World · snapshot 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · data to 2025
Global food supply
Is world food supply keeping ahead of population, and what happens to it if fertilizer gets scarce?
Cereal yield was 3,954.95 kg per hectare in 2024, down 6.5 percent over one year, a move at the 100th percentile of its one-year changes.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
AI narrative Modeled
Cereal yield fell to 3954.95 kg per hectare in 2024, down 276.07 kg per hectare or 6.5 percent from 2023 at the 100th percentile of one-year moves [obs:2946]. Cereal production rose 0.2 percent to 3133222740.92 tonnes [obs:296166]. Nitrogen fertilizer use rose 2.9 percent to 115205415 tonnes [obs:310359]. Prevalence of undernourishment fell 0.3 percentage points to 7.8 percent [obs:332415]. Food production index rose 1.4 percent to 115.78 [obs:321919].
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Cereal yield
Cereal yield per hectare, world.
3,954.95 kg per hectare
2024
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 4,231.01 (2023) | -276.07 (-6.5%) | 100th |
| 1 year | 4,231.01 (2023) | -276.07 (-6.5%) | 100th of 62 |
| 5 years | 4,123.57 (2019) | -168.62 (-4.1%) | 26th of 58 |
| 10 years | 3,894.46 (2014) | 60.48 (+1.6%) | 0th of 53 |
Cereal production
Total cereal output.
3.13B tonnes
2024
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 3.13B (2023) | 6.95M (+0.2%) | 3rd |
| 1 year | 3.13B (2023) | 6.95M (+0.2%) | 3rd of 62 |
| 5 years | 2.97B (2019) | 167.12M (+5.6%) | 40th of 58 |
| 10 years | 2.83B (2014) | 308.02M (+10.9%) | 28th of 53 |
Nitrogen fertilizer use in agriculture
Nitrogen fertilizer use.
115.21M tonnes of nitrogen
2024
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 111.99M (2023) | 3.22M (+2.9%) | 74th |
| 1 year | 111.99M (2023) | 3.22M (+2.9%) | 74th of 62 |
| 5 years | 108.51M (2019) | 6.7M (+6.2%) | 31st of 58 |
| 10 years | 107.98M (2014) | 7.23M (+6.7%) | 17th of 53 |
Prevalence of undernourishment
Share of people undernourished.
7.8 percent of population
2025
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 8.1 (2024) | -0.3 (-3.7%) | 44th |
| 1 year | 8.1 (2024) | -0.3 (-3.7%) | 44th of 24 |
| 5 years | 8.4 (2020) | -0.6 (-7.1%) | 25th of 20 |
| 10 years | 8 (2015) | -0.2 (-2.5%) | 0th of 15 |
Food production index
Food production index.
115.78 index 2014-2016=100
2024
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 114.15 (2023) | 1.63 (+1.4%) | 68th |
| 1 year | 114.15 (2023) | 1.63 (+1.4%) | 68th of 62 |
| 5 years | 106.09 (2019) | 9.69 (+9.1%) | 83rd of 58 |
| 10 years | 98.48 (2014) | 17.3 (+17.6%) | 70th of 53 |
Related insights: Cereal yield (World) fell 6.52% in 2024, the largest annual change in the recorded series
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
AI narrative Modeled
Latest cereal yield sits at the 87th percentile of its series history while the one-year change is the largest move stored, at the 100th percentile of past changes with robust z of -4.5412 [obs:2946].
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- Latest value percentile
- 87th of 63 values
- Latest change percentile
- 100th of 62 changes
- Robust z of latest change
- -4.54
- Largest move
- largest in the stored history
- Record level
- no
- Previous comparable move
- none larger in the stored history
- Prior maximum
- 4,231.01 (2023, obs 2946)
- Prior minimum
- 1,421.62 (1961, obs 3008)
Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
AI narrative Modeled
Documented mechanism is natural gas prices passing through ammonia into nitrogen fertilizer cost then crop yields and food supply [mechanism:7cd4f10f-d227-4795-b7b1-c99507f821bd]. Statistical model drivers for the 2-year horizon are lagged yield, world population, agricultural land area and cereal production [forecast:c8663db1-8952-4fe8-8d4b-cee53cee8d45]; the 5-year horizon uses the same set [forecast:906a30b9-e40c-41a8-88f4-6339f0543cb9]. Unknown: world fertilizer prices are not ingested so pass-through is documented but not measured. Unknown: regional harvest failures average out in world totals.
