USA · snapshot 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · data to 2026-07-01
Semiconductor and AI infrastructure capacity
Is the physical capacity behind AI (fabs, power, materials) expanding fast enough to meet announced demand?
No stored series for silicon-metal-production yet (metric is registered but not published); the page shows what is available.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
AI narrative Modeled
silicon-metal-production (WLD) remains unpublished. Rare earth mine production reached 390000 metric tons in 2025 [obs:263991], up 10000 metric tons or 2.6 percent from 380000 metric tons in 2024 [obs:263978]. US nonresidential construction spending was 1286376 millions of dollars in 2026-07 [obs:179179], down 16298 millions or 1.3 percent from 2025 [obs:179167] yet up 441735 millions or 52.3 percent from 2021 [obs:179119]. US electricity net generation was 354690.526 million kilowatthours in 2026-05 [obs:245396], up 10656.561 million kilowatthours or 3.1 percent from 2025 [obs:245384].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 72262868, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Rare earth mine production
Magnet and process inputs.
390,000 metric tons
2025
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 380,000 (2024) | 10,000 (+2.6%) | n/a |
| 1 year | 380,000 (2024) | 10,000 (+2.6%) | n/a |
| 5 years | series too short | n/a | n/a |
| 10 years | series too short | n/a | n/a |
US nonresidential construction spending
Includes fab and data-centre construction.
1.29M millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 1.28M (2026-06-01) | 1,499 (+0.1%) | 14th |
| 1 year | 1.3M (2025-07-01) | -16,298 (-1.3%) | 17th of 282 |
| 5 years | 844,641 (2021-07-01) | 441,735 (+52.3%) | 88th of 234 |
| 10 years | 731,328 (2016-07-01) | 555,048 (+75.9%) | 78th of 174 |
US electricity net generation
The power the new load must come from.
354,690.53 million kilowatthours
2026-05-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 330,706.52 (2026-04-01) | 23,984.01 (+7.3%) | 63rd |
| 1 year | 344,033.97 (2025-05-01) | 10,656.56 (+3.1%) | 65th of 628 |
| 5 years | 320,180.96 (2021-05-01) | 34,509.56 (+10.8%) | 77th of 580 |
| 10 years | 316,866.99 (2016-05-01) | 37,823.53 (+11.9%) | 45th of 520 |
- silicon-metal-production (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
AI narrative Modeled
No primary series stored, so unusualness is not computed.
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Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
AI narrative Modeled
Documented mechanism: AI compute demand pulls on accelerators, memory, leading-edge fabs, and the electricity and water those fabs use via the chain ai-compute to semiconductor-fab to electricity-system [mechanism:b735fd46-d9c5-4c63-a93e-8b408410b01d]. Statistical model drivers: none stored. Hypotheses: AI compute affects economic output via productivity effects [rel:812f2c15-fcfa-420c-b874-302b1bf79647]. Unknown: no public series measures leading-edge wafer capacity; announced data-centre capacity is not the same as energised capacity.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 72262868, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Documented mechanisms
- AI compute demand pulls on accelerators, memory, leading-edge fabs, and the electricity and water those fabs useEstablished relationai-compute → ai-accelerator → semiconductor-fab → electricity-system
Model-supported drivers
No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).
Hypotheses
- AI compute affects Economic output Candidate
Proposed: productivity effects of AI compute on output. No mechanism reviewed and no evidence attached.
Unknowns
- No public series measures leading-edge wafer capacity; the site stores upstream materials and corporate pulses instead.
- Announced data-centre capacity is not the same as energised capacity; the gap between the two is not stored.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
AI narrative Modeled
R&D expenditure as share of GDP was 2.59737836465431 percent of GDP in 2023 [obs:102615], inside the 10th to 90th percentile band of past changes from -0.035262 to 0.075445 percent of GDP and inside the level band 1.961711 to 2.476088 percent of GDP. Researchers per million people was 1651.5851690472 in 2020 [obs:118861], outside the level band 1137.958671 to 1587.701882.
