated: 0
AI narrative: grok-4.3, run 18b7492c-b8a2-40a6-a014-7ec4e08e3e49, prompt 1.0.0, 11 ids cited
Earlier snapshots: 48 (2026-10-12 00:13 UTC), 40 (2026-10-05 00:13 UTC), 32 (2026-09-28 00:13 UTC), 24 (2026-09-21 00:14 UTC), 16 (2026-09-14 00:15 UTC), 8 (2026-09-07 22:36 UTC)

Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.