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Documented mechanisms
- Natural gas prices pass through ammonia into nitrogen fertilizer cost, crop yields and food supplyMechanism supportednatural-gas → ammonia → fertilizer → crop-production → food-system
Model-supported drivers
- cereal-yield:WLD:2: y[t-0] lag 1, contribution -0.0043 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:2: y[t-1] lag 2, contribution -0.0031 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:2: world-population lag 1, contribution -0.0024 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:2: agricultural-land-area lag 1, contribution 0.0004 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:2: cereal-production lag 1, contribution -0.0046 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:5: y[t-0] lag 1, contribution -0.0083 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:5: y[t-1] lag 2, contribution -0.0074 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:5: world-population lag 1, contribution -0.005 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:5: agricultural-land-area lag 1, contribution 0.0018 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
- cereal-yield:WLD:5: cereal-production lag 1, contribution -0.0092 log kg per hectare (statistical association, not causal)
Hypotheses
No candidate or hypothesized relationship touches this topic's entities.
Unknowns
- World fertilizer prices are not ingested, so the pass-through from gas to fertilizer cost is documented as a mechanism, not measured.
- Regional harvest failures average out in world totals; the world series can look stable while a region is not.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
AI narrative Modeled
Dietary energy supply per person at 3026 kcal per person per day lies inside its 2710.6 to 2994.6 band [obs:299878]. Agricultural land area at 4644887.33 thousand hectares lies inside its 4563014.422 to 4761430.456 band [obs:285613].
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| Series | Latest | Basis | Normal band (p10 to p90) | Historical range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dietary energy supply per person Observed Calories available per person per day. | 3,026 kcal per person per day 2024, obs 299878 | year-over-year change 9 (+0.3%) 23 past changes | 2 to 25.6 | 2,705 (2001) to 3,026 (2024) since 2000; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| Agricultural land area Observed Agricultural land area. | 4.64M thousand hectares 2024, obs 285613 | year-over-year change 2,816.58 (+0.1%) 62 past changes | -13,824.83 to 17,801.63 | 4.52M (1961) to 4.79M (2000) since 1961; latest at the 35th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| Land equipped for irrigation Observed Irrigated land share. | 354,701.15 thousand hectares 2024, obs 332389 | year-over-year change 557.14 (+0.2%) 62 past changes | 1,748.68 to 4,414.05 | 161,148 (1961) to 354,971.59 (2021) since 1961; latest at the 98th percentile of levels | outside its normal band |
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
AI narrative Modeled
Phosphate-rock-reserve-years, potash-reserve-years, potash-us-net-import-reliance, grain stocks-to-use ratios, storage capacity and feed-biofuel demand elasticity are not measured. Synthetic fertilizer lists 0 substitutes.
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Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
phosphate-rock-reserve-years is referenced but not available (see gaps). Phosphate reserve life at current output.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
potash-reserve-years is referenced but not available (see gaps). Potash reserve life at current output.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
potash-us-net-import-reliance is referenced but not available (see gaps). US net import reliance for potash.
Synthetic fertilizer
The graph records no substitute for this entity.
Substitutes recorded on the graph for fertilizer inputs.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Grain stocks-to-use ratios are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Storage capacity is not published as a world series.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Feed and biofuel demand response to price is not measured here.
- phosphate-rock-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- potash-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- potash-us-net-import-reliance (USA): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
AI narrative Modeled
Cereal production rose 0.2 percent year over year to 3133222740.92 tonnes [obs:296166]. Phosphate-rock-mine-production and potash-mine-production are unpublished.
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| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production | Cereal production Observed | 3.13B tonnes (2024, obs 296166) | 3.13B (2023) | 6.95M (+0.2%) |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
- phosphate-rock-mine-production (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
- potash-mine-production (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
AI narrative Modeled
Base case cereal yield is 4053.94 kg per hectare in 2025 with 80 percent interval 3939.36 to 4092.82 from the holt model [forecast:63b43c73-b457-4f3c-95fe-e2e0861f50ac]; base case 4026.42 kg per hectare in 2026 with interval 3926.86 to 4112.61 from the ridge model [forecast:c8663db1-8952-4fe8-8d4b-cee53cee8d45]; base case 4170.44 kg per hectare in 2029 with interval 4012.18 to 4364.12 from the ridge model [forecast:906a30b9-e40c-41a8-88f4-6339f0543cb9]. The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 3939 kg per hectare and a 10 percent probability to a value above 4093 kg per hectare for 2025.
