World · snapshot 2026-10-19 00:23 UTC · data to 2025
CO2 and the energy transition
Is atmospheric CO2 still accelerating, and is the capacity being built enough to change that?
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean was 425.62 ppm in 2025, up 0.7 percent over one year, a move at the 96th percentile of its one-year changes.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
AI narrative Modeled
Atmospheric CO2 global annual mean reached 425.62 ppm in 2025 [obs:264263], up 2.83 ppm or 0.7 percent from 422.79 ppm in 2024 [obs:264262] at the 96th percentile of one-year moves; five-year change was 13.17 ppm or 3.2 percent [obs:411321] and ten-year change 25.97 ppm or 6.5 percent [obs:264253]. CO2 emissions per person stood at 4.69378456136626 tonnes in 2024 [obs:15882], up 0.016185 tonnes or 0.3 percent from 2023 [obs:15883]. Global surface temperature anomaly was 1.18 degrees Celsius in 2025 [obs:411317].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean
Global mean CO2, NOAA.
425.62 ppm
2025
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 422.79 (2024) | 2.83 (+0.7%) | 96th |
| 1 year | 422.79 (2024) | 2.83 (+0.7%) | 96th of 45 |
| 5 years | 412.45 (2020) | 13.17 (+3.2%) | 100th of 41 |
| 10 years | 399.65 (2015) | 25.97 (+6.5%) | 100th of 36 |
Global surface temperature anomaly (NASA GISTEMP)
Global temperature anomaly.
1.18 degrees Celsius vs 1951-1980
2025
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 1.28 (2024) | -0.1 (-7.8%) | 62nd |
| 1 year | 1.28 (2024) | -0.1 (-7.8%) | 62nd of 144 |
| 5 years | 1.01 (2020) | 0.17 (+16.8%) | 67th of 140 |
| 10 years | 0.89 (2015) | 0.29 (+32.6%) | 84th of 135 |
CO2 emissions per person
CO2 emissions per person.
4.69 tonnes CO2 per person
2024
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 4.68 (2023) | 0.0162 (+0.3%) | 17th |
| 1 year | 4.68 (2023) | 0.0162 (+0.3%) | 17th of 53 |
| 5 years | 4.7 (2019) | -0.0074 (-0.2%) | 12th of 49 |
| 10 years | 4.78 (2014) | -0.0835 (-1.7%) | 18th of 44 |
- co2-mauna-loa-monthly-mean (WLD): no observations, no current observations for WLD
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
AI narrative Modeled
The 2025 level is an all-time high in the stored series [obs:264262] and at the 100th percentile of history; the one-year change sits at the 96th percentile with robust z of 1.5007 and one period since a larger move [obs:264262].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
- Latest value percentile
- 100th of 46 values
- Latest change percentile
- 96th of 45 changes
- Robust z of latest change
- 1.50
- Largest move
- 1 period since a larger move
- Record level
- all-time high in the stored series
- Previous comparable move
- 2024: 3.44 ppm (obs 264262, 264261)
- Prior maximum
- 422.79 (2024, obs 264262)
- Prior minimum
- 336.85 (1979, obs 264217)
Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
AI narrative Modeled
Documented mechanisms: none stored. Statistical model drivers: none stored. Hypotheses: electricity system enables economic output and human health and longevity [rel:e401fb30-2d25-4455-adf6-5b1a95069d34] [rel:f913d900-026e-4232-b9aa-a617096de9f8]. Unknowns: world fossil generation and world capacity additions are not ingested; the lag from emissions to concentration to temperature is documented physics but not stored as a model here.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Documented mechanisms
No mechanism in the mechanisms table is linked to this topic yet.
Model-supported drivers
No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).
Hypotheses
- Electricity system enables Economic output Hypothesized
Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows productive uses (lighting, machinery, refrigeration, communications) that raise output per person. The catalog carries both series; no causal study is attached.
