USA · snapshot 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · data to 2026-07-01
US electricity demand and grid capacity
Is US electricity demand outrunning the capacity being built to serve it?
US electricity net generation was 354,690.53 million kilowatthours in 2026-05-01, up 3.1 percent over one year, a move at the 65th percentile of its one-year changes.
No AI narrative in this snapshot: the sections below are the deterministic content only.
Section 1 of 9
What changed?
US electricity net generation
Net generation is the closest stored proxy for delivered demand.
354,690.53 million kilowatthours
2026-05-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 330,706.52 (2026-04-01) | 23,984.01 (+7.3%) | 63rd |
| 1 year | 344,033.97 (2025-05-01) | 10,656.56 (+3.1%) | 65th of 628 |
| 5 years | 320,180.96 (2021-05-01) | 34,509.56 (+10.8%) | 77th of 580 |
| 10 years | 316,866.99 (2016-05-01) | 37,823.53 (+11.9%) | 45th of 520 |
US electric net summer capacity
Installed capacity available at summer peak.
1,304.57 million kilowatts
2026-05-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 1,297.39 (2026-04-01) | 7.18 (+0.6%) | 86th |
| 1 year | 1,245.97 (2025-05-01) | 58.6 (+4.7%) | 100th of 254 |
| 5 years | 1,123.48 (2021-05-01) | 181.08 (+16.1%) | 100th of 250 |
| 10 years | 1,063.04 (2016-05-01) | 241.53 (+22.7%) | 93rd of 245 |
US industrial production index
Industrial output is the largest swing load.
102.99 index 2017=100
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 102.79 (2026-06-01) | 0.2071 (+0.2%) | 49th |
| 1 year | 101.89 (2025-07-01) | 1.1 (+1.1%) | 33rd of 1278 |
| 5 years | 100.25 (2021-07-01) | 2.74 (+2.7%) | 29th of 1230 |
| 10 years | 99 (2016-07-01) | 3.99 (+4.0%) | 25th of 1170 |
US generation capacity additions
Capacity that actually came online, from EIA-860M.
2,981.1 MW
2026-07-01
| Span | From | Change | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 period | 6,293 (2026-06-01) | -3,311.9 (-52.6%) | 95th |
| 1 year | 3,448.2 (2025-07-01) | -467.1 (-13.5%) | 60th of 1366 |
| 5 years | 3,366.3 (2021-07-01) | -385.2 (-11.4%) | 53rd of 1365 |
| 10 years | 3,427.2 (2016-07-01) | -446.1 (-13.0%) | 51st of 1358 |
Section 2 of 9
How unusual is it?
- Latest value percentile
- 85th of 640 values
- Latest change percentile
- 63rd of 639 changes
- Robust z of latest change
- 0.86
- Largest move
- 3 periods since a larger move
- Record level
- no
- Previous comparable move
- 2026-02-01: -56,728.57 million kilowatthours (obs 245393, 245392)
- Prior maximum
- 446,319.53 (2025-07-01, obs 245386)
- Prior minimum
- 139,589.44 (1973-04-01, obs 244759)
Section 3 of 9
Why might it be happening?
Documented mechanisms
- More delivered electricity needs more transformers, which need copper, aluminum and electrical steelEstablished relationelectricity-system → power-grid → power-transformer → copper
Model-supported drivers
No active forecast for this topic records driver contributions (the champion may be a baseline with no drivers).
Hypotheses
- Electricity system enables Economic output Hypothesized
Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows productive uses (lighting, machinery, refrigeration, communications) that raise output per person. The catalog carries both series; no causal study is attached.
- Electricity system enables Human health and longevity Hypothesized
Stated, not yet evidenced here: electricity access allows refrigeration of vaccines and food, lighting in clinics, water pumping and a shift away from solid cooking fuels, all of which bear on mortality. The catalog carries both series; no study is attached.
Unknowns
- Data-center load growth is announced, not metered; the stored series cannot separate it from other demand.
- Interconnection queue withdrawal rates are not ingested, so the share of the planned pipeline that completes is not known from stored data.
Section 4 of 9
What has not changed?
| Series | Latest | Basis | Normal band (p10 to p90) | Historical range | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US average retail electricity price Observed Average retail price; a demand squeeze shows up here first. | 13.83 cents per kilowatthour 2026-05-01, obs 245923 | year-over-year change 0.7 (+5.3%) 514 past changes | -0.097 to 0.77 | 3 (1976-07-01) to 14.36 (2025-07-01) since 1976-07-01; latest at the 98th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| US capacity utilization Observed Industrial capacity utilisation. | 76.29 percent of capacity 2026-07-01, obs 165743 | year-over-year change -0.1119 (-0.1%) 702 past changes | -4.61 to 3.79 | 64.08 (2020-04-01) to 89.39 (1967-01-01) since 1967-01-01; latest at the 20th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
| Population with access to electricity Observed Share of people with electricity, world. | 91.93 percent of population 2024, obs 28425 | year-over-year change 0.323 (+0.4%) 25 past changes | 0.2347 to 1.13 | 73.2 (1998) to 91.93 (2024) since 1998; latest at the 100th percentile of levels | within its normal band |
Section 5 of 9
What absorbs the shock?