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| Series | Latest | Basis | Normal band (p10 to p90) | Historical range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R&D expenditure as share of GDP Observed R&D as a share of world GDP. | 2.6 percent of GDP 2023, obs 102615 | year-over-year change 0.0262 (+1.0%) 26 past changes | -0.0353 to 0.0754 | 1.92 (2007) to 2.6 (2023) since 1996; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| Researchers per million people Observed Researchers per million people. | 1,651.59 researchers per million people 2020, obs 118861 | level 6 observations | 1,137.96 to 1,587.7 | 1,080.91 (2000) to 1,651.59 (2020) since 2000; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | outside its normal band |
- oecd-industrial-production (WLD): no observations, no current observations for WLD
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
AI narrative Modeled
Imports, spare capacity, inventory and substitution are not measured. Diversification shows rare earth production top-3 country concentration at 89.7 percent of world production in 2025 [obs:409075]. Financing shows US real private fixed investment at 4551.12 billions of chained 2017 dollars in 2026-04 [obs:181431].
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Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
rare-earth-us-net-import-reliance is referenced but not available (see gaps). US net import reliance for rare earths.
Rare earth production top-3 country concentration
89.7 percent of world production · 2025 · yoy -1.1% · obs 409075
Three-country share of rare-earth output.
US real private fixed investment
4,551.12 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate · 2026-04-01 · yoy +3.9% · obs 181431
Real private fixed investment carries the build-out.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Fab utilisation is not published as a public series.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Accelerator and memory inventories are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Substitution between accelerator generations is not measured here.
- rare-earth-us-net-import-reliance (USA): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
AI narrative Modeled
Corporate pulse semiconductor capacity capex growth was 5.53 percent yoy in 2026-07 [obs:404028]. Corporate pulse ai infrastructure capex growth was 70.14 percent yoy in 2026-07 [obs:404026]. US future capacity pipeline 24 months was 109333.015 MW in 2026-07, up 14.5 percent yoy [obs:409101]. US real private fixed investment was 4551.12 billions of chained 2017 dollars in 2026-04, up 3.9 percent yoy [obs:181431].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 72262868, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Corporate pulse | Corporate pulse: semiconductor capacity capex growth Derived | 5.53 percent change yoy (2026-07-03, obs 404028) | n/a | n/a |
| Corporate pulse | Corporate pulse: ai infrastructure capex growth Derived | 70.14 percent change yoy (2026-07-03, obs 404026) | n/a | n/a |
| Capacity pipeline | US future capacity pipeline, 24 months Modeled | 109,333.02 MW (2026-07-01, obs 409101) | 95,452.66 (2025-07-01) | 13,880.36 (+14.5%) |
| Capital spending | US real private fixed investment Observed | 4,551.12 billions of chained 2017 dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (2026-04-01, obs 181431) | 4,380.47 (2025-04-01) | 170.65 (+3.9%) |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
AI narrative Modeled
No forecast is published.
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Section 8 of 9
What to watch
AI narrative Modeled
Corporate pulse semiconductor capacity capex growth at 5.53 percent yoy against threshold 0, rising confirms easing [obs:404028]. US future capacity pipeline 24 months at 109333.015 MW, year-over-year 14.5416 percent against threshold 0, rising confirms easing [obs:409101]. Rare earth production top-3 country concentration at 89.7 percent against threshold 80, falling confirms easing [obs:409075].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 72262868, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
A positive pulse means the curated semiconductor companies report capacity growing.
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Power for new load has to come from the generation pipeline.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
Concentration above 80 percent (the series is in percent) leaves magnet supply exposed to one policy decision.
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
AI narrative Modeled
No forecast keys for this topic, so there is no track record.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 72262868, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 3 · 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 3
- AI narrative
- grok-4.3, run 72262868-a4f5-4800-8025-0b1e3ac7fda7, prompt 1.0.0, 16 ids cited
- Earlier snapshots
- none
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.