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Cereal yield
Base case
4,053.94 kg per hectare
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
4,092.82 kg per hectare
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
3,939.36 kg per hectare
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of cereal-yield (WLD) for 2025 is below 3,939 kg per hectare or above 4,093 kg per hectare, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 3,939 kg per hectare and a 10 percent probability to a value above 4,093 kg per hectare; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (3,955 kg per hectare); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in cereal-yield between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The smoothed level and trend at the cutoff persist over the horizon.
Cereal yield
Base case
4,026.42 kg per hectare
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
4,112.61 kg per hectare
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
3,926.86 kg per hectare
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of cereal-yield (WLD) for 2026 is below 3,927 kg per hectare or above 4,113 kg per hectare, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 3,927 kg per hectare and a 10 percent probability to a value above 4,113 kg per hectare; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (3,955 kg per hectare); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in cereal-yield between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The lagged statistical associations estimated in the training window hold over the horizon.
- Assumption: Driver series used, lagged: world-population, agricultural-land-area, cereal-production. Their own future values are not forecast; only values known at the cutoff enter.
Cereal yield
Base case
4,170.44 kg per hectare
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
4,364.12 kg per hectare
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
4,012.18 kg per hectare
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of cereal-yield (WLD) for 2029 is below 4,012 kg per hectare or above 4,364 kg per hectare, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 4,012 kg per hectare and a 10 percent probability to a value above 4,364 kg per hectare; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (3,955 kg per hectare); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in cereal-yield between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The lagged statistical associations estimated in the training window hold over the horizon.
- Assumption: Driver series used, lagged: world-population, agricultural-land-area, cereal-production. Their own future values are not forecast; only values known at the cutoff enter.
Section 8 of 9
What to watch
AI narrative Modeled
Cereal yield at 3954.95 kg per hectare with year-over-year change -6.52 percent against threshold 0; rising confirms easing [obs:2945]. Prevalence of undernourishment at 7.8 percent with change -3.70 percent; falling confirms easing [obs:332415]. Nitrogen fertilizer use at 115205415 tonnes with change +2.87 percent against threshold -5; rising confirms easing [obs:310359].
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On the worsening side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Yield growth is what keeps output ahead of population on the same land.
On the easing side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
The share undernourished rising would mean supply gains are not reaching people.
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
A fall in nitrogen use of more than 5 percent would precede lower yields by a season.
- potash-reserve-years (WLD): not published, metric is registered but not published
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
AI narrative Modeled
Cereal-yield:WLD:1 champion holt shows backtest MAE 62.36 over 16 cutoffs, 80 percent interval coverage 81 percent, skill versus last value 13 percent. Cereal-yield:WLD:2 champion ridge shows MAE 72.74 over 15 cutoffs, coverage 87 percent, skill 29 percent. Cereal-yield:WLD:5 champion ridge shows MAE 142.21 over 12 cutoffs, coverage 42 percent, skill 44 percent. No live evaluations yet.
Written by grok-4.3 over the numbers in this snapshot only, validated against them (every figure and cited id had to be in the snapshot), run f2d54cd8, prompt 1.0.0. It adds no facts.
| Forecast | Champion | Backtest MAE | Skill vs last value | 80% coverage | Live evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| cereal-yield:WLD:1 | holt | 62.36 over 16 cutoffs | +13% | +81% | none yet |
| cereal-yield:WLD:2 | ridge | 72.74 over 15 cutoffs | +29% | +87% | none yet |
| cereal-yield:WLD:5 | ridge | 142.21 over 12 cutoffs | +44% | +42% | none yet |
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 4 · 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 6
- AI narrative
- grok-4.3, run f2d54cd8-be74-4ec0-ab6e-2f50740d9b9a, prompt 1.0.0, 15 ids cited
- Earlier snapshots
- none
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.