US electric net summer capacity
1,304.57 million kilowatts · 2026-05-01 · yoy +4.7% · obs 241167
Nameplate capacity above peak demand is the first buffer; the stored series is the total, not the reserve margin.
1,107.7 MW · 2026-07-01 · yoy -33.9% · obs 398336
Battery additions shift energy within the day; they do not add annual energy.
Power transformer
US federal funds effective rate
3.63 percent · 2026-08-01 · yoy -16.2% · obs 169072
The policy rate sets the cost of capital for generation and grid projects.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Cross-border power imports are not ingested.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Transformer and switchgear inventories are not published as a series.
Not measured
No stored series evidences this buffer.
Price response of demand is not measured here.
Section 6 of 9
What response is underway?
| Group | Series | Latest | Year earlier | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Capacity pipeline | US future capacity pipeline, 24 months Modeled | 109,333.02 MW (2026-07-01, obs 409101) | 95,452.66 (2025-07-01) | 13,880.36 (+14.5%) |
| Capacity pipeline | US capacity response, electricity Modeled | 0.9408 ratio (2026-07-01, obs 409127) | 0.9414 (2025-07-01) | -0.0006 (-0.1%) |
| Capacity pipeline | US planned generation retirements Observed | 20 MW (2072-08-01, obs 403974) | 1.2 (2065-12-01) | 18.8 (+1566.7%) |
| Corporate pulse | Corporate pulse: grid investment capex growth Derived | 35.21 percent change yoy (2025-12-31, obs 404027) | n/a | n/a |
| Capital spending | US nonresidential construction spending Observed | 1.29M millions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate (2026-07-01, obs 179179) | 1.3M (2025-07-01) | -16,298 (-1.3%) |
The US pipeline and response measures are on the capacity page; bottleneck assessments are on bottlenecks.
Section 7 of 9
Scenarios
US electricity net generation
Base case
360,015.28 million kilowatthours
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
374,291.78 million kilowatthours
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
350,484.28 million kilowatthours
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of us-electricity-net-generation (USA) for 2027-05 is below 350,484 million kilowatthours or above 374,292 million kilowatthours, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 350,484 million kilowatthours and a 10 percent probability to a value above 374,292 million kilowatthours; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is above the last observed value (354,691 million kilowatthours); a realised value at or below that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in us-electricity-net-generation between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The average historical change per period continues.
US electricity net generation
Base case
334,985.6 million kilowatthours
The point estimate: the model's central path.
Upside
354,002.5 million kilowatthours
Upper bound of the interval: what would need to go better than the central path.
Downside
331,672.45 million kilowatthours
Lower bound of the interval: what would need to go worse than the central path.
The model assigns 80 percent to the interval; the site assigns no other probability.
Falsifiers and assumptions
- If the first published value of us-electricity-net-generation (USA) for 2026-11 is below 331,672 million kilowatthours or above 354,003 million kilowatthours, the 80 percent interval is falsified.
- The model assigns a 10 percent probability to a value below 331,672 million kilowatthours and a 10 percent probability to a value above 354,003 million kilowatthours; interval misses should occur about one time in five over many forecasts, and a run of misses well above that rate falsifies the calibration.
- The point forecast is below the last observed value (354,691 million kilowatthours); a realised value at or above that level falsifies the direction call.
- Assumption: No structural break in us-electricity-net-generation between the data cutoff and the target period.
- Assumption: The source keeps publishing the series on the same definition; a rebasing or redefinition invalidates the comparison.
- Assumption: The seasonal pattern of the last year repeats.
Section 8 of 9
What to watch
On the easing side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
A growing 24-month pipeline means additions are being brought forward faster than they complete.
On the worsening side of the threshold · rising confirms easing
Completed additions rising year over year confirm the pipeline is converting.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
Fewer planned retirements keeps existing capacity on the system while new capacity arrives.
On the worsening side of the threshold · falling confirms easing
Retail price growth above general inflation would signal the squeeze is reaching consumers.
Section 9 of 9
Forecast track record
| Forecast | Champion | Backtest MAE | Skill vs last value | 80% coverage | Live evaluations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| us-electricity-net-generation:USA:12 | drift | 9,312.13 over 36 cutoffs | +14% | +89% | none yet |
| us-electricity-net-generation:USA:6 | seasonal_naive | 11,292.1 over 42 cutoffs | +71% | +86% | none yet |
The full scorecard is at /forecasts/scorecard.
Provenance
- Snapshot
- 1 · 2026-09-07 22:35 UTC · navigator_view_v1+navigator_topics_v1
- Gaps stated
- 0
- AI narrative
- none
- Earlier snapshots
- none
Every value on this page is a stored observation (obs ids shown), a forecast record, a mechanism or a relationship row, or a percentile computed from those the same way the relevance engine computes its features. Series the config references but the site does not store are listed as gaps under their section, never filled in.