- Electricity system enables Human health and longevity Hypothesized
Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows refrigeration of vaccines and food, lighting in clinics, water pumping and a shift away from solid cooking fuels, all of which bear on mortality. The catalog carries both series; no study is attached.
Unknowns
- World fossil generation and world capacity additions are not ingested; the response section shows US series only.
- The lag from emissions to concentration to temperature is documented physics, but the site does not store a model of it.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
AI narrative Modeled
CO2 emissions per person year-over-year change of 0.016185 tonnes lies inside the 10th to 90th percentile band of -0.1017 to 0.128359 tonnes over 53 changes since 1970, with level inside 4.007067 to 4.700061 [obs:15882]; US primary energy consumption change of -42.95 trillion Btu lies inside -295.7042 to 362.9064 trillion Btu over 629 changes since 1973, with level inside 5918.4709 to 8388.1091 [obs:410806].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Series | Latest | Basis | Normal band (p10 to p90) | Historical range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CO2 emissions per person Observed Per-person emissions have been roughly flat for a decade. | 4.69 tonnes CO2 per person 2024, obs 15882 | year-over-year change 0.0162 (+0.3%) 53 past changes | -0.1017 to 0.1284 | 3.94 (1994) to 4.81 (2013) since 1970; latest at the 87th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| US primary energy consumption Observed US primary energy consumption. | 7,702.12 trillion Btu 2026-06-01, obs 410806 | year-over-year change -42.95 (-0.6%) 629 past changes | -295.7 to 362.91 | 5,241.8 (1975-06-01) to 9,521.53 (2025-01-01) since 1973-01-01; latest at the 66th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
AI narrative Modeled
Reserves not measured; inventory not measured; demand elasticity not measured. Substitution observed via US solar additions of 1292.9 MW and wind additions of 569.5 MW [obs:410672] [obs:410675]; storage via US battery additions of 743.4 MW [obs:410640]; diversification via lithium production top-3 country concentration of 72.4 percent [obs:404808].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
US generation capacity additions, solar
1,292.9 MW · 2026-08-01 · yoy -48.2% · obs 410672
Solar additions displace fossil generation, US.
US generation capacity additions, wind
569.5 MW · 2026-08-01 · yoy +42.0% · obs 410675
Wind additions, US.
743.4 MW · 2026-08-01 · yoy -29.5% · obs 410640
Battery additions, US.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
lithium-reserves is referenced but not available (see gaps). Lithium reserves for batteries.
Lithium production top-3 country concentration
72.4 percent of world production · 2025 · yoy -7.1% · obs 404808
Three-country share of lithium output.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Fuel stocks are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
- lithium-reserves (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
AI narrative Modeled
US future capacity pipeline modeled at 112974.47 MW with year-over-year growth of 21.2 percent [obs:410691]; lithium mine production 290000 metric tons with year-over-year growth of 30.6 percent [obs:263799]; nickel mine production 3900000 metric tons with year-over-year growth of 5.1 percent [obs:263830]; corporate pulse grid investment capex growth 30.02 percent [obs:409138].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity pipeline | US future capacity pipeline, 24 months Modeled | 112,974.47 MW (2026-08-01, obs 410691) | 93,240.11 (2025-08-01) | 19,734.37 (+21.2%) |
| Production | Lithium mine production Observed | 290,000 metric tons (2025, obs 263799) | 222,000 (2024) | 68,000 (+30.6%) |
| Production | Nickel mine production Observed | 3.9M metric tons (2025, obs 263830) | 3.71M (2024) | 190,000 (+5.1%) |
| Corporate pulse | Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growth Derived | 30.02 percent change yoy (2026-06-30, obs 409138) | n/a | n/a |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
AI narrative Modeled
Base case atmospheric CO2 global annual mean 428.3278188396271 ppm in 2026 with 80 percent interval 428.12378736087055 to 429.3346064102285, model holt; falsifier if first published 2026 value below 428.1 ppm or above 429.3 ppm; model assigns 10 percent probability below 428.1 ppm and 10 percent above 429.3 ppm [forecast:e88bc7e9-1ffa-443b-8817-efbb4a7dc400]. Base case 431.04719517189056 ppm in 2027 with interval 430.81780325422193 to 432.484753315668 [forecast:66ef1d95-417f-4418-80df-37e77d743f28]. Base case 439.20532416868093 ppm in 2030 with interval 438.8280895393724 to 441.8940423094441 [forecast:6d92f28e-2683-40d7-9836-eecdc585acda].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean
Base case
428.33 ppm
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
429.33 ppm
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
428.12 ppm
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of co2-global-annual-mean (WLD) for 2026 is below 428.1 ppm or above 429.3 ppm, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 428.1 ppm and a 10 percent probability to a value above 429.3 ppm; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (425.6 ppm); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in co2-global-annual-mean between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The smoothed level and trend at the cutoff persist over the horizon.
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean
Base case
431.05 ppm
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
432.48 ppm
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
430.82 ppm
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of co2-global-annual-mean (WLD) for 2027 is below 430.8 ppm or above 432.5 ppm, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 430.8 ppm and a 10 percent probability to a value above 432.5 ppm; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (425.6 ppm); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in co2-global-annual-mean between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The smoothed level and trend at the cutoff persist over the horizon.
Atmospheric CO2, global annual mean
Base case
439.21 ppm
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
441.89 ppm
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
438.83 ppm
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of co2-global-annual-mean (WLD) for 2030 is below 438.8 ppm or above 441.9 ppm, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 438.8 ppm and a 10 percent probability to a value above 441.9 ppm; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (425.6 ppm); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in co2-global-annual-mean between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The smoothed level and trend at the cutoff persist over the horizon.
Section 8 of 9
What to watch
AI narrative Modeled
Atmospheric CO2 global annual mean 425.62 ppm with year-over-year percent 0.6694 against threshold 0.6, status worsening [obs:264263]; global surface temperature anomaly 1.18 degrees Celsius against threshold 1.5, status easing [obs:411317]; US solar additions 1292.9 MW with year-over-year percent -48.1596 against threshold 0, status worsening [obs:410672]; lithium mine production 290000 metric tons with year-over-year percent 30.6306 against threshold 5, status easing [obs:263799].
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
Annual growth below about 0.6 percent (roughly 2.5 ppm) would be slower than the last decade.
On the easing side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
The anomaly against the 1.5 degree reference used in climate agreements.
On the worsening side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Solar additions growing year over year is the largest substitution channel in the stored data.
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Storage depends on lithium output growing faster than 5 percent a year.
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
AI narrative Modeled
For co2-global-annual-mean WLD at 1 year horizon champion holt backtest MAE 0.3138980665319373 over 16 cutoffs, 80 percent interval coverage 75 percent, skill versus last value 87 percent, no live evaluations yet; at 2 year horizon MAE 0.563228383256156 over 15 cutoffs, coverage 67 percent, skill 88 percent; at 5 year horizon MAE 1.4068605940130585 over 12 cutoffs, coverage 42 percent, skill 88 percent.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run 3b89b036, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Forecast | Champion | Backtest MAE | Skill vs last value | 80% coverage | Live evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:1 | holt | 0.3139 over 16 cutoffs | +87% | +75% | none yet |
| co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:2 | holt | 0.5632 over 15 cutoffs | +88% | +67% | none yet |
| co2-global-annual-mean:WLD:5 | holt | 1.41 over 12 cutoffs | +88% | +42% | none yet |
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 55 · 2026-10-19 00:23 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 2
- AI narrative
- grok-4.3, run 3b89b036-f3c2-4ee6-8e54-acdf26689dae, prompt 1.0.0, 22 ids cited
- Earlier snapshots
- 47 (2026-10-12 00:13 UTC), 39 (2026-10-05 00:13 UTC), 31 (2026-09-28 00:13 UTC), 23 (2026-09-21 00:14 UTC), 15 (2026-09-14 00:15 UTC), 7 (2026-09-07 22:36 UTC